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Growth and Production

Economic Trends

• The Delayed Recovery of Investment in Nonresidential Structures
• The Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth, April 2013
• Government Spending and Employment in Recoveries
• GDP Growth in U.S. Metropolitan Areas during the Recovery
• The Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth, March 2013
• The Recession and Recovery from an Industry Perspective
• Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth, February 2013
• Behind the Slowdown of Potential GDP
• Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth, December 2012
• The Labor Market Then and Now
• Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth, November 2011
• Private Fixed Investment: Not Rebounding as Fast This Time Around
• Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth, October 2011
• Estimating Real GDP Growth Trends
• Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth, September 2011
• Behind the Strength in Exports
• Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth, August 2011
• Is Moderate Growth the New Normal?
• The Yield Curve and Projected GDP Growth, July 2012
• Durable Goods Consumption and GDP
• The Yield Curve and Projected GDP Growth, June 2012
• A Historical Perspective On the Current Recovery
• The Yield Curve and Projected GDP Growth, May 2012
• A Return to Lower Levels of Investment Activity
• The Shrinking Government Sector
• Do Leading Indicators Help Predict GDP Growth Rates?
• Behind the Decline in Labor’s Share of Income
• Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth, December 2011
• Consumption Taking Longer to Respond to Downturns in GDP
• Why Some European Countries and Not the U.S.?
• Weak Wage and Income Growth Is Holding Consumption Back
• The Global Slowdown and Central Banks’ Responses
• Interpreting the Recent Slowdown: Delayed Recovery or Stall Speed?
• Why Is Investment So Soft?
• Is the U.S. Labor Market Becoming More Sclerotic? And Does It Matter?
• Investment in Structures Is Still Depressed
• Just an Oily Patch on the Road to Recovery?
• Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth and a Look Forward
• Household and Corporate Balance Sheets
• Is Consumer Spending Really “Driving” the Recovery?
• Commodity Prices and Investment in Structures
• The Balance Sheet Recovery
• Theoretically, How Long Is This Recovery Supposed to Take Anyway?
• The 2000s: A Slow Start to the 21st Century
• Households’ Balance Sheets and the Recovery
• Bank Loans: Still Contracting
• Three Headwinds on the Current Recovery
• The Recovery So Far
• The Yield Curve, February 2010
• Economic Projections from the January FOMC Meeting
• Real GDP: Fourth-Quarter 2009 Advance Estimate
• Imports and Economic Growth
• What Is the Yield Curve Telling Us?...And Should We Have Listened?
• Real GDP: Third-Quarter 2009 Third Estimate
• The Yield Curve, December 2009
• An Update on the High-Yield Corporate Bond Spread and Economic Activity
• Measures of Economic Slack, Cost Pressure, and Inflation
• Third-Quarter GDP

Economic Commentary

• Time-Consistent Rules in Monetary and Fiscal Policy  (PDF)
• Economic Policy Uncertainty and Small Business Expansion  (PDF)
• Reducing the Federal Deficit: Approaches in Some Other Countries  (PDF)
• Shocks and the Economic Outlook  (PDF)
• Household Balance Sheets and the Recovery  (PDF)
• The Great Recession’s Effect on Entrepreneurship  (PDF)
• Not Your Father’s Recovery?  (PDF)
• Is U.S. Federal Debt Too Large?  (PDF)
• Is Debt Overhang Causing Firms to Underinvest?  (PDF)
• Inflation, Banking, and Economic Growth  (PDF)
• Community Lending and Economic Development  (PDF)

Policy Discussion Papers

• Does Government Intervention in the Small-Firm Credit Market Help Economic Performance?  (PDF)

Working Papers

• Leverage, Investment, and Optimal Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Innovation Spillovers in Industrial Cities  (PDF)
• Debt Overhang in a Business Cycle Model  (PDF)

Other Publications

• Overextended, Underinvested: The Debt Overhang Problem  (PDF)
• Aubhik Khan (Ohio State)  (PDF)
• Factory Orders
• Sanjay Chugh (U. Maryland)  (PDF)

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