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Inflation: Drivers & Dynamics Conference 2018



Day One — Thursday, May 17, 2018

8:00 – 8:30 am Registration and Continental Breakfast
8:30 – 8:45 am Welcome and Opening Remarks
Ellis Tallman, Executive Vice President and Director of Research

Session I

Chair: Todd Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
8:45 – 9:45 am Anchoring Inflation Expectations in Unconventional Times: Micro Evidence for the Euro Area

Jonas Dovern, Heidelberg University
Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank, paper

Discussant: Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, discussion
9:45 – 10:45 am Adaptive Learning and Survey Expectations of Inflation

Sergey Slobodyan, National Research University Higher School of Economics
Raf Wouters, National Bank of Belgium, paper

Discussant: Olivier Coibion, University of Texas, discussion
10:45 – 11:00 am Refreshment Break
11:00 am – 12:00 pm Salient Price Changes, Inflation Expectations, and Household Behavior

Francesco D’Acunto, University of Maryland
Ulrike Malmendier, University of California at Berkeley
Juan Ospina, University of Chicago
Michael Weber, University of Chicago Booth School, paper

Discussant: Rüdiger Bachmann, University of Notre Dame, discussion
12:00 – 1:00 pm Lunch

Session II

Chair: Edward S. Knotek II, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
1:00 – 2:00 pm Optimal Trend Inflation

Klaus Adam, University of Mannheim, paper
Henning Weber, Deutsche Bundesbank

Discussant: Guido Ascari, University of Oxford, discussion
2:00 – 3:00 pm The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest

Philippe Andrade, Banque de France, paper
Jordi Galí, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Hervé Le Bihan, Banque de France
Julien Matheron, Banque de France

Discussant: Argia Sbordone, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, discussion
3:00 – 3:15 pm Refreshment Break
3:15 – 4:15 pm Learning to Live in a Liquidity Trap

Jasmina Arifovic, Simon Fraser University
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Columbia University, paper
Martín Uribe, Columbia University

Discussant: Bruce McGough, University of Oregon, discussion
4:15 – 5:15 pm Should Central Banks Target Investment Prices?

Susanto Basu, Boston College, paper
Pierre De Leo, Boston College

Discussant: Christopher House, University of Michigan, discussion
5:30 - 6:30 pm Reception and Poster Session

Does Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor Inflation Expectations? Evidence & Bond Market Implications
Brent Bundick, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
A. Lee Smith, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, paper

Expectation Formation Following Large Unexpected Shocks
Scott R. Baker, Northwestern University
Tucker S. McElroy, U.S. Census Bureau
Xuguang (Simon) Sheng, American University, paper

Inflation Expectations and Choices of Households
Nathanael Vellekoop, Goethe University, paper
Mirko Wiederholt, Goethe University

Price Dynamics and the Financing Structure of Firms in Emerging Economies
Alan Finkelstein Shapiro, Tufts University
Andrés González Gómez, Banco de la República
Victoria Nuguer, Inter-American Development Bank, paper
Jessica Roldán-Peña, Banco de México

Sluggish Inflation Forecasts
Monica Jain, Bank of Canada, paper

Trust in the Central Bank and Inflation Expectations
Dimitris Christelis, University of Naples Federico II
Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
Tullio Jappelli, University of Naples Federico II
Maarten van Rooij, De Nederlandsche Bank, paper
6:45 pm Dinner

Introduction of Dinner Speaker
Ellis Tallman, Executive Vice President and Director of Research

Keynote dinner speaker: Fernando Alvarez, University of Chicago, dinner remarks

Day Two — Friday, May 18, 2018

8:15 – 8:45 am Continental Breakfast

Session III

Chair: Todd Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
8:45 – 9:45 am Strategic Inattention, Inflation Dynamics and the Non-Neutrality of Money

Hassan Afrouzi, Columbia University, paper

Discussant: Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University, discussion
9:45 – 10:45 am Shocks vs Menu Costs: Patterns of Price Rigidity in an Estimated Multi-Sector Menu-Cost Model

Erwan Gautier, Banque de France, paper
Hervé Le Bihan, Banque de France

Discussant: Benjamin Malin, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, discussion
10:45 – 11:00 am Refreshment Break
11:00 – 12:00 am Financial Shocks and Inflation Dynamics

Angela Abbate, Swiss National Bank, paper
Sandra Eickmeier, Deutsche Bundesbank
Esteban Prieto, Deutsche Bundesbank

Discussant: Dario Caldara, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, discussion
12:00 – 1:00 pm Lunch

Session IV

Chair: Edward S. Knotek II, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
1:00-2:00 pm An Inflation-Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area

Marek JarociƄski, European Central Bank
Michele Lenza, European Central Bank, paper

Discussant: Francesco Furlanetto, Norges Bank, discussion
2:00-3:00 pm Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations: a Regime-Switching Framework for the Euro Area

Fédéric Holm-Hadulla, European Central Bank
Kirstin Hubrich, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, paper

Discussant: Christiane Baumeister, University of Notre Dame, discussion