The Recent Ascent of Stock Prices: Can It Be Explained by Earnings Growth or Other Fundamentals?
An analysis of the current relationship between stock prices, dividends, earnings, and returns, aimed at examining the causes of the recent stock market surge. It reveals that the market's level cannot be explained by any single fundamental element of standard stock valuation models, but rather manifests optimism about future dividend growth (based on the present record growth in earnings) and a lower expected return (reflecting a diminished risk premium for holding equity).
Suggested citation: Carlson, John, and Kevin Sargent. “The Recent Ascent of Stock Prices: Can It Be Explained by Earnings Growth or Other Fundamentals?” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Review, vol. 33, no. 2, pp. 02-12, 06.01.1997.