Kyle Fee |

Economic Analyst


Kyle Fee, Economic Analyst

Kyle Fee is an economic analyst in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. His work focuses on economic development, regional economics, economic geography, and federal funds futures probabilities.

Mr. Fee has a BS in economics and business administration from John Carroll University and a master’s in urban studies: economic development from Loyola University.

  • Fed Publications
Title Date Publication Author(s) Type

 

August, 2014 ; Ashley Orr; Economic Trends
Abstract: Youngstown, Ohio, is at the center of a larger metropolitan statistical area (MSA) that includes the cities of Youngstown, Warren, and Boardman, Ohio, and the counties of Trumbull and Mahoning in Ohio and Mercer in Pennsylvania. The area, often referred to as the Mahoning Valley and once known as the Steel Valley, was home to a flourishing steel industry from the mid-1800s to the 1970s. Back in the 1920s, the valley’s steel production ranked second in nation, but today most of the steel mills have been closed down, sold, and scrapped. The area has experienced a vast population decline and has yet to regain employment lost from previous recessions.

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2014-06 ; Dionissi Aliprantis; Nelson Oliver; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Why has average income grown in some poor neighborhoods over the past 30 years and not in others? We explore that question and find that low-income neighborhoods that experienced large improvements in income over the past three decades tended to be located in large, densely populated metro areas that grew in income and population. Residential sorting—changes in population and demographics within neighborhoods—could help to explain this relationship.

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2014-03 ; Thomas J Fitzpatrick; Economic Commentary
Abstract: All the signs in the housing market seem to be pointing the right way, except the amount of time loans are spending in the foreclosure process. Foreclosure fast-tracks for vacant homes in foreclosure may help reverse that trend.

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February, 2014 ; Dionissi Aliprantis; Nelson Oliver; Economic Trends
Abstract: When people compare employment conditions around the country, they usually think in terms of large regions like the Midwest and the West Coast or cities like Cleveland and Pittsburgh. But employment conditions vary widely within major metropolitan area as well. Even if a metro area experiences rising average levels of employment and income, the changes in specific neighborhoods in that metro area may be well above or below that average.

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2013-18 ; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Though most people in the US live in metropolitan areas, they've been choosing to live farther and farther from the center of those areas since the 1950s. While that trend continues to this day, there are some dramatic changes. The exodus from the center of town is slowing down quite a bit, for one. For another, those residents who now live in the central city are better educated than they used to be.

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2013-11 ; Daniel Hartley; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Four years into the economic recovery, housing markets have finally started to improve. While many indicators of activity indicate recent growth, comparing over time and across the United States suggests that many regional housing markets are looking better now only in comparison to where they were during the recession. The recovery in housing markets does appear to be gaining steam, but it remains a work in progress in many places.

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August, 2013 ; Kathryn Holston; Economic Trends
Abstract: A profile of the Columbus Metropolitan Statistical Area and how this Fourth District metro area’s economy measures with that of Ohio and the nation.

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July, 2013 ; Kathryn Holston; Economic Trends
Abstract: A report and profile of Pittsburgh’s Metropolitan Statistical Area and how this Fourth District metro area measures up with the nation’s economy.

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May, 2013 ; Daniel Hartley; Economic Trends
Abstract: The lowest point of the housing bust was characterized by a glut of supply. Homes for sale remained on the market longer, and foreclosed homes and those with mortgages in default added to or threatened to add to this inventory. As a result, prices fell, and construction of new homes fell to extremely low levels. While there are many encouraging signs of recovery in housing markets at the national level, there is a good amount of variation in the degree of recovery across the country.

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April, 2013 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: On the whole, GDP growth in U.S. metropolitan areas was strong in the first two years of the recovery. But growth rates varied widely in different places. Some metro areas continued to struggle with the effects of the housing boom and subsequent bust. Others benefitted from natural resource extraction or high-tech industries. We look at some other factors associated with these different growth rates.

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2013-01 ; Dionissi Aliprantis; Nelson Oliver; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Not only has poverty recently increased in the United States, it has also become more concentrated. This Commentary documents changes in the concentration of poverty in metropolitan areas over the last decade. The analysis shows that the concentration of poverty tends to be highest in northern cities, and that wherever overall poverty or unemployment rates went up the most over the course of the decade, the concentration of poverty tended to increase there as well.

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January, 2013 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: Last month’s employment report showed continued modest expansion in payrolls for the month of December, with the economy adding 155,000 jobs. This is right on the monthly average for the entire year, which stands at 153,000 new jobs per month. About one-quarter of the jobs added in 2012 have been in the education and health services sector, and in December alone the sector accounted for 42 percent of the new jobs.

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October, 2012 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: Differences in human capital across regions are associated with differences in economic performance. For example, many studies have documented that regions with higher human capital, typically measured in terms of educational attainment, experience higher income growth. The correlation is attributed to many channels, but key among them is the view that more educated locations are more innovative and can take better advantage of new technologies.

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September, 2012 Vol. 3, No. 2 ; Forefront
Abstract: Insights from the National Association of Business Economics' first industry-specific conference

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July, 2012 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: The labor markets of different regions have not all recovered from the Great Recession at the same rate. Some states have much lower employment levels than before the recession, some have gained, and most have had no growth. But in some areas, like Cleveland, the situation is a little unclear. The picture changes depending on which data source is considered.

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June, 2012 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: The recovery from the U.S. recession has not been uniform across the 50 states. Recent data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis through 2011 show that 20 states still had levels of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) below their 2007 levels. Over this same period, the United States as a whole experienced essentially breakeven growth, with an overall rise of less than one-tenth of a percent.

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June, 2012 ; Daniel Hartley; Economic Trends
Abstract: Since the peak of the housing market, which occurred in mid-2006 according to the Case-Shiller 10-city and 20-city composite indices, housing markets across the United States have seen large declines in home prices. However, some areas have fared much worse than others.

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June, 2012 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, working paper no. 12-13 ; Daniel Hartley; Working Papers
Abstract: In this paper we contrast the spatial patterns of population density and other demographic changes in growing versus shrinking MSAs from 1980 to 2010. We find that, on average, shrinking MSAs show the steepest drop in population density near the Central Business District (CBD). Motivated by this fact, we explore the connection between changes in population density at the core of the MSA and MSA productivity. We find that changes in near-CBD population density are positively associated with per capita income growth at the MSA-level.

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May, 2012 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: The April 2012 employment report offered a mixed bag of results. The household survey reflected a mixed picture, as well. Over the course of the last four years, the size of the labor force has essentially remained constant, even as the civilian noninstitutional population (16 years and older) has grown by over 9 million individuals.

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January, 2012 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: The labor market closed out 2011 on a solid note, with employment gains in the month of December at 200,000 and the unemployment rate declining to 8.5 percent. Still, compared to peak payroll employment prior to last recession, employment remains down by 4.4 percent (6.1 million jobs) and well off the typical recovery path.

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2011-27 ; Daniel Hartley; Economic Commentary
Abstract: In recent decades, some cities have seen their urban centers lose population density, as residents spread farther out to suburbs and exurbs. Others have kept populous downtowns even as their environs have grown.

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December, 2011 ; Guhan Venkatu; Economic Trends
Abstract: Americans tend to be more mobile than others in the industrialized world. According to a recent study, the fraction of Americans who moved in 2005—roughly 12 percent—was about twice as high as the fraction that moved in most European countries outside of Northern Europe during the same time. While Americans’ annual mobility rates remain high by international standards, they appear to have trended down since at least 1980, though the reasons for this remain unclear.

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December, 2011 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: Over the course of the recent business cycle, labor markets within the Fourth District have experienced distinctly different patterns of contraction and expansion. In particular, Pittsburgh experienced a milder recession, measured in terms of job loss or unemployment rates, than the nation and the three other major metropolitan areas in the Fourth District—Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus. Pittsburgh’s recovery has also been more robust.

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November, 2011 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is one of the data releases we monitor to help shape our inflation outlook. The latest figures for the ECI continue to point to restrained wage growth.

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2011-21 ; Dionissi Aliprantis; Timothy Dunne; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Workers with more education typically earn more than those with less education, and the difference has been growing in recent decades. Not surprisingly, the percentage of the population going after and getting a college degree has been rising as well. Since the late 1970s, though, the increase in college attainment has stalled for men and gathered steam for women. Among college-age individuals, more women now graduate than men. Changes in labor market incentives appear to explain the increased investment in education made by women. But men's investments in education have been much less responsive to the same incentives.

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September, 2011 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The Fourth District’s unemployment rate has continued to increase over the summer months. The District’s current rate is very close to the national unemployment rate, which is slightly atypical as it has often run higher than the national rate in recent years.

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September, 2011 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: August’s employment report showed that the labor market is treading water. Payroll employment showed no change in August, and the unemployment rate remained stuck at 9.1 percent. We report on the latest labor conditions.

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2011-17 ; Mark E Schweitzer; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Economists have been arguing about the connection between unemployment and inflation for decades. Critics claim that the connection is unreliable and leads policymakers astray, while others argue that the relationship is useful for forecasting. We examine the more direct connections between elevated unemployment levels and the rate of increase in wage and labor costs more generally. We find that wage and labor cost growth has declined markedly following recent recessions and in the case of the current recovery, labor costs are likely to be a significant restraining force on inflation going forward.

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August, 2011 ; Daniel Hartley; Economic Trends
Abstract: The release of the latest Census data reveals that Cleveland’s population has fallen since the last census and dipped below the 400,000 mark. The recent loss of population is not uncommon for cities in the Great Lakes region. Even the largest city in the region, Chicago, has shrunk over the past 10 years. Moving forward, the big question for Cleveland is to what degree population loss at its core is a cause or consequence of its overall population loss.

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June, 2011 ; Timothy Dunne; John Lindner; Economic Trends
Abstract: The labor market showed a bit of weakness in May, gaining only 54,000 jobs. This is well below the rate observed since the beginning of the year. The unemployment rate also ticked up by 0.1 percent to 9.1 percent. So will manufacturing lead the way out of the last recession?

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June, 2011 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: New data from the 2010 Census show that the U.S. population grew by 27.3 million people over the last decade. Most of this expansion was accounted for by growth in larger metropolitan areas, and this is not too surprising, as this is where most of the U.S. population resides. The top 100 metropolitan areas gained 19.8 million people and account for two-thirds of the total population. Still, 48 metros declined in population over the last decade, losing three-quarters of a million people. The populations of the Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland metro areas fell by roughly 3 percent from 2000 to 2010. Smaller metro areas in this area of the country (Flint, Toledo, and Saginaw) also experienced declines, and even growing metro areas in this region (Akron, Rochester, and Syracuse) eked out only small gains.

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April, 2011 ; Daniel Hartley; Economic Trends
Abstract: As the 2010 census data rolls out, researchers will be conducting extensive analysis on a variety of issues. So far we have only been privy to the re-apportionment (population) data, which have generated their fair share of media coverage. Regardless of the media spin, a clearer picture of how cities’ populations have changed from 2000 to 2010 is emerging. What are some of the characteristics of the cities that grew, and how do they compare to those of the cities that shrank? While it may be tempting to conclude that people are moving to places with job growth, it is equally possible to conclude that jobs are moving to places where city population is growing.

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January, 2011 ; Timothy Dunne; Mary Zenker; Economic Trends
Abstract: Unemployment remains quite high in the nation and higher still in the Fourth District, though it has been nearly 18 months since the recovery began. The unemployment rate in the Fourth District inched down to 10.0 percent in November, while in the nation as a whole it is slightly lower but still high (9.8 percent in November and 9.4 percent in December).

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October, 2010 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: September’s employment report showed continued anemic employment growth for the U.S. economy. Every two years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys individuals about displacement from the workforce as part of the Current Population Survey. In this article, we compare the latest results to those of the 2002 survey, which included the 2001 recession, and the 2008 survey, which covers the three years prior to the current recession.

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July, 2010 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: Over the course of this recession, men have experienced significantly higher unemployment rates than women. The unemployment rate for men rose by 6.7 percentage points from its 2007 average level, peaking at 11.4 percent , while the unemployment rate for women increased by 4.3 percentage points, peaking at 8.8 percent. This pattern of more cyclically sensitive unemployment rates for men has been apparent over the last four recessions.

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July, 2010 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: During the recent recession, the unemployment rate more than doubled and the foreclosure start rate roughly tripled, but the timing of the increases differed somewhat over the business cycle. In this article, we take a look at the recent movements of these two series and discuss what their paths might be going forward.

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June, 2010 ; Filippo Occhino; Economic Trends
Abstract: Three headwinds may be constraining our current recovery. One is the damage done to the labor market by prolonged and widespread unemployment. Another is the heightened sense of caution on the part of consumers and businesses due to deep economic uncertainty. A third is ongoing financial imbalances—the excess of debt owed by the household and business sectors. There are a number of channels through which weak balance sheets are likely to depress consumption and investment for some time to come.

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June, 2010 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: Over the past few months, the labor market has begun to show signs of stabilization. Lost in the excitement of multiple positive employment reports has been growth in the manufacturing industry. Even though industrial production numbers have been trending upward since last June, national manufacturing employment has only recently posted gains, adding 101,000 jobs in the first four months of 2010, while Fourth District states have been at the forefront of manufacturing employment growth.

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March, 2010 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: Now that it appears that the worst of the “great recession’ is over, assessing the damage done to Ohio’s labor market offers insights into what a potential recovery might look like in the state.

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March, 2010 ; Filippo Occhino; Economic Trends
Abstract: Recent improvements in economic conditions may be having a positive effect on the risk of default in the economy, both for corporations and homeowners. We check a few measures of default risk to see if this is the case.

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February, 2010 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: Much of the recent commentary on the economy has focused on the recovery, while seriously delinquent mortgages have quietly crept upwards. Since December 2008, seriously delinquent mortgages have increased 75 percent nationally, whereas in the Fourth District they have increased 48 percent.

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February, 2010 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The District’s unemployment rose 0. 1 percent to 10.8 percent for the month of December. Since this same time last year, the Fourth District unemployment rate has increased by 3.1 percentage points and the national unemployment rate has increased and 2.8 percentage points.

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January, 2010 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate remained at 10.7 percent for the month of November. Similar to the national payroll employment situation, Ohio and large metropolitan statistical areas in the Fourth District have recently seen payroll employment begin to bottom out.

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December, 2009 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate jumped 0.7 percentage point to 10.7 percent for the month of October.

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December, 2009 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: In recent remarks, Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke has stated that “from a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over at this point.” The data that lead him to that conclusion are unfortunately not produced at the state level, so it’s not possible to tell what they would show about the degree of recovery in individual states. But another source can give us an idea, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes, which measure real-time changes in state economic activity.

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December, 2009 ; Filippo Occhino; Economic Trends
Abstract: In its November 2009 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee appears to consider the level of resource utilization in the economy an important determinant of future inflation. A look at the historical relationship between inflation and two commonly used indicators of economic slack, the output gap and the unemployment rate, makes a good case for the view that slack and inflation are related. Current levels of those and other indicators of resource utilization all suggest a good degree of slack in the economy and contained cost pressures.

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October, 2009 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 10.0 percent for the month of September. The drop in the District unemployment rate most likely does not indicate an improving labor market, as the drop stems mostly from a shrinking labor force (−1.5 percent since this time last year). During recessions, workers leave the labor force because they become discouraged and stop looking for work, effectively shrinking the base from which the unemployment rate is calculated.

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October, 2009 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: As of October 1, the “Cash for Clunkers” program has processed 670,557 reimbursements totaling $2.8 billion dollars. The program has received rave reviews in the media for its short-term success, but the open question is whether short-term successes facilitate long-term growth. Will the program jump start the restructured auto industry or will it result in mere transitory demand shifts, “stealing” from future consumption?

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October, 2009 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage point to 10.2 percent for the month of August. Since this time last year, the Fourth District and the national unemployment rates have each increased 3.5 percentage points.

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September, 2009 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: For two days, the leaders of the world’s 20 largest economies will meet to discuss potential reforms to the global economic system. Where will this international meeting take place, you ask? London? New York? Tokyo? All wrong. None other than the Fourth District’s own Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. And the city’ recent history provides its own story of economic reform.

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September, 2009 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 10.1 percent for the month of July. An alternative measure of labor market conditions is the U-6 rate, which serves as an estimate for labor underutilization.

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September, 2009 ; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: The unemployment rate provides information on the number of people who are unemployed as a fraction of the labor force at any given point in time, but when it rises, it doesn’t tell us much about why. We can’t tell by looking at the rate whether people who are unemployed are staying unemployed longer or whether more workers have lost their jobs. To understand how much each of these factors contributes to a rise in the unemployment rate, we looked at inflows into unemployment (job separation rate) and outflows from the unemployment pool (job finding rate) for all postwar recessions.

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August, 2009 ; Filippo Occhino; Economic Trends
Abstract: The 2009 federal budget deficit is now anticipated to be 11.2 percent of GDP, by far the largest value of the postwar period. Forecasts for the longer horizon are even more alarming, with the deficit expected to be consistently around 4 percent of GDP over the next decade. Congressional Budget Office forecasts tell a similar story.

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August, 2009 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: During the current recession, investment in residential structures and investment in private nonresidential structures have experienced markedly different paths. The sharp fall in residential investment led the economy into recession, while private nonresidential investment held up relatively well until the last two quarters.

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August, 2009 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 10.2 percent in June, reflecting decreases in the number of people unemployed (-1.1 percent), the number of people employed (-0.3 percent), and the size of the labor force (-0.1 percent).

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July, 2009 ; Charles T Carlstrom; Economic Trends
Abstract: Over the month of June, the yield curve has continued to rise, which some see as evidence of higher inflation in the future. Based on our calculations of inflation-protected Treasury securities, we don't think so. After adjusting TIPS estimates of future inflation for a liquidity bias, we find that longer-term inflation expectations did not decline during the crisis and have not crept up significantly since then.

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July, 2009 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: With the national unemployment rate up to 9.5 percent in June, the District’s unemployment rate jumped 0.6 percentage point to 10.3 percent for the month of May.

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July, 2009 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The Bureau of Economic Analysis recently released its annual report documenting patterns of gross domestic product growth across states. Real GDP growth slowed in 38 states in 2008, which included the Fourth District’s dismal numbers.

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June, 2009 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate increased 0.4 percentage point to 9.7 percent for the month of April, 0.8 percentage point higher than the nation’s. Of the 169 counties that make up the District, 47 had an unemployment rate below the national rate in April, and 122 counties had a higher rate. Since this time last year, the Fourth District’s unemployment rate has increased 4.2 percentage points, and the nation’s, 3.9 percentage points.

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June, 2009 ; Charles T Carlstrom; Economic Trends
Abstract: The recent rise in the yield curve suggests to some observers that inflation expectations are rising. The yield curve may not be the best indicator of this possibility, but there are others. A look at these suggests that, while it is certainly too soon to conclude that long-term inflation expectations are increasing, recent signs warrant an ever-watchful eye to make sure they don’t.

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June, 2009 Economic Trends ; Filippo Occhino; Economic Trends
Abstract: After deteriorating sharply in August 2007 and then again in the fall of 2008, financial market conditions have improved markedly during the past quarter. Given the historical relationship between financial market conditions and economic activity, we interpret this as an encouraging sign that the economy may be recovering. The improvement in financial markets can be observed in the recent evolution of a few indicators of financial market stress, including indicators of borrowers’ credit risk, financial market liquidity, and uncertainty among market participants. We take a look at these indicators and explain how they may be related to economic activity.

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May, 2009 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: What is the recovery of the U.S. labor market expected to look like this time around and will the states follow the same pattern? Overall, Fourth District states have experienced somewhat different labor market cycles in the current recession. Ohio has had the weakest labor market, while Pennsylvania’s and West Virginia’s have been relatively strong. A current fear is that while we are experiencing a sharp labor market contraction similar in magnitude to the 1981 recession, we will have a labor market recovery similar to those which occurred after the 1990 or 2001 recessions—the so-called jobless recoveries.

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April, 2009 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate increased 0.5 percentage point to 9.3 percent for the month of March. Since the recession began, the nation’s monthly unemployment rate has averaged 0.6 percentage point lower than the Fourth District unemployment rate. Year over year, the Fourth District and the national unemployment rates have increased 3.5 percentage points and 3.4 percentage points, respectively.

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April, 2009 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate jumped 0.7 percentage point to 8.8 percent for the month of February. The District’s unemployment rate was again higher than the national rate in February (by 0.7 percentage point), as it has consistently been since early 2004. Since the recession began, the nation’s monthly unemployment rate has been 0.6 percentage point lower on average than the Fourth District unemployment rate.

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March, 2009 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: Ohio is often thought of as a state with a relatively large share of economic activity coming from the manufacturing sector, especially heavy manufacturing. Even after the sharp declines in the iron and steel industries in the 1980s, Ohio still had 21.7 percent of its workforce in the manufacturing sector in 1990. This was 34 percent more than the U.S. manufacturing employment share. However, over the last several decades, Ohio’s manufacturing employment has declined more rapidly than the nation’s as a whole.

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March, 2009 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate shot up 0.6 percentage point to 8.1 percent for the month of January. Compared to the national rate in January, the District’s unemployment rate (0.5 percentage point) stood higher, as it has been since early 2004. However, over the past year the gap between unemployment rates has all but vanished as a result of the current recession. Since the same time last year, the Fourth District and the National unemployment rates have both increased by 2.7 percentage points.

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February, 2009 ; Filippo Occhino; Economic Trends
Abstract: In recent months, we have seen a staggering increase in stock market volatility. One popular measure of market volatility, the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility Index (VIX), jumped to 62.6 in November 2008, higher than it’s ever been. Is there a corresponding increase in volatility of macroeconomic variables? To answer this question, we focused on four main economic indicators, GDP growth, employment growth, productivity growth, and inflation.

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02.18.2009 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate jumped 0.3 percentage point to 7.4 percent for the month of December (0.2 percentage point higher than the nation’s). Unemployment rates across Fourth District counties ranged from 5.2 percent to 13.1 percent, with the median county unemployment rate at 8.0 percent.

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February, 2009 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: Since the recession started in December 2007, the U.S. economy has shed 2.5 million jobs, or 1.9 percent of nonfarm payroll employment, and Ohio has reduced its payrolls by 1.6 percent. However, not all areas of Ohio have experienced similar employment losses.

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January, 2009 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has designated December 2007 as the starting point of the current recession. However, the recession referred to is the nation’s as a whole—individual states vary with respect to the timing of their business cycles as well as in the severity of their recessions. To see how Ohio’s business cycle compares to those of other states and the nation, we examine the state coincident indexes published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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January, 2009 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate remained steady at 7.0 percent for the month of November. As it has consistently been since early 2004, the District’s unemployment rate was higher than the nation’s (0.3 percentage point). Since this time last year, the Fourth District?s unemployment rate has increased 1.7 percentage points, while the nation’s has increased 2.0 percentage points.

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December, 2008 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate rose 0.1 percent, reaching 7.0 percent in October and exceeding the nation’s rate by 0.5 percentage point. Year–over–year,the District’s unemployment rate has increased 1.5 percentage points, compared to the nation’s increase of 1.7 percentage points.

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11.07.08 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate remained steady at 6.9 percent for the month of September. The District’s rate was again higher than the nation's (by 0.8 percentage point).

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October, 2008 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate increased 0.2 percent, reaching 6.9 percent for the month of August. Compared to the nation’s unemployment rate, the District’s was again higher in August (by 0.8 percentage point), as it has consistently been since early 2004.

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October, 2008 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: Not too surprisingly, news of general economic activity has taken a backseat to news of the problems plaguing the U.S. financial system. A look at the main data releases of September (which describe the economic activity of August) suggests a picture of weakening across a broad range of the economy.

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September, 2008 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: The district’s unemployment rate jumped up 0.4 percent to 6.6 percent for the month of July. The District’s rate was 0.9 percent higher than the nation’s in July, and it has been consistently higher since early 2004. Since this time last year, the Fourth District’s unemployment rate has increased 1.2 percentage points and the nation?s has increased 1.0 percentage points.

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September, 2008 ; Economic Trends
Abstract: Located in the geographic center of Ohio, the Columbus MSA is home to 1.75 million people dispersed across eight counties. Columbus’s population has grown faster than other Fourth District MSAs, and its workforce has a lower share of workers employed in manufacturing, factors which partly explain the MSA’s overall employment growth numbers as well as that of particular industries.

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August, 2008 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: Since the start of the credit crisis, labor markets in the 50 states have generally weakened. As the national unemployment rate rose from 4.7 percent to 5.5 percent from September 2007 to June 2008, the vast majority of U.S. states also saw rising unemployment rates. Within the Fourth District, Pennsylvania was the only state adding employment over the period.

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August, 2008 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: The Fourth District’s unemployment rate notched up 0.1 percent in June, reaching 6.2 percent. The increase can be attributed to monthly increases in the number of people unemployed (0.6 percent) along with a decrease in the number of people employed (−0.3 percent). Since the same time last year, the Fourth District’s unemployment rate has increased 0.6 percentage point, while the nation’s has increased 1.1 percentage points.

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7.10.08 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: The relationship between economic growth and human capital is well established in economics. Looking at Fourth District states, Kentucky and Pennsylvania have above-average growth in the share of the population with both four-year and advanced degrees, while Ohio had below-average growth in both categories. West Virginia had a higher-than-average growth rate in four-year degrees, but the state remains the lowest ranked of the 50 states, with only 1 in 6 adults over 25 having earned a four-year college degree.

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July, 2008 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: The district’s unemployment rate jumped 0.6 percent, to 6.1 percent, for the month of May. Compared to the national rate, the district’s unemployment rate stood 0.6 percent higher in May and has been consistently higher since early 2004. Since the same time last year, the Fourth District unemployment rate has increased 0.7 percentage point. The national rate has increased 1.0 percentage point.

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06.06.08 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: The economic performance of different regions is often compared by looking at differences in per capita income growth. Before income growth can be compared, though, it has to be adjusted for inflation. Often, a national price index is used to make the adjustment. But prices can grow at different rates in different areas of the country, and when regional price indexes are used instead of a national index to adjust the data on income growth, it can make a big difference.

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May, 2008 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: Since this time last year, both the Fourth District and the national unemployment rates have increased by 0.7 percentage point. The district’s unemployment rate jumped 0.4 percent for the month of March. The increase in the unemployment rate can be attributed to increases in the number of people unemployed (6.6 percent) and the labor force (0.1 percent), along with a decrease in the number of people employed (−0.3 percent). The district’s unemployment rate was higher than the national rate in March (by 0.6 percent), as it has been since early 2004.

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04.18.08 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: The district’s unemployment rate dropped 0.2 percent to 5.3 percent for the month of February. Of the district’s 169 counties, 29 had an unemployment rate below the national average in February and 140 had a higher one. Rural Appalachian counties continue to experience higher levels of unemployment.

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April 8, 2008 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: The district’s unemployment rate dropped 0.1 percent to 5.6 percent for the month of January. Since this same time last year, the Fourth District’s unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage point, while the national rate rose 0.3 percentage point.

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03.12.08 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends

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02.22.08 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends

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01.31.08 ; Timothy Dunne; Guhan Venkatu; Economic Trends
Abstract:

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01.22.08 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends
Abstract: The Erie metropolitan statistical area (MSA) is located in the northwest corner of Pennsylvania on Lake Erie. Home to 279,811 people, Erie, a Great Lakes city, has an employment history of heavy industry and manufacturing. In 2006, Erie was still heavily invested in manufacturing industries, having about an 80 percent higher proportion of its workforce in manufacturing than the nation as a whole. Meanwhile, Erie?s service industry workforce was proportionately higher in health services industries relative to the nation and lower in information, financial, and professional business and services industries.

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01.08.08 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends

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12.11.07 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends

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12.07.07 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends

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November 8, 2007 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends

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October 29, 2007 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends

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10.01.07 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends

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09.17.07 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends

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08.21.07 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends

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08.20.07 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends

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08.06.07 ; Robert Sadowski; Economic Trends

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07.18.07 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends

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07.11.07 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Trends

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