Economic activity remains solid. The median forecast of economists participating in the Blue Chip survey is that real economic growth will slow from 3.7% in 1997:IVQ to a still healthy 2.4% in 1998:IQ. Expectations of further declines in net exports and slower inventory accumulation generally underlie forecasts of weaker near-term growth. Domestic demand is likely to remain brisk. Moreover, 86% of the Blue Chip participants anticipate that real economic growth for all of 1998 will exceed 2.5%, a rate associated with more sanguine estimates of the economy’s long-term growth potential.
Suggested citation: “Economic Activity,” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends, no. 98-04, pp. 10-11, 04.01.1998.