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<title>FRBC: Economic Trends </title>
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<image><title>FRBC: Economic Trends</title><url>http://www.clevelandfed.org/images/logo.jpg</url><link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/rss/rss.cfm?rssdesc=ptd53</link></image>
<ttl>1440</ttl>
<description>Another quality rss feed from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland</description>
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<pubDate>Thu, 09 Sep 2010 21:49:25 GMT</pubDate>
<copyright>Copyright Thu, 9 Sep 2010 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland</copyright>


	
	<item>
		<title> Inflation: Soft but Stable? [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0910/01infpri.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ We have experienced a dramatic disinflation&#8212;a slowing in the growth rate of inflation&#8212;over the past couple of years. With most measures of inflation reporting in at very low rates, speculation abounds that disinflation will eventually give way to deflation. A quick glance at the most recent report on consumer prices might splash some cold water on that discussion. But then, a deeper dig through the report reveals details that might support continued low rates of inflation.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0910/01infpri.cfm-ptd-53-0</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Where Does the Mortgage Market Go from Here? [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0910/01banfin.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ In the first quarter of 2010, it appeared that the mortgage market was running out of steam. Mortgage originations increased in the second quarter, however, demonstrating that there still is demand for mortgages.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0910/01banfin.cfm-ptd-53-1</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Small Business Lending [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0910/01regact.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ Although the U.S. economy stabilized in the middle of 2009 and is now expanding at a moderate pace, many small business owners who want to take advantage of growth opportunities report having difficulty obtaining credit for equipment purchases, operating capital, or committing to strategic acquisitions. From the perspective of the firm owner, bankers appear to be reluctant to lend regardless of credit history or ability to repay. In turn, bankers say that while lending standards remain tight, they have the capital and are anxious to lend, but demand is low. Bankers often cite as evidence the use of credit lines, which is well below historic norms.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0910/01regact.cfm-ptd-53-2</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> State Revenue Declines in the Fourth District [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0810/01regact.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ Each of the four states of the Fourth District&#8212;Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia&#8212;has experienced substantial declines in tax revenue during the most recent recession. Falling revenues force state lawmakers to cut expenditures or raise tax rates because of balanced-budget requirements. Either of these can slow economic activity. States have been cutting expenditures, although the cuts have been partially mitigated by federal transfers and the use of the states&#8217; own rainy day funds, but the states of the Fourth District will continue to face challenges in balancing revenue and expenditures until more robust economic growth returns.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0810/01regact.cfm-ptd-53-3</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> The Yield Curve, July 2010 [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/data/yield_curve/index.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ The Yield Curve has a new look and location! We hope you find the new format better. Since last month, the yield curve has flattened, as long rates dropped and short rates edged up. Projecting forward using past values of the spread and GDP growth suggests that real GDP will grow at about a 1.14 percent rate over the next year, just up from June?s prediction of 1.00 percent. Although the time horizons do not match exactly, this comes in on the more pessimistic side of other forecasts, although, like them, it does show moderate growth for the year.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/data/yield_curve/index.cfm-ptd-53-4</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Measuring Market Beliefs about the Fed Policy Rates [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0810/02monpol.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ A look at Eurodollar and fed fund futures, one way of ascertaining the market&#8217;s expectations about changes in FOMC policy, shows that market participants anticipate that the FOMC will continue to maintain its position of exceptionally low interest rates far out into the future.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0810/02monpol.cfm-ptd-53-5</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Bank Loans: Still Contracting [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0810/01gropro.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ Information from various sources suggests that the number of loans that banks are making to businesses continues to fall. The contraction appears to be driven by both supply and demand; banks are extending less credit, and businesses are asking for less. The restriction of credit may be one important factor that is constraining the current recovery, since businesses, especially small ones, rely on bank loans and access to credit to finance their operations, capital expenditures, and growth.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0810/01gropro.cfm-ptd-53-6</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Has the Beveridge Curve Shifted? [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0810/02labmar.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ Has the Beveridge curve, an empirical relationship between job openings and unemployment, changed in a way that would indicate that the labor market&#8217;s longer-term adjustment process has been adversely impacted by the recession? It is too early to tell for sure, but the curve&#8217;s recent behavior looks very similar to that of previous recessions.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0810/02labmar.cfm-ptd-53-7</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Bank Executive Pay [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0810/01banfin.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ In the wake of the financial crisis and the unprecedented government intervention that followed, the compensation of bank executives has been heavily criticized for having encouraged undue risk taking. We examine trends in executive compensation over the past couple of decades, and look for compensation patterns that might have implications for banks&#8217; risk-taking behavior.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0810/01banfin.cfm-ptd-53-8</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Renminbi Peg: On Again, Off Again [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0810/01intmar.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ The People&#8217;s Bank of China indicated&#8212;once again&#8212;that it would loosen its grip on the renminbi-dollar exchange rate and allow the renminbi to appreciate against the dollar. All else constant, a renminbi appreciation should raise the dollar price of Chinese goods, lower the renminbi price of U.S. goods, and whittle away at our trade deficit with that country. But unless the exchange rate moves by a substantial amount, we probably will not see much of an effect. Since the People&#8217;s Bank&#8217;s announcement, the renminbi has appreciated a meager 0.7 percent against the dollar.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0810/01intmar.cfm-ptd-53-9</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> The Homebuyer Tax Credit [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0810/01houcon.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ The homebuyer tax credits that were intended to aid the floundering housing market have recently expired. Were the programs enough to jump start the housing market or did they merely cannibalize future sales?]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0810/01houcon.cfm-ptd-53-10</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> The Labor Market for Men and Women [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/Trends/2010/0810/01labmar.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ Over the course of this recession, men have experienced significantly higher unemployment rates than women. The unemployment rate for men rose by 6.7 percentage points from its 2007 average level, peaking at 11.4 percent , while the unemployment rate for women increased by 4.3 percentage points, peaking at 8.8 percent. This pattern of more cyclically sensitive unemployment rates for men has been apparent over the last four recessions.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/Trends/2010/0810/01labmar.cfm-ptd-53-11</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Economic Projections from the June FOMC Meeting [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/Trends/2010/0810/01monpol.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ Four times a year, we get a glimpse of the FOMC&#8217;s forecasts for economic growth, unemployment, and inflation. The Committee's latest forecasts were released with the minutes of the June 22-23 meeting.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/Trends/2010/0810/01monpol.cfm-ptd-53-12</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Changes in Foreclosure and Unemployment across States [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0710/01regact.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Tue, 6 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ During the recent recession, the unemployment rate more than doubled and the foreclosure start rate roughly tripled, but the timing of the increases differed somewhat over the business cycle. In this article, we take a look at the recent movements of these two series and discuss what their paths might be going forward.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0710/01regact.cfm-ptd-53-13</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Recent Developments in Prices and Inflation Expectations [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0710/01infpri.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Fri, 2 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ As the economy recovers, interest has turned to the Fed&#8217;s strategy for exiting from the accommodative policy it adopted to deal with the crisis. Owing to the Fed&#8217;s dual mandate (maximum sustainable employment and price stability), the exit strategy will depend on the developments in prices as well as the real economy. Price statistics suggest that we are in a period of disinflation,and inflation expectations reveal no significant threat of inflation is anticipated.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0710/01infpri.cfm-ptd-53-14</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> The Yield Curve, June 2010 [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0710/02monpol.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Thu, 1 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ Since last month, the yield curve has dropped slightly, with both long and short rates ticking down Projecting forward using past values of the spread and GDP growth suggests that real GDP will grow at about a 1.00 percent rate over the next year, just up from May&#8217;s prediction of 0.98 percent. Although the time horizons do not match exactly, this comes in on the more pessimistic side of other forecasts, although, like them, it does show moderate growth for the year.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0710/02monpol.cfm-ptd-53-15</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Market Expectations for Policy Rates [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0710/01monpol.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jun 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ The recent financial turmoil in Europe has been associated with a general shift in market expectations about the future course of domestic and foreign monetary policy. Many market participants are now expecting the federal funds rate to remain near the 0&#38;ndash;25 basis point range through the early part of 2011. Going forward, market anxieties will have to recede before forward rate curves can accurately portray policy expectations.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0710/01monpol.cfm-ptd-53-16</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Recession Shrinks State and Local Governments [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0710/01houcon.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Jun 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ State and local governments make up a large portion of our economy, together accounting for 11.8 percent of GDP last year. State and local government employees represent roughly 15 percent of the total nonfarm labor force, a number seven times that of federal government employees and larger than the manufacturing and construction workforces combined. Because of its large relative size, changes in the state and local government sector can have a significant impact on the economy. For this reason, there may be reason for concern over the recent contracting trend in state and local budgets.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0710/01houcon.cfm-ptd-53-17</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Could Low Educational Attainment Be Slowing the Recovery? [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0710/01labmar.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Jun 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ While people without a bachelor&#8217;s degree have experienced higher unemployment throughout the past 15 years, their rate of unemployment has typically been only about 2 percentage points higher than those with a degree. Currently, however, it stands at more than 5 percentage points higher. Shrinking employment opportunities in industries that employ workers without a bachelor&#8217;s degree could be slowing the speed of the recovery.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0710/01labmar.cfm-ptd-53-18</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Three Headwinds on the Current Recovery [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0610/01gropro.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Fri, 4 Jun 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ Three headwinds may be constraining our current recovery. One is the damage done to the labor market by prolonged and widespread unemployment. Another is the heightened sense of caution on the part of consumers and businesses due to deep economic uncertainty. A third is ongoing financial imbalances&#8212;the excess of debt owed by the household and business sectors. There are a number of channels through which weak balance sheets are likely to depress consumption and investment for some time to come.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0610/01gropro.cfm-ptd-53-19</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Recent Manufacturing Employment Growth [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0610/01regact.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Thu, 3 Jun 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ Over the past few months, the labor market has begun to show signs of stabilization. Lost in the excitement of multiple positive employment reports has been growth in the manufacturing industry. Even though industrial production numbers have been trending upward since last June, national manufacturing employment has only recently posted gains, adding 101,000 jobs in the first four months of 2010, while Fourth District states have been at the forefront of manufacturing employment growth.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0610/01regact.cfm-ptd-53-20</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Current Banking Conditions, FDIC-Insured Institutions [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0610/02banfin.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Tue, 1 Jun 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ The latest financial data for depository institutions insured by the FDIC show signs that the banking and thrift industries may be turning the corner. The first-quarter financial results for these firms, however, are at best mixed. ]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0610/02banfin.cfm-ptd-53-21</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Getting a Clear Signal on Inflation [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0610/01infpri.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Tue, 1 Jun 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ From time to time, components comprising the Consumer Price Index exhibit some idiosyncratic price changes, obscuring the inflation signal in the data. Recently, a couple of examples of these idiosyncratic price changes have shown up in the data. There are a number of ways to deal with these idiosyncracies to get a better read on the inflation signal in prices, with trimmed-mean estimators like the median CPI among the best.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0610/01infpri.cfm-ptd-53-22</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Monetary Policy and an Extended Period of Time [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0610/02monpol.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 May 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ The FOMC met on April 27 and 28 and, like at previous meetings, continued to assert that the &#8220;Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to &#38;frac14;&#8221; for an &#8220;extended period.&#8221; Trying to figure out when the Committee should increase the funds rate is complex. But John Taylor in a seminal 1993 paper argued that a useful guidepost for conducting monetary policy can be given by a simple rule or strategy whereby the central bank sets the federal funds rate in response to two variables&#8212;inflation and deviations of output from potential output.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0610/02monpol.cfm-ptd-53-23</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> The Yield Curve, May 2010 [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0610/01monpol.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 May 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ Since last month, the yield curve has flattened, with long rates falling as short rates barely ticked up. Projecting forward using past values of the spread and GDP growth suggests that real GDP will grow at about a 0.98 percent rate over the next year, a bit below April&#8217;s 1.17 percent. Although the time horizons do not match exactly, this comes in on the more pessimistic side of other forecasts, although, like them, it does show moderate growth for the year.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0610/01monpol.cfm-ptd-53-24</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Has the Mortgage Market Run Out of Steam? [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0610/01banfin.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 May 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ The Fed&#8217;s intervention and subsequent purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) early last year drove mortgage interest rates down to historic lows, and federal government stimulus measures, such as the tax credit for first-time home buyers, gave new purchasers additional financial resources. The result was a wave of mortgage originations in the middle of 2009, as homeowners refinanced existing mortgages and others bought houses for the first time. However, new origination data from Inside Mortgage Finance shows that origination volumes fell substantially in the first quarter of 2010. This suggests that the mortgage market may slow down now that the refinancing wave has passed and purchaser tax incentives have expired.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0610/01banfin.cfm-ptd-53-25</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Economic Projections from the April FOMC Meeting [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0610/01ecoact.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 May 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ The economic projections of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were released along with the minutes of the meeting on April 27-28. As usual, the projections were based on the information available at the time, as well as participants&#8217; assumptions about the economic factors affecting the outlook and their view of appropriate monetary policy.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0610/01ecoact.cfm-ptd-53-26</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Some Popular Locales Now Facing Gloomier Labor Market [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0510/01labmar.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 May 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ Employment conditions vary a great deal across the nation, and the variation increased dramatically during the recent recession. The differences that emerged suggest that places where large housing booms occurred may have attracted populations during the boom that have led to much greater unemployment after the bust than places where house-price increases were more modest, like the Fourth District.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0510/01labmar.cfm-ptd-53-27</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> The Recovery So Far [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0510/01gropro.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 May 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis's latest estimate, real GDP increased at a 3.2 percent annualized rate in the first quarter of the year. This increase was fueled by private consumption, which increased 3.6 percent, the largest quarterly growth in this category since the first quarter of 2007. Private investment also increased at a healthy clip, albeit much lower than the previous quarter, when it increased 46.1 percent mainly because of inventories. This is the third consecutive quarter in which real GDP registered positive growth, an opportune time to start talking about the recovery.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0510/01gropro.cfm-ptd-53-28</guid>
		</item> 
	
	<item>
		<title> Recent Firming in the Federal Funds Market [ ] </title>
		<link>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0510/02monpol.cfm</link>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Apr 2010 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
		<description><![CDATA[ The effective federal funds rate has been rising since the end of February 2010, reflecting a number of factors. Some of those factors are the revival of the Treasury&#8217;s Supplemental Financing Program, an increase in the Fed&#8217;s discount rate, collateral effects generated by new Treasury debt around the April tax deadline, and the tightening of credit lines by GSEs.]]></description>
		<guid>http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2010/0510/02monpol.cfm-ptd-53-29</guid>
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