Data Updates to U.S. Migration Patterns During the Pandemic
Cleveland Fed Policy Economist Stephan Whitaker has posted data updates to two reports on U.S. migration patterns during the pandemic.
Overall, the flow of people into urban neighborhoods continued to recover from a sharp drop earlier in the pandemic, but net-migration away from urban neighborhoods and high-cost, large metro areas remains far above the pre-pandemic levels.
- In the second quarter of 2021, net out-migration from urban neighborhoods continued to be more than 54,000 migrants per month, more than double the pace observed before the pandemic.
- Gross outflow from urban neighborhoods rose from 284,000 in the first quarter of 2021 to 290,000 in the second quarter of 2021.
- Gross inflow to urban neighborhoods increased by slightly more, rising from 228,000 to 236,000 migrants per month.
- The flow of middle-aged people moving out to purchase homes in the suburbs is balancing a swelling return of young renters to urban neighborhoods.
- Instead of declining back toward prepandemic levels, the net migration out of high-cost, large metro areas increased slightly to 51,000 people per month in the second quarter of 2021.
- Outflows from high-cost metro areas continue to favor nearby small metro areas such as Stockton, Bakersfield, Allentown, and Scranton.
- Larger metro areas that have a long track record of drawing migrants have displaced the slow-growing metro areas that briefly benefited earlier in the pandemic, such as Rochester, St. Louis, and Milwaukee.
- High-cost, large metro areas are once again sending people to rapid-growth destinations such as Las Vegas, Nashville, Atlanta, and Phoenix.
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