Matthew Koepke |

Research Analyst


Matthew Koepke, Research Analyst

Matthew Koepke is a former research analyst in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

  • Fed Publications
Title Date Publication Author(s) Type

 

2012-11 ; Yuliya Demyanyk; Economic Commentary
Abstract: The Great Recession brought an end to a 20-year expansion of consumer debt. In its wake is a lively debate about what caused the turnaround. Was it motivated by a decreased appetite for debt by consumers or an unwillingness to lend by banks? Our analysis of Equifax and Mail Monitor data shows that the major cause was most likely consumers.

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August, 2012 ; Emily Burgen; Yuliya Demyanyk; Economic Trends
Abstract: Since the financial crisis in late 2008, the level of total real consumer credit outstanding has fallen 4.5 percent. While it has recaptured some of the ground it lost during the recession, growth has not been equally split between revolving and nonrevolving credit, its two components. In fact, while nonrevolving consumer credit has expanded past its pre-financial crisis levels, revolving credit has declined through the economic recovery.

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July, 2012 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: Ever since the National Bureau of Economic Research called an end to the Great Recession in June 2009, the U.S. banking system has been engaged in a slow and fragile recovery. The most recent data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) shows that while the system is on the mend, FDIC-insured institutions still face headwinds.

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May, 2012 ; James B Thomson; Economic Trends
Abstract: The financial crisis and subsequent recession caused bank profitability to decline significantly. Banks responded to the crisis by reducing lending. However, as the economy muddles through the recovery, there are signs that banks’ profitability is improving, potentially creating a more favorable lending environment.

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May, 2012 ; Yuliya Demyanyk; Economic Trends
Abstract: It has been over two-and-a-half years since the National Bureau of Economic Research called an end to the recession that began in late 2007. Nonetheless, the recession’s negative effects on the U.S. housing market remain. One potential headwind facing the housing market is foreclosures.

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May, 2012 ; Ben R Craig; Economic Trends
Abstract: Over the last 20 years, the financial sector has become larger, more complex, and more interconnected. While this expansion has facilitated the development of new financial products and markets, it has also introduced new risks to the financial system and the economy in general. Going forward, capital regulation will likely play an important role in adding stability to the financial system.

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January, 2012 ; Ben R Craig; Economic Trends
Abstract: Loans and leases in bank credit are an important measure of economic strength. They serve as an indicator of how quickly the general economy is growing and, more importantly, what areas of the economy are expanding. Loans and leases are recovering much more slowly during this recovery than they did in the previous two. But balances in commercial and industrial loans have grown faster.

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January, 2012 ; Yuliya Demyanyk; Economic Trends
Abstract: Consumer credit serves as an important indicator as to where the economy is heading. Generally, consumers borrow more when they are more certain about their financial prospects and less when they are less certain. Consequently, changes in consumer credit may indicate how confident consumers are about the economy and their desire to consume in the future.

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December, 2011 ; James B Thomson; Economic Trends
Abstract: Like banks and savings associations, the credit union industry has followed a path of consolidation. From 2004 to June 2011, the number of federally-insured credit unions has fallen from 9,014 institutions to 7,239 institutions. However, over the same time period, total credit union assets rose nearly 46 percent. Moreover, the number of credit union members has steadily increased.

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November, 2011 ; Yuliya Demyanyk; Economic Trends
Abstract: After a difficult first and second quarter, the U.S. mortgage market is projected to improve in the third quarter of 2011. While the improvement in the third quarter&rsqo;s projected performance is welcomed, it suggests that there is considerable weakness in the U.S. mortgage market.

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November, 2011 ; Ben R Craig; Economic Trends
Abstract: Concerns have arisen over sovereign debt write-downs and the impact they could have on the European banking system.

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September, 2011 ; James B Thomson; Economic Trends
Abstract: As the banking sector recovers from the financial crisis and the subsequent recession, its recovery has mirrored the slow and fragile recovery of the general economy. Despite the growth in total assets, loans and leases at depository institutions actually fell from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the second quarter of 2011.

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August, 2011 ; Yuliya Demyanyk; Economic Trends
Abstract: The U.S. market for mortgage originations has continued to struggle through the second quarter. With second-quarter GDP being revised down, the weakness in the housing market has been attributed to poorer-than-expected economic performance and declining confidence in the economic recovery. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage originations in the second quarter fell to their lowest levels since September 2008, the peak of the financial crisis.

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August, 2011 ; Ben R Craig; Economic Trends
Abstract: In the past year, the Greek sovereign debt crisis has been the focus of much financial press. According to the Bank for International Settlements, 24 countries reported that their banking systems had foreign claims on Greek debt as of December 2010, representing a total debt exposure of $145.8 billion and additional exposures of $60.7 billion related to derivative contracts, guarantees, and credit commitments. Moreover, the total risk exposure is highly concentrated in the European banking system, representing nearly 94.0 percent of the total foreign claims on Greek debt. Given the European banking system’s level of exposure to Greek debt, it is little wonder that European leaders have moved quickly to mitigate the risk of a potential Greek default.

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June, 2011 ; James B Thomson; Economic Trends
Abstract: As the economy continues to grow at an anemic pace, questions remain about the condition of small business lending. The most recent data on conditions are mixed. While the most recent senior loan officer survey suggests conditions are improving for small business lending, the most recent data from the FDIC shows that small business lending continues to struggle.

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May, 2011 ; Yuliya Demyanyk; Economic Trends
Abstract: Mortgage production is likely to continue to struggle as the economy recovers. Mortgage originations were down in the first quarter of 2011, as demand for refinancings fell. Housing market activity suggests that it is unlikely that there will be enough new purchases to offset that decline in mortgage refinancings.

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April, 2011 ; Ben R Craig; Economic Trends
Abstract: As the economy continues to emerge from the recession, it is not yet clear how sustainable the recovery is. One concern is the strength of bank lending and banks’ apparent preference to hold reserves instead of lending to consumers and businesses. On the surface, the large increase in excess reserves makes it appear that banks have significantly tightened their lending standards and are hoarding reserves, but in reality the increase in excess reserves has been a result of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchases.

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March, 2011 ; James B Thomson; Economic Trends
Abstract: It has been nearly two years since the National Bureau of Economic Research called an end to the recession, but concerns still remain about the strength of the recovery in bank lending. The most recent data from the FDIC suggest that while some measures of credit flow are improving, other measures continue to show weakness.

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February, 2011 ; Yuliya Demyanyk; Economic Trends
Abstract: The mortgage market ended 2010 on a high note, with mortgage originations increasing for the third consecutive quarter and reversing a trend of three consecutive quarterly declines. Mortgage originations may have improved in 2010, but the improvement has done little to raise the number of mortgages serviced. Though activity has picked up, high levels of refinancing originations and foreclosures have made it difficult for the increased activity to fully offset the declines in servicers’ existing portfolios.

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February, 2011 ; Ben R Craig; Economic Trends
Abstract: While the U.S. economy has shown many signs that it is on the mend from the most severe economic contraction since the Great Depression, the economy faces a particular headwind on its way to recovery: the challenging lending environment.

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December, 2010 ; Ben R Craig; Economic Trends
Abstract: Since the Fed announced a second round of quantitative easing, the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds has increased and is now at its highest level since May 2010. The increase can be partly explained by examining changes in investors’ expectations about short-term interest rates and inflation. Other potential sources of the increase are an improved economic outlook and an increase in the number of Treasuries issued.

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December, 2010 ; James B Thomson; Economic Trends
Abstract: As the economy emerges from the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, concerns remain about the slow, ongoing weakness in credit markets, in particular, the small business loan market. The most recent data on the primary source of loans to small businesses, FDIC-insured banks and thrifts, adds credence to this concern.

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November, 2010 ; Yuliya Demyanyk; Economic Trends
Abstract: The housing bubble left many borrowers overleveraged once the recession struck. But consumers have begun to deleverage, and this is nowhere more evident than in the housing market. Borrowers have responded to the recent recession by reducing their exposure to mortgage debt. While mortgages remain a much larger proportion of homeowners’ debt today than in 2000, if borrowers continue to deleverage, they will be able to obtain more manageable levels of debt in the future.

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September, 2010 ; Ben R Craig; Economic Trends
Abstract: On September 21, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reaffirmed its commitment to keep the Federal Funds rate within the range 0 to 1/4 percent, as the economy continues with its fragile recovery. Though the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the recession ended in June of 2009, the recovery has been hampered by pervasive unemployment and soft income growth. Moreover, as the Committee noted in its statement, underlying inflation is below the level it deems necessary, in the long term, to fulfill its mandate of maximum employment and price stability.

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September, 2010 ; James B Thomson; Economic Trends
Abstract: Since Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were taken into conservatorship by the U.S. Treasury in 2008, they have required $148 billion in taxpayer funds to cover the losses they incurred. Recent statements by the acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency suggest that the final bill to the U.S. taxpayer to resolve the insolvencies of Fannie and Freddie could exceed $400 billion. However, the Federal Home Loan Bank system, another housing GSE, has fared somewhat better during the financial crisis.

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August, 2010 ; Yuliya Demyanyk; Economic Trends
Abstract: In the first quarter of 2010, it appeared that the mortgage market was running out of steam. Mortgage originations increased in the second quarter, however, demonstrating that there still is demand for mortgages.

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August, 2010 ; Ben R Craig; Economic Trends
Abstract: A look at Eurodollar and fed fund futures, one way of ascertaining the market’s expectations about changes in FOMC policy, shows that market participants anticipate that the FOMC will continue to maintain its position of exceptionally low interest rates far out into the future.

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