Working Papers
Stimulating discussion and critical comment on research in progress.
1986
- WP 86-12
- Designing Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations: Analysis and Practical Implications
- An investigation of the ways in which rational expectations theory fundamentally changes monetary policy analysis and an attempt to generalize the implications of such analysis. (PDF)
- WP 86-11
- Errors in Recorded Security Prices and the Turn-of-the Year Effect
- A study that concludes recorded security price errors are potential sources of misspecification in joint tests of the capital asset pricing model and market efficiency. (PDF)
- WP 86-10
- Estimating the Contribution of Urban Public Infrastructure to Regional Growth
- An estimation of components of public capital stock for 38 metropolitan areas from 1953 to 1981, using the perpetual inventory method. These series are used to estimate the effect of public capital stock on regional manufacturing production. (PDF)
- WP 86-09
- The Use of Market Information in Pricing Deposit Insurance
- An argument that information about the value of the deposit-insurance guarantee is available from market-generated data. (PDF)
- WP 86-08
- Intervention, Exchange-Rate Volatility, and the Stable Paretian Distribution
- A look at whether the United States’ decision to cease intervention after March 1981 had a perceptible influence on the day-to-day behavior of exchange rates, using the stable paretian distribution. (PDF)
- WP 86-07
- Productivity Growth and the Decline of Manufacturing in Large Metropolitan Areas: 1959-78
- An examination of the role of productivity differences in explaining the decline of manufacturing activity in large metropolitan areas relative to the rest of the country, with special attention given to the decline of the large metropolitan areas of the Manufacturing Belt. (PDF)
- WP 86-06
- The Birth of the Competitive Market in the Steel Industry
- A regional analysis of the steel industry with emphasis on the economic performance of minimills and integrated mills. (PDF)
- WP 86-05
- Rival Stock Price Reactions to Large BHC Acquisition Announcements: Evidence of Linked Oligopoly
- An examination of whether multimarket contacts among geographically diversified bank holding companies adversely affect competition. (PDF)
- WP 86-04
- The Default Premium and Corporate Bond Experience
- A study that represents the first effort to tie together the differential returns required by holders of low-rated corporate bonds and the actual default experiences of these issues. (PDF)
- WP 86-03
- Patterns and Determinants of Inefficiency in State Manufacturing
- A study of whether states differ in terms of technical inefficiency in their manufacturing sectors. (PDF)
- WP 86-02
- Comparison of Univariate ARIMA, Multivariate ARIMA and Vector Autoregression Forecasting
- A comparison of the forecasting abilities of univariate ARIMA, multivariate ARIMA, and VAR, and examination of whether series should be differenced before estimating models for forecasting purposes. (PDF)
- WP 86-01
- Employment and Unemployment Effects of Unions
- An examination of the effect of unions on the aggregate level of employment in the economy. (PDF)