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  • Sizing Up Systemic Risk

    Joseph G. Haubrich Charlotte DeKoning

    Regulators now use a framework for identifying systemically important banking institutions that is based on five broad measures of bank structure. Though size is only one of these equally weighted measures, it seems to be the focus of the most attention. This Commentary explores whether the other measures contribute unique information or whether size is all one needs to identify all the institutions whose failure could bring down the financial system. Read More

  • Cleveland—Slow Growth Continues

    Joel Elvery Christopher Vecchio

    Overall, economic conditions were stable in the Cleveland metro area during the first half of 2017. While employment growth has been weak, the unemployment rate has declined in recent months. The housing market remains strong, with both home price growth and the number of building permits issued at or near their highest levels since the recovery began in June 2009. Read More

  • Cincinnati—Continued Strong Performance

    Mary DeStefano Christopher Vecchio

    The Cincinnati metro area continues to perform more strongly than Ohio across various metrics. Compared to Ohio, Cincinnati's unemployment rate and credit card delinquency rate are lower, while its home price values and payroll employment growth are higher. Read More

  • In Case You Missed It: Policy Summit 2017

    Sydney Stone

    More than 300 people gathered at the biennial Policy Summit to exchange insights on enduring economic and social issues. Check out some of the event’s highlights. Read More

  • Warehousing: A Historical Lesson in Central Bank Independence

    Owen F. Humpage

    This Economic Commentary explains how warehousing—a seemingly innocuous institutional arrangement between the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury—came to threaten the Fed’s independence. Warehousing began as an arcane procedure designed to help the Treasury cover a specific type of foreign-exchange exposure. It then grew into a supplemental source of funding for the Treasury's foreign-exchange interventions. Eventually the procedure morphed into a sizeable off-budget source of funding for other Treasury activities and seemed an inappropriate subversion of the congressional appropriations process, a development that raised concerns within the Fed about its ability to conduct monetary policy free from political concerns. Read More

  • Measuring the True Impact of Job Loss on Future Earnings

    Pawel Krolikowski

    The effect of job displacement on future earnings losses has often been calculated by comparing the earnings of individuals who suffer a displacement at some point in their career with the earnings of those who never lose a job. I show this approach leads to an overstatement of the earnings losses following displacement and discuss an alternative that can ascertain the true effects of displacement in some instances. Read More

  • Stabilizing Local Housing Markets in Cuyahoga County: Blight Elimination

    Kyle Fee Tasia Hane-Devore

    Ten years removed from the housing crisis, local housing markets are still feeling the negative effects of the collapse. The share of foreclosed homes has declined from peak levels, but blight remains an obstacle to stabilizing local housing markets. Strategic interventions to eliminate blight balance demolition and rehabilitation of homes in order to promote housing market stability. Read More

  • New Data on Wealth Mobility and Their Impact on Models of Inequality

    Daniel R. Carroll Nick Hoffman

    Using data on families' wealth over time, we calculate changes in relative wealth mobility; that is, how likely families are to move up or down the wealth distribution, relative to one another. We find families have become less likely to change their position in the wealth distribution over time, and those that do move are less likely to go very far. We also look at the savings behaviors that are associated with more mobile families and find that families that make large movements through the wealth distribution appear to be more likely to own some form of a risky asset. Read More

  • Toledo—Improving Housing Market and Employment Situation

    Joel Elvery Christopher Vecchio

    According to the most recent data, economic growth in the Toledo metro area has been strong during the past year, with the metro area outperforming the state as a whole on a number of indicators. This is partially due to the metro area’s concentration of auto and glass manufacturing, industries that grew more strongly in 2016 than manufacturing as a whole. But that is not the whole story—Toledo also had strong growth in financial activities and professional and business services. The region’s solid employment growth since mid-2014 is also reflected in its housing market, where prices are rising almost as fast as in the nation. Read More

  • Columbus—Local Labor Market Remains Robust

    Guhan Venkatu Christopher Vecchio

    The labor market in the Columbus metro area continues to be strong. In March, the area’s unemployment rate fell to its second-lowest level (3.9 percent) since the early 2000s. As of third quarter 2016, year-over-year employment in the metro area expanded by 2.2 percent—twice as strong as Ohio’s rate of employment growth during the same period. The issuance of residential building permits improved in 2016 and has been strong through the first three months of 2017, while home prices rose roughly 5 percent in the area in March on a year-over-year basis. Finally, the metro area’s income and GDP growth accelerated in 2015. Read More

  • Latest update on federal funds rates based on 7 simple monetary policy rules: Cleveland Fed

    Our tool also allows users to customize their own simple policy rule and forecast Read More

  • Evolution, Not Revolution: Payments Are Undergoing Changes in the United States

    Daniel A. Littman Tasia Hane-Devore

    Payments products are evolving, and a "faster payments" system may accelerate changes. Read More

  • How Small Banks Deal with Large Shocks

    Kristle Cortés

    Recent research has focused on the occurrence of natural disasters to study how small community banks adjust their typical way of doing business to respond to large shocks. The research finds that banks strategically adjust their business in three ways to meet the increased demand for capital after a natural disaster. Read More

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland announces senior officer appointment

    Margie Wright-McGowan will be joining the Bank as a senior vice president. She will lead the Bank’s Human Resources and Office of Diversity and Inclusion functions. Read More

  • Lexington—Growth Remains Solid in the Lexington Region

    Gary Wagner Christopher Vecchio

    Economic conditions remain strong in the Lexington metro area. The most recent unemployment rate is the lowest it has been since 2001, and the region has nearly 9 percent more jobs today than it did in 2007. Read More

  • Pittsburgh—Elusive Employment Gains

    Guhan Venkatu Christopher Vecchio

    Employment in the Pittsburgh metro area has remained relatively flat since 2012. In 2016, employment declined slightly during the year through September, with losses concentrated in goods-producing sectors such as mining, manufacturing, and construction. These losses largely offset employment gains among some service-sector industries. Read More

  • Cleveland Fed announces officer appointments

    Todd Berardinelli and Denise Duffy were promoted to assistant vice president, Jason Tarnowski to vice president. Read More

  • The Federal Funds Market since the Financial Crisis

    Ben R. Craig Sara Millington

    Through the federal funds market, commercial banks used to supply each other with overnight liquidity. But since the financial crisis, the banking system has been awash in reserves and the federal funds rate has been near zero, leaving banks little incentive to participate. Still, the market continues to operate, but it has changed. Read More

  • Cleveland—Housing Market Up, Labor Market Mixed

    Joel Elvery Christopher Vecchio

    The economy of the Cleveland metro area continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than nearby metro areas, Ohio, and the nation. Read More

  • Cincinnati—Steady and Widespread Growth Continues

    Gary Wagner Christopher Vecchio

    Economic growth in the Cincinnati region continues to be strong and to outpace the state of Ohio’s growth on most major indicators. Read More

  • Lingering Residual Seasonality in GDP Growth

    Kurt G. Lunsford

    Measuring economic growth is complicated by seasonality, the regular fluctuation in economic activity that depends on the season of the year. The Bureau of Economic Analysis uses statistical techniques to remove seasonality from its estimates of GDP, and, in 2015, it took steps to improve the seasonal adjustment of data back to 2012. I show that residual seasonality in GDP growth remains even after these adjustments, has been a longer-term phenomenon, and is particularly noticeable in the 1990s. The size of this residual seasonality is economically meaningful and has the ability to change the interpretation of recent economic activity. Read More

  • Financial Statements for the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

    The Federal Reserve System released the 2016 annual financial statements for the 12 Federal Reserve Banks, individually and combined, as well as for the Board of Governors. Read More

  • Trends in Revenues at US Colleges and Universities, 1987-2013

    Peter L. Hinrichs

    This Economic Commentary studies trends in inflated-adjusted revenues per student at US colleges and universities in broad revenue categories between 1987 and 2013. The findings show that, as widely perceived, tuition revenue has risen over time at both public and private institutions. Read More

  • Wage Growth after the Great Recession

    Roberto Pinheiro Meifeng Yang

    We show that the sluggishness of nominal wage growth since the Great Recession is due to weak growth in labor productivity and lower-than-expected inflation. Since 2014, the trend has reversed. Read More