Advance estimates released by the Commerce Department in late April show real GDP rising 5.6% in the first quarter - the largest gain in nearly 10 years and one that substantially exceeded expectations. Economists participating in April's Blue Chip survey were anticipating a 3.1% growth rate. Although the Commerce Department's advance estimates are constructed with preliminary and incomplete data, an analysis of past GDP revisions suggests that the preestimate of the first-quarter growth rate (to be released in May and June) will not fall below 5.0%
Suggested citation: “Economic Activity,” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends, no. 97-05, pp. 10-11, 05.01.1997.