Economic Trends

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  • Why Are the CPI and the PCE Giving Different Estimates of Inflation?
  • In January 2012, the Federal Open Market Committee announced that its long-run objective for inflation was 2 percent as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. At the time, the PCE appeared to be moving toward this target. But since then, PCE-based measures have drifted down. Toward the end of 2011, the year-over-year change in the PCE was close to 3 percent, but by March, when the PCE fell 0.1 percent, the 12-month percent change in the index had fallen to just under 1 percent. This has prompted some FOMC participants to suggest recently that the Committee may need to act to address this disinflation.

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