Beth Mowry |

Research Assistant

Beth Mowry, Research Assistant

Beth Mowry is a research assistant in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Her work focuses on labor markets and business cycles.

Ms. Mowry has a bachelor’s in economics from Miami University.

  • Fed Publications
Title Date Publication Author(s) Type

 

January, 2011 Beth Mowry; Owen F Humpage; Economic Trends
Abstract: The Bank for International Settlements released its triennial snapshot of the foreign-exchange market in December. Two trends emerge from the survey’s wealth of information: Technology is changing the market, and the dollar still dominates trading, despite continued talk of its imminent demise.

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January, 2011 Beth Mowry; Ozgur Emre Ergungor; Economic Trends
Abstract: Household wealth took a dive in the recent recession from falling home prices and stock values, causing households to constrain spending and reduce their debt. After peaking in June 2008, consumer spending dropped markedly until it reached a trough in March 2009. Since that time, consumption expenditures have resumed growth and climbed 2.7 percent beyond the pre-recession peak.

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October, 2010 Beth Mowry; Owen F Humpage; Economic Trends
Abstract: To keep the value of its currency low relative to the dollar, China's central bank has amassed a huge mountain of dollar assets. How is it keeping these holdings from causing inflation?

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October, 2010 Beth Mowry; Ozgur Emre Ergungor; Economic Trends
Abstract: The number of new foreclosures across the United States ticked up mildly in the first and second quarters of 2010, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s National Delinquency Survey. When the housing bust was just setting in back in 2006, Ohio’s foreclosure rate was the highest of any state in the nation (3.38 percent) and about three times as high as the national average (then 1.19 percent). Now—four years later—Ohio has the sixth highest percentage, with 4.82 percent of all mortgage loans in foreclosure, and the national average has nearly caught up. What hasn’t changed, however, is that Ohio still easily leads the other states in the Fourth District (Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) in foreclosure rates.

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July, 2010 Beth Mowry; Ozgur Emre Ergungor; Economic Trends
Abstract: The homebuyer tax credits that were intended to aid the floundering housing market have recently expired. Were the programs enough to jump start the housing market or did they merely cannibalize future sales?

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June, 2010 Beth Mowry; Daniel Hartley; Economic Trends
Abstract: While people without a bachelor’s degree have experienced higher unemployment throughout the past 15 years, their rate of unemployment has typically been only about 2 percentage points higher than those with a degree. Currently, however, it stands at more than 5 percentage points higher. Shrinking employment opportunities in industries that employ workers without a bachelor’s degree could be slowing the speed of the recovery.

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April, 2010 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: Even though it is widely thought that the aggregate economy came out of the recession in the second quarter of 2009, we have not yet seen a major improvement in the labor market. As a result, many are concerned about the potentially “jobless” nature of the recovery.

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March, 2010 Beth Mowry; Daniel R Carroll; Economic Trends
Abstract: Saving is the engine that drives long-run economic growth. The steady decline in the savings rate of U.S. households has concerned economists, so it may be seen as promising that the trend reversed direction during the latest downturn. In 2008, the personal savings rate rose to 2.6 percent and in 2009 reached 4.3 percent, its highest level since 1998. To understand the reason for this uptick, it helps to know how the savings rate is calculated.

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February, 2010 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: Nonfarm employment was essentially unchanged in January. The number of unemployed persons dropped a substantial 430,000, while the labor force expanded by 111,000, resulting in a decline in the unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage point, to 9.7 percent.

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January, 2010 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: With the exception of November, the U.S. economy has lost jobs consistently all the way back to December 2007, but the losses have steadily slowed over much of 2009. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 10.0 percent. However, since labor force participation fell precipitously and 661,000 people exited the labor force, the unemployment rate is surely underestimating labor market slack.

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December, 2009 Beth Mowry; Economic Trends
Abstract: Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations in November, falling just 11,000, the smallest loss in nearly two years. Strong upward revisions trimmed September and October’s losses, leaving their respective declines at 139,000 and 111,000. November’s improvement was shared by most major sectors, in the form of fewer losses or larger gains over the month. For the most part, net job losses have slowed since January.

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November, 2009 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: Nonfarm payrolls fell by 190,000 jobs in October, coming in slightly below expectations. The economy has shed a net total of 7.3 million jobs since December 2007, but losses have gradually slowed in recent months, with the average decline falling from 428,000 in the second quarter to 225,000 in the third quarter. Surprising, however, was the jump in the unemployment rate from 9.8 to 10.2 percent, a 26-year high.

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October, 2009 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: The official unemployment rate is one of the most widely reported and closely watched labor statistics, and while it provides insight into the degree to which labor resources are used in the economy, no single statistic can capture all forms of labor market difficulties. The BLS publishes alternative measures of unemployment, which range from less to more inclusive. These alternatives have important implications for the course of the recovery.

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October, 2009 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: Nonfarm payroll losses picked up pace in September, falling by a larger-than-expected 263,000 jobs after a loss of 201,000 in August.

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September, 2009 Beth Mowry; Economic Trends
Abstract: The unemployment rate climbed 0.3 percentage point to 9.7 percent in August as the number of unemployed persons jumped up 466,000. A less volatile measure of labor market stress is the employment-to-population ratio, which reached its lowest level since 1984, 59.2 percent. Although the labor market has come a long way since 741,000 payrolls were cut in January, the August cuts were still large by historical standards.

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July, 2009 Beth Mowry; Yoonsoo Lee; Economic Trends
Abstract: The decline in nonfarm payroll employment picked up pace again in June, as losses were a greater-than-expected 467,000. Cumulative employment losses in this recession now total 6.5 million, setting total employment back to its level in 2000.Payroll losses in June were broadly spread across goods-producing industries (223,000) and service-providing industries (244,000). The unemployment rate crept up from 9.4 to 9.5 percent.

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June, 2009 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: Employment losses moderated in May, as nonfarm payrolls dropped by 345,000, much less than the average loss of 643,000 of the prior six months. This was the smallest payroll decline since September 2008, and revisions to March and April lessened those months’ losses by a total of 82,000. The moderation was driven by fewer losses in construction; trade, transportation, and utilities; and professional and business services, as well as larger gains in education and health.

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June, 2009 Economic Trends Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: NBER declared December 2007 as the peak of the previous expansion in the U.S. economy (and thus, the start of the current recession). Assuming that we are still in the recession, this downturn will likely be the longest since 1945. The deterioration in labor market conditions in the current downturn has been particularly stark, according to either of the typically consulted measures (nonfarm payroll employment and unemployment). Analyzing different recession episodes in the postwar period points to some general patterns and some major outliers.

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May, 2009 Beth Mowry; Yoonsoo Lee; Economic Trends
Abstract: The unemployment rate jumped from 8.5 percent to 8.9 percent in April, largely due to a labor force increase of 683,000 people, which pushed up the participation rate 0.3 percentage point to 65.8 percent.

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May, 2009 Beth Mowry; Yoonsoo Lee; Economic Trends
Abstract: The unemployment rate is often criticized for leaving some people out of the count. The rate is defined as the percentage of those in the labor force who are unemployed, and to be in the labor force, one needs to be employed or actively seeking work. Not included are people who are willing and able to work but who have stopped searching.

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April, 2009 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: Payroll employment continued its sharp drop in March, declining by 663,000. Revisions left February’s losses unchanged at 651,000, but January’s losses increased to 741,000 (from 655,000 reported last month). Job losses were spread across all major industry groups, with the lone exception of healthcare. The unemployment rate continued to rise, increasing 0.4 percentage point to 8.5 percent, the highest rate since 1983.

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March, 2009 Beth Mowry; Yoonsoo Lee; Economic Trends
Abstract: The labor market lost 651,000 jobs in February, meeting expectations and bringing the total tally of losses since the start of the recession to 4.4 million. The unemployment rate increased by half of a percentage point, to 8.1 percent. Payroll losses characterized every part of the economy, with the lone exceptions of the education and healthcare and government sectors.

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February, 2009 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: The labor market shed 598,000 jobs in January, coming in worse than expected and bringing this downturn’s total losses to 3.6 million. Additionally, the unemployment rate jumped from 7.2 to 7.6 percent, the highest rate since September 1992. As of now, the unemployment rate stands 2.7 percentage points higher than a year ago, almost a 55 percent increase.

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February, 2009 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks the hiring and firing activity of establishments across the nation in its JOLTS series. While the net hires rate had been positive for almost five years up until May 2008, other JOLTS statistics have been painting a clearly deteriorating picture of the labor market.

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January, 2009 Beth Mowry; Yoonsoo Lee; Economic Trends
Abstract: December employment fell by 524,000, roughly meeting expectations and bringing the year’s total losses to 2.6 million. The revised numbers for October and November, coupled with December’s newly reported losses, reveal fourth–quarter 2008 declines exceeding 1.5 million jobs. The unemployment rate also jumped 0.4 percentage point from 6.8 to 7.2 percent in December, the highest rate since January 1993.

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12.23.08 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: Growth in compensation costs, as measured by the employment cost index leveled off and begun to slowly recede in the second and third quarters of 2008. A decline in the wages and salaries component is largely responsible for the decline in the overall ECI.

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12.05.08 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: November employment fell by 533,000 in the largest one-month drop since December 1974, coming in far worse than expectations. Additionally, payrolls in September and October were revised down to losses of 403,000 and 320,000, respectively. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, job losses in the United States have totaled about 1.9 million, roughly 1.3 million of which have come in just the past three months.

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11.28.08 Beth Mowry; Andrea Pescatori; Economic Trends
Abstract: Industrial production rebounded in October, rising 1.26 percent after declining a downwardly revised 3.7 percent in September. The revision to September output was caused, in part, by a larger-than-anticipated estimate of the impact of hurricanes Gustav and Ike on the chemical industry. The September drop resulted in the largest month-over-month percent decline in the series since February 1946.

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11.07.08 Beth Mowry; Yoonsoo Lee; Economic Trends
Abstract: October nonfarm payrolls fell by 240,000, for the tenth straight month of decline this year and slightly worse than consensus expectations. After revisions, September now marks the largest monthly loss since November 2001. Average employment losses in the four most recent recessions ranged anywhere from 120,000 to 180,000 per month, although much larger losses occasionally occurred in a single month. Cumulative losses for the U.S. economy have reached 1.2 million jobs since January, when the downward slope began.

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November, 2008 Beth Mowry; Yoonsoo Lee; Economic Trends
Abstract: The “R” word has been tossed around plenty this year, although the NBER has not declared that a recession has started. But now seems a good time to ask how employment behavior so far this year sizes up to that of recent recessions.

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10.06.08 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: Nonfarm payrolls declined by 159,000 between August and September, with losses spread across a wide range of industries. This marks the ninth consecutive month of employment decline and a continuation of the 6.1 percent unemployment rate, which remains the highest seen since September 2003.

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09.19.08 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: Removing cyclical elements from monthly unemployment data reveals the underlying trend, which can help us see longer-term patterns. When we look at the trend along with the monthly data for the last two recessions and the recoveries that followed, we see characteristics of the typical unemployment cycle, as well as features of the behavior of various segments of the workforce.

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September, 2008 Beth Mowry; Andrea Pescatori; Economic Trends
Abstract: Market commentators and journalists like to draw direct lines between the behavior of crude oil prices and market behavior on a given day, with such headlines as “Oil Spike Pummels Stock Market” (Wall Street Journal) or “U.S. Stocks Rally as Oil Prices Fall”(Financial Times). But does a change in oil prices affect the overall stock market in any predictable, meaningful way? Might a hike in crude foretell a weak day on the Street?

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September, 2008 Beth Mowry; Yoonsoo Lee; Economic Trends
Abstract: Nonfarm payrolls declined by 84,000 in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.1 percent, up from 5.7 percent in July. This marks the eighth consecutive month of employment decline and the highest rate of unemployment since September 2003. The decline in payrolls and the rise in the unemployment rate were both larger than consensus expectations.

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August, 2008 Beth Mowry; Yoonsoo Lee; Economic Trends
Abstract: After peaking at 67.3 percent in the first quarter of 2000, the labor force participation rate fell steadily to around 66 percent by early 2005 and has remained at around 66 percent since then. When the baby–boom cohort entered the labor force—from 1980 to 2000—the share of prime–age workers (ages 25 to 54) in the population increased from 53 percent to 56 percent. As this cohort starts retiring, the Census Bureau projects that the share of prime–age workers will decrease to 47 percent in the 2020s, and the share of older people will increase to 37 percent.

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08.04.08 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: The economy lost 51,000 jobs in July, marking the seventh consecutive month of payroll decline, and the unemployment rate increased from 5.5 percent to 5.7 percent.

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07.08.08 Beth Mowry; Yoonsoo Lee; Economic Trends
Abstract: Today’s Employment Report revealed a net decline of 62,000 jobs in June, in line with expectations and identical to May’s 62,000 drop (after revision). This report brings the sixth consecutive month of decline, which began in January.

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July, 2008 Beth Mowry; Yoonsoo Lee; Economic Trends
Abstract: While net employment changes are usually tracked as a major indicator of the growth or decline of the economy, these numbers mask the underlying process that begets the net results, a process that includes employment turnover, job creation, and job destruction. The most recent BED data show gross job gains totaling 7.25 million in the third quarter of 2007 and gross job losses totaling 7.5 million.

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06.06.08 Economic Trends Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: The unemployment rate shot up from 5.0 percent to 5.5 percent in May, its sharpest increase in 22 years. As always, though, one needs to be cautious when interpreting monthly changes in household data, because they are very volatile. One factor contributing to this uptick is an unusually high level of teenagers entering the labor force.

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06.03.08 Economic Trends Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: According to BLS data, there is significant variation in the way labor turnover behaves in different regions of the United States. Some of the patterns might indicate, for example, that a structural change is affecting only the Midwest, resulting in a regional labor market that does not follow the rest of the country.

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May 13, 2008 Beth Mowry; Yoonsoo Lee; Economic Trends
Abstract: One key measure of the condition of an economy’s labor market is the unemployment rate. At 5.0 percent, some see recent unemployment data as further evidence of an economy in distress. The unemployment rate has inched slightly higher in the past few months (4.9 percent in January to 5.0 percent in April) and over the course of the past year (it was 4.5 percent last April). Historically, though, the rate is actually somewhat low.

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May 8, 2008 Beth Mowry; Michael Shenk; Economic Trends
Abstract: The April Employment Report came in better than anticipated, with a total loss of just 20,000 nonfarm jobs from payrolls. Revisions to February and March numbers increased the losses in those months by just 8,000. The unemployment rate edged slightly lower, from 5.1 percent to 5.0 percent over the month.

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May 1, 2008 Beth Mowry; Andrea Pescatori; Economic Trends
Abstract: The target for the federal funds rate has been slashed three full percentage points since September, from 5.25 to 2.25 percent. Yet the average interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages has fallen only about half a percentage point—from about 6.4 to about 5.9 percent—over the same time span. Why has the central bank’s aggressive action had such a small impact on these mortgage rates, and what does this mean?

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04.07.08 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 80,000 in March to 137,846, according to the initial estimate released by the BLS today. Revisions suggest 22,000 more job losses were added to the original estimate for January and 63,000 more were added for February. Overall these numbers indicate the lowest quarterly employment growth since the first quarter of 2003.

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03.24.08 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: Overall, different measures of job availability suggest that the number of new job vacancies advertised might be falling. Dips in some of those measures are highly correlated with the occurrence of recessions.

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03.18.08 Beth Mowry; Yoonsoo Lee; Economic Trends
Abstract: As we move further into 2008, concerns are growing about the U.S. economy heading toward recession. The Employment Situation reports released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics have received a lot of attention in recent months, as economists try to determine the extent to which housing troubles may have spilled over to the broader economy. This month’s Employment Situation reported a decline of 63,000 two nonfarm payrolls in February and a revised loss in January, which increased the initial tally of 17,000 job losses to one of 22,000. The last time two consecutive months of decline occurred was in June 2003.

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03.10.08 Beth Mowry; Yoonsoo Lee; Economic Trends

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02.06.08 Beth Mowry; Andrea Pescatori; Economic Trends

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02.01.08 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends

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01.29.08 Beth Mowry; Yoonsoo Lee; Economic Trends

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01.09.08 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends

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12.10.07 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends

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12.05.07 Beth Mowry; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends

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November 9, 2007 Beth Mowry; Yoonsoo Lee; Economic Trends

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