2012 Economic Trends
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How Long Will QE3 Last?
In September, the Federal Open Market Committee announced what has widely been referred to as QE3 (quantitative easing 3). Read More
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The Labor Market: Then and Now
While the third-quarter's real GDP growth rate of 2.7 percent was an improvement over the second quarter's 1.3 percent, it may turn out to be the best in a lackluster year. Read More
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Foreign Banks in the United States
Currently, banks from 57 countries have offices in the United States. Up until the beginning of the financial crisis, the liability and asset holdings of these foreign bank offices had been increasing. Read More
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A Decade of Hard Times in Places that Rely on Manufacturing Employment
While the fraction of people employed in the manufacturing sector has declined greatly in the United States over time, manufacturing still makes up a large fraction of employment in some parts of the country. Read More
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Market Sectors and the Decline in Average Hours Worked
Since the 1960s, the average number of hours worked has been decreasing in the U.S. Read More
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Moonlighting
For some workers, one job isn't enough. Read More
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What Can We Glean from October’s Report on Retail Prices?
The CPI rose October, as gasoline prices posted a modest decrease and general price pressure elsewhere in the retail market basket was fairly tame. Read More
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Confidence and Consumption Show Signs of Life
Since the end of the recent recession, the economy has been struggling to regain a solid footing and return to precrisis levels of employment and GDP. Read More
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Displaced Workers and the Great Recession
The Great Recession lasted six quarters and as we all know, it took a large toll on the labor market. Read More
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Private Fixed Investment: Not Rebounding as Fast This Time Around
Investment is a key factor influencing economic growth. Read More
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Tracking Recent Levels of Financial Stress
In early 2012, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland began a monthly release of the Cleveland Financial Stress Index (CFSI). Read More
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The Evolution of the FOMC’s Economic Projections in 2012
Along with the September meeting statement, the Federal Open Market Committee also released its updated projections for key economic indicators. Read More
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The Burden of Public Debt
The overall public-debt burden of the world's most advanced countries is approaching levels not seen since the Second World War-levels that could damage their future growth prospects. Read More
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Is the Housing Recovery Finally on a Solid Foundation?
After three years of temporary upturns and recurrent declines, housing prices appear to have finally entered a sustainable recovery. Read More
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Changes in Household Borrowing across Metropolitan Areas
Much of the increase in household debt last decade was driven by mortgage borrowing, which accounts for between 70 and 80 percent of U.S. household liabilities. Read More
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New Fed Policies and Market-Based Inflation Expectations
Market-based measures of inflation expectations reflect what investors anticipate inflation will be in the future. Read More
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Regional Differences in Science and Engineering Schooling and Employment
Differences in human capital across regions are associated with differences in economic performance. Read More
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Estimating Real GDP Growth Trends
The economy continues to expand at a slow pace. Real GDP rose at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the second quarter of 2012, down from 2 percent in the first quarter. Read More
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Consumer Finances and a Sustainable Recovery
Three rounds of quantitative easing since the official end of the recession 39 months ago testify to the fact that the economy is languishing. Read More
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A Snapshot of Bank Soundness
Recent reports indicate that banks are on much sounder footing than they were a few years ago. Read More
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Balance Sheet Implications of New Fed Policies
Since the target federal funds rate bottomed out near its zero lower bound during the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has been an important policy tool. Read More
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Long-Term Population Changes Within Cities
How have population growth and population decline played out within cities over the past 30 years? Read More
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Delaying Enrollment and College Completion
The effect of a postsecondary education on labor market outcomes has been a central focus for policymakers and researchers. Read More
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Policy Rule Changes
One area of active interest for both policymakers and market watchers is to find a simple rule (or rule of thumb) that approximates Fed policy on interest rates. Read More
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Behind the Strength in Exports
The ratio of exports to GDP has been growing at a far faster rate in the current recovery than in an average one. Read More
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The Great Recession’s Impact on Hours Worked and Employment
Employers can respond to the economy by hiring, not hiring, or firing employees, as well as by choosing the hours worked by employees. Read More
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Bank-Holding Companies in the Last Decade
Generally speaking, a bank-holding company (BHC) is a company that controls more than 25 percent of the voting securities of an FDIC-insured bank. Read More
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Is Moderate Growth the New Normal?
Since the end of the recession, the economy has expanded at a slow pace. Read More
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Beyond the Unemployment Rate: Long-term Unemployment
The unemployment rate has been above 8 percent since February 2009, the longest stretch since the 1950s. Read More
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A Look at Ohio’s Foreign-Born Population
The number of immigrants living in the United States has been growing at a faster pace in recent decades. Read More
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Municipal Borrowing Trends in the Fourth District
One distinct characteristic of the recent slow recovery has been financial strain of state and, especially, local governments. Read More
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A Tale of Two Types of Credit
Since the financial crisis in late 2008, the level of total real consumer credit outstanding has fallen 4.5 percent. Read More
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Troubled Waters and the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending Scheme
With economies drifting into the doldrums, central banks are looking for ways to hoist more sail. Read More
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The Evolving State of the Fed’s Security Holdings
Prior to the financial crisis, the Fed's security holdings were restricted to a mix of Treasury securities, which consisted of a combination of short-term bills and longer-term notes and bonds. Read More
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A Slow Recovery in the Banking Sector
Ever since the National Bureau of Economic Research called an end to the Great Recession in June 2009, the U.S. banking system has been engaged in a slow and fragile recovery. Read More
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How Many U.S. Mortgages Are Linked to Libor?
The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, has served as a baseline for many bank-to-bank transactions in U.S. dollars since it was established in 1986. Read More
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Fourth District Labor Markets: Cleveland's Puzzling Data
The labor markets of different regions have not all recovered from the Great Recession at the same rate. Read More
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Durable Goods Consumption and GDP
Purchases of durable goods make up a small part of overall consumption, but forecasters pay attention to it because it is thought to give a hint about where GDP is headed in the next quarter. Read More
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Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations
The inflation question on everyone's mind is whether the recent pace of inflation will continue in the short and long term. Read More
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Variation in State GDP Growth during the Recovery
The recovery from the U.S. recession has not been uniform across the 50 states. Read More
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Consumer Deleveraging May Be Over
The recently published results of the Federal Reserve's triennial 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances show that many families cut up their credit cards during the financial crisis. Read More
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A Quick Look at Fed Forecasting
During the Chairman's recent press conferences, the first topic that he addressed was the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) set of economic projections. Read More
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Wide Variation in House Price Decline Across the Country
Since the peak of the housing market, which occurred in mid-2006 according to the Case-Shiller 10-city and 20-city composite indices, housing markets across the United States have seen large declines in home prices. Read More
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A Historical Perspective on the Current Recovery
The second estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2011 came in at 1.9 percent, a decrease from the previously estimated 2.2 percent. Read More
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Weekly Hours Worked: Another Recession Casualty
Many aspects of the labor market have yet to return to their pre-recession levels in the economic recovery. Read More
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Subdued Business Lending
The financial crisis and subsequent recession caused bank profitability to decline significantly. Read More
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On Target
The CPI was flat in April, largely because falling gasoline prices offset modest increases elsewhere in the basket. Read More
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Measuring Small Business Employment over the Business Cycle
Many analysts have tried to understand why the pace of job growth has been so slow since the end of the Great Recession. Read More
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Monetary Policy and the FOMC’s Economic Projections
The Federal Reserve has further increased its transparency over the last couple of years. Read More
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Labor Markets: Glass Half Empty…Glass Half Empty
The April 2012 employment report offered a mixed bag of results. Read More
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A Return to Lower Levels of Investment Activity
Economic growth continues to be modest compared to previous recoveries. Read More
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Regional Differences in Household Income
Statistics on the distribution of personal income by region can be helpful context for thinking about many important questions. Read More
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Strategically Distressed
It has been over two-and-a-half years since the National Bureau of Economic Research called an end to the recession that began in late 2007. Read More
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Bank Capitalization
Over the last 20 years, the financial sector has become larger, more complex, and more interconnected. Read More
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Slow Employment Recoveries, Monetary Policy, and Expected Inflation
Since the early 1990s, employment growth has been persistently slow coming out of recessions. Read More
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Is the Renminbi Challenging the Dollar’s Reserve Status?
Since its inception in 1999, the euro has gained ground against the dollar as an official reserve-a currency that foreign governments hold to facilitate their transactions in foreign-exchange markets. Read More
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Income Growth in the Fourth District Since 1970
For the 100 largest U.S. metro areas in 1970, two factors explain almost a third of the variation in median household income growth over the subsequent 40 years. Read More
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Market-based Inflation Expectations
Some prices and price indexes have shot up recently, but measures of core inflation have remained low. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 5 percent in annualized terms from January to February and 2.9 percent over the previous year. Read More
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An Elusive Relation between Unemployment and GDP Growth: Okun’s Law
The unemployment rate fell from 9.1 percent to 8.3 in 2011, but real GDP grew only 1.6 percent. That is much lower than its average growth of 2.6 percent since 1985. Read More
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New York Fed Breaks Up with Maiden II
Back when the financial crisis was in full swing, a number of simultaneously exploding problems struck at AIG (American International Group). Read More
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The Shrinking Government Sector
The run-up in government expenditures during the recent financial crisis has led some to believe that growth in the government sector is far outpacing the economy. Read More
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The Availability and Profitability of Credit Cards
Following a peak at 14 percent in the first quarter of 2010, credit card interest rates have fallen over the past two years. Read More
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European Liquidity Strains
After peaking last summer, the level of reserves held at the Federal Reserve has declined. Read More
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Educational Attainment and Earnings
Median household income growth has slowed in the United States over the last decade. Read More
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Do Leading Indicators Help Predict GDP Growth Rates?
The latest GDP estimate leaves real GDP growth for 2011 far below 2010's growth rate and further emphasizes the uneven nature of the current recovery. Read More
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Starting Off on the Wrong Foot: Early Careers and High Unemployment
Younger workers typically face a higher rate of unemployment than older workers, and after the last recession, the gap has only grown wider. Read More
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Distressed Sales and Housing Prices
Has the housing market stabilized, or are housing prices still on a downward trajectory? Read More
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Adjustments to Seasonal Factors Alter Inflation Estimates
Every February the BLS updates the seasonal factors for each component in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to reflect developments during the previous year. Read More
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Play by the (Taylor) Rules
The interest rate projections released after the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting were another step toward increased Fed transparency. Read More
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How Is Structured Finance Doing?
Structured finance has been vilified as the culprit behind the worst recession since the Great Depression. Read More
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Job Creation by Small and Large Firms over the Business Cycle
The Great Recession caused establishments of all sizes to make significant cuts in their employment. Read More
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Behind the Decline in Labor’s Share of Income
Labor income, which includes wages, salaries, and benefits, has been declining as a share of total income earned in the U.S. Here, we look at the cyclical and long-run factors behind this development. Read More
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More Transparency, But Not a Crystal Ball
On January 3, the Fed released the minutes from the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and revealed that it will begin publishing the Committee's interest rate projections. Read More
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Loans and Leases in Bank Credit
Loans and leases in bank credit are an important measure of economic strength. Read More
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Are Consumers More Eager to Borrow?
Consumer credit serves as an important indicator as to where the economy is heading. Read More
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Pass-Through and the Renminbi’s Appreciation
Since mid-2010, the Chinese renminbi has steadily appreciated against the dollar. Read More
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Trends in Housing Prices per Square Foot
Recruiters routinely point out the affordability of living in the 4th District, especially housing costs. The pitch that "you can get more house for your dollar here," is aimed especially at growing families with mid-range incomes. Read More
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Consumption Taking Longer to Respond to Downturns in GDP
Consumption makes up roughly 70 percent of GDP as measured by the National Income and Product Accounts. Read More
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Some Improvement in the Labor Market
The labor market closed out 2011 on a solid note, with employment gains in the month of December at 200,000 and the unemployment rate declining to 8.5 percent. Read More
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Short- and Long-term Inflation Expectations
Annual inflation as measured by the Consumer price index (CPI) has declined in each month since September, following decreases in food and energy prices. Read More