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06.01.17

Latest update on federal funds rates based on 7 simple monetary policy rules: Cleveland Fed

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Our tool also allows users to customize their own simple policy rule and forecast

Looking at the federal funds rates coming from seven simple monetary policy rules and three economic forecasts -- based on data and forecasts available as of May 18, 2017 – Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland researchers find that the median federal funds rate across the policy rules and forecasts rises from 1.0 percent in 2017:Q2 to 2.3 percent in 2019:Q2.

Simple monetary policy rules provide a relationship between a central bank’s policy rate and a relatively small number of indicators of inflation and real economic activity. Monetary policymakers often use simple policy rules, like the Taylor rule, as an input into their decision-making. However, there are many different simple rules, and there is no agreement on a single “best” rule. The chart below highlights differences among the latest funds rates coming from the simple policy rules and forecasts examined by Cleveland Fed researchers.

The Cleveland Fed’s webpage, Simple Monetary Policy Rules, presents detailed results from the researchers’ analysis and a spreadsheet so users can customize their own simple monetary policy rule and forecast. The results are updated quarterly, and users can receive e-mail notifications when the updates are posted.

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  • 11.30.17

    2017 Financial Stability and Fintech Conference

    The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the Office of Financial Research, and the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business invite you to attend the 2017 Financial Stability and Fintech Conference on November 30–December 1, 2017, in Washington DC. This year’s conference will highlight research and facilitate discussions related to the impact of innovation on financial stability, policy, and regulation.

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    CALL FOR PAPERS

    Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2018. Researchers from academia and central banks exchange ideas on modeling inflation and inflation expectations and their relationship to the macroeconomy.

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    International Journal of Central Banking Conference

    CALL FOR PAPERS The International Journal of Central Banking (IJCB) is organizing its 2018 annual conference, "Ten Years after the Global Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned about Ensuring Financial Stability?" The conference will be hosted by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, on June 25-26, 2018, and is being organized by Tobias Adrian, Harrison Hong, Luc Laeven, and Loretta Mester.