District Data Briefs
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Did the COVID-19 Pandemic Cause an Urban Exodus? Data Updates for Tables and Figures
As a followup to our District Data Brief on the pandemic's effect on urban migration, select tables and figures have been updated with more recent data. Read More
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Potential Impacts of the War in Ukraine on the Fourth District
The Russia–Ukraine war has had significant effects on both countries’ exports, and trade partners worldwide have experienced interruptions in supplies. This District Data Brief examines how much our region’s economy may be affected by the disruptions. Read More
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Demographic Trends Are Major Factors in Today’s Weak Labor Force Growth
The size of the US labor force declined by 2.3 million people between December 2019 and December 2021. Our experts examine demographic changes to determine if this decline is a passing trend or if it’s here to stay. Read More
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Disruptions Are Expected to Persist, Prompting Some Firms to Rethink Supply Chain Management
Despite expectations that supply chain challenges would have subsided, disruptions continue. In response, some firms are making changes to the way that they manage their supply chains, and these changes are expected to be long-lasting. Read More
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COVID-19 Mortality Rate Trends in Countries and US States
Building on our District Data Briefs on the coronavirus epidemic, this update examines the epidemic’s trajectories in several countries and US states. Read More
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Age-adjusted COVID-19 Mortality Rates by Demographic Groups
We know that the COVID-19 deaths were disproportionate across age groups. And some research has suggested the virus affects individuals differently, inviting comparisons across other demographic groups. Our researchers argue that failing to adjust for age among such comparisons may lead to incorrect conclusions. Read More
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Does Spending Slide When COVID-19 Surges?
Driven by the delta variant, the latest COVID-19 surge is the largest and most widespread since that of November and December 2020. How do consumer spending and social distancing habits during the delta surge compare to those of last fall’s surge? Read More
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How Large Are the American Rescue Plan Fund Distributions to State and Local Governments?
Because of the American Rescue Plan, $350 billion will be distributed to state and local governments to help speed the nation’s economic recovery from the pandemic. Will these allocations be modest, or will they create a once-in-a-generation opportunity? Read More
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Strong Demand, Limited Supply, and Rising Prices: The Economics of Pandemic-Era Housing
When the coronavirus pandemic began, many feared the housing market would collapse as it did in the mid-2000s. Instead, the industry has struggled to keep up with an influx of demand for homes, leading to rapidly rising prices. What’s next for residential real estate and construction? Read More
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Migrants from High-Cost, Large Metro Areas during the COVID-19 Pandemic, Their Destinations, and How Many Could Follow
When the COVID-19 pandemic forced tens of millions of people to work remotely, some chose to relocate out of high-cost, large metro areas. Did people move to cheaper metros or give up in city living altogether? How many will follow in their footsteps, and what could their relocating mean for the places they choose? Read More
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COVID-19 and Supply Chains: A Year of Evolving Disruption
From product shortages to capacity constraints in the freight sector, the coronavirus pandemic has impacted supply chains continuously if inconsistently. As COVID-19 continues to disrupt the global economy, will supply chain disruptions continue, too? Read More
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Did the COVID-19 Pandemic Cause an Urban Exodus?
In 2020, several media stories reported that residents were leaving urban neighborhood because they feared contracting COVID-19. However, people's taking flight from urban areas is only part of the reason dense neighborhoods were left with fewer residents. Read More
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Were Fourth District Local Governments Ready for a Recession? How the Great Recession Influenced How Much They Save
Did the Great Recession give local governments a better idea of how much savings they needed to weather another economic downturn? To find out, our economists studied financial statements from 25 cities and 25 counties in the Fourth District at two points in time: the most recent statements available and at the close of the 2007, just before the Great Recession. Read More
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Layoffs during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Four Findings from WARN Act Data
With economic conditions changing so rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic, the standard layoff indicators that policymakers and analysts use are falling short. Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act data—a more timely indicator—reveal four findings about job loss during this pandemic. Read More
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How Much Help Do State and Local Governments Need? Updated Estimates of Revenue Losses from Pandemic Mitigation
The financial impacts of closed economies and orders to shelter in place are staggering. Our economist estimates state and local revenue losses for 2020 and explores three scenarios to determine what cuts will be necessary in 2021 to offset impending losses. Read More
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Estimates of State and Local Government Revenue Losses from Pandemic Mitigation
What’s the financial impact of closed economies and orders to shelter in place? Our economist examines state and local income taxes and sales taxes to find out. Read More
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A Speeding Rate Starts to Slow: COVID-19 Mortality Rates by State
In most US states, mortality rates grew more slowly between April 5, 2020 and April 12, 2020 than they did in prior weeks. However, “slower” does not mean “slow”—during that week, mortality rates doubled or more in 37 states. Read More
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Fourth District Business Response to COVID-19: Early Findings
The coronavirus outbreak has landed hard on economic activity in the Fourth Federal Reserve District. Based on the survey responses of more than 450 business contacts, this report summarizes the main findings related to the economic impact of COVID-19 in the Fourth District so far. Read More
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Getting to Accuracy: Measuring COVID-19 by Mortality Rates and Percentage Changes
Relying on confirmed cases to compare the trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemic in different countries has significant limitations. Measuring mortality rates and their percentage changes proves to be a superior way to track the progression of the disease. The method shows that, as of April 5, the epidemic in the United States has a similar mortality rate to those in Europe and is more deadly than in China and South Korea. Read More