Research Topics

Banking & Financial Institutions

Fourth District Bank Holding Companies: There are three fewer bank holding companies in the District with assets of more than $1 billion since 1999, but total assets of all of those remaining has increased every year except 2000. Their income streams deteriorated somewhat in 2007, problem real estate loans jumped to their highest level, problem consumer loans edged up slightly, and the risk-based capital ratio fell sharply. Read more

The Yield Curve: Since last month, the yield curve has witnessed a parallel upward shift, with both short-term and long-term interest rates rising. One reason for noting this is that the slope of the yield curve has achieved some notoriety as a simple forecaster of economic growth. The rule of thumb is that an inverted yield curve (short rates above long rates) indicates a recession in about a year, and yield curve inversions have preceded each of the last six recessions. Read more

March Price Statistics: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annualized rate of 4.2 percent in March, returning to its recent elevated trend after a respite in February, when it increased only 0.3 percent (annualized rate). The CPI is up 4.6 percent over the past six months. Read more

Bifurcation?: The International Monetary Fund lowered its projections for world economic growth. No surprise there! But the report also suggested that the traditional correlation between growth in advanced-developed countries and growth in developing countries was weakening. Global trade gains and macroeconomic policy improvements have reduced—but not eliminated—the developing countries’ dependency on the developed world. Now that’s interesting! Read more

Gender Differences in Employment Statistics: One key measure of the condition of an economy’s labor market is the unemployment rate. At 5.0 percent, some see recent unemployment data as further evidence of an economy in distress. The unemployment rate has inched slightly higher in the past few months (4.9 percent in January to 5.0 percent in April) and over the course of the past year (it was 4.5 percent last April). Historically, though, the rate is actually somewhat low. Read more

The Employment Situation: The April Employment Report came in better than anticipated, with a total loss of just 20,000 nonfarm jobs from payrolls. Revisions to February and March numbers increased the losses in those months by just 8,000. The unemployment rate edged slightly lower, from 5.1 percent to 5.0 percent over the month. Read more