| Title |
Date |
Publication |
Author(s) |
Type |
| The Yield Curve, November 2008
|
November, 2008 |
|
Kent Cherny; Joseph G Haubrich; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: In the midst of the horrendous economic news of the last month, the yield curve might provide a slice of optimism. Since last month, it has flattened, as short rates fell more than long rates. On the other hand, the historic turmoil in the financial markets also suggests that the historical relationships on which our interpretation of the yield curve depends may not be holding up in times of stress.
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| The Yield Curve, October 2008
|
October, 2008 |
|
Kent Cherny; Joseph G Haubrich; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Since last month, the yield curve has gotten steeper, as short rates fell and long-term rates rose. The flight to quality and the turmoil in the financial markets may impact the reliability of the yield curve as an indicator, but projecting forward using past values of the spread and GDP growth suggests that real GDP will grow at about a 3.0 percent rate over the next year. This remains on the high side of other forecasts, many of which are predicting reductions in real GDP.
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| Housing and the Banking Industry
|
October, 2008 |
|
Kent Cherny; Ozgur Emre Ergungor; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The deterioration of the housing market shows few signs of nearing an end. Home price indexes have continued to fall. Mortgage-related losses are taking a big bite out of mortgage lenders’ profits, and increasingly, the deterioration in earnings is affecting more than a few large institutions and becoming a widespread problem.
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| The Yield Curve, September 2008
|
September, 2008 |
|
Kent Cherny; Joseph G Haubrich; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Since last month, the yield curve has flattened modestly, with short-term interest rates increasing and longer rates holding steady. The financial crisis showed up in the yield curve, with rates falling since last month, as investors fled to quality.The flight to quality and the turmoil in the financial markets may impact the reliability of the yield curve as an indicator, but projecting forward using past values of the spread and GDP growth suggests that real GDP will grow at about a 3.0 percent rate over the next year.
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| The Yield Curve, August 2008
|
August, 2008 |
|
Kent Cherny; Michael F Bryan; Joseph G Haubrich; Brent Meyer; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Since last month, the yield curve has flattened modestly, with both short-term interest rates increasing and longer rates holding steady. The yield curve slope became somewhat flatter, with short rates moving up, and the spread remains positive. Projecting forward using past values of the spread and GDP growth suggests that real GDP will grow at about a 3.0 percent rate over the next year.
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| The Yield Curve, July 2008
|
July, 2008 |
|
Kent Cherny; Joseph G Haubrich; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Since last month, the yield curve has taken a parallel upward shift, with both short-term and long-term interest rates rising. The yield curve slope became slightly flatter, with both long and short rates moving down. Projecting forward using past values of the spread and GDP growth suggests that real GDP will grow at about a 3.0 percent rate over the next year—on the high side of other forecasts.
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| The Yield Curve, June 2008
|
June, 2008 |
|
Kent Cherny; Joseph G Haubrich; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Since last month, the yield curve has taken a parallel upward shift, with both short-term and long-term interest rates rising. The yield curve slope stayed the same, with both long and short rates edging up. Projecting forward using past values of the spread and GDP growth suggests that real GDP will grow at about a 3.0 percent rate over the next year—on the high side of other forecasts.
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