| Title |
Date |
Publication |
Author(s) |
Type |
| Fourth District Employment Conditions
|
March, 2010 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Fourth District’s unemployment rate decreased 0.5 percentage point to 10.2 percent for the month of January. The decline in the unemployment rate is attributed to an increase of the number of people employed (0.8 percent), a decrease in the number of people unemployed (−3.6 percent) and an increase in the labor force (1.0 percent).
The distribution of unemployment rates among Fourth District counties ranges from 7.1 percent (Greene County, Pennsylvanis) to 21.2 percent (Magoffin County, Kentucky), with the median county unemployment rate at 11.3 percent. These county-level patterns are reflected in state-wide unemployment rates as Ohio and Kentucky have unemployment rates of 10.8 percent and 10.7 percent, respectively, compared to Pennsylvania’s 8.8 percent and West Virginia’s 9.3 percent.
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| Ohio’s Labor Market Cycles
|
March, 2010 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Now that it appears that the worst of the “great recession’ is over, assessing the damage done to Ohio’s labor market offers insights into what a potential recovery might look like in the state.
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| Signs of Abating Default Risk
|
March, 2010 |
|
Kyle Fee; Filippo Occhino; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Recent improvements in economic conditions may be having a positive effect on the risk of default in the economy, both for corporations and homeowners. We check a few measures of default risk to see if this is the case.
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| ISM Manufacturing
|
March, 2010 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The ISM’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined 1.9 points in February to an index value of 56.5. Although moderating in February, the diffusion index has now been above its growth threshold of 50 for seven consecutive months. The decline in the overall index stems from declines in production (7.8 points) and new orders (6.4 points) while all other components of the index improved during the month. The employment index increased from 53.3 to 56.1 indicating that the labor market in the manufacturing sector is continuing to improve. Inflation concerns remain in check as the prices index declined 3.0 points to 67.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, December 2009
|
February, 2010 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The District’s unemployment rose 0. 1 percent to 10.8 percent for the month of December. Since this same time last year, the Fourth District unemployment rate has increased by 3.1 percentage points and the national unemployment rate has increased and 2.8 percentage points.
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| ECI
|
January, 2010 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for civilian workers increased 1.8 percent (annualized rate) in the fourth quarter of 2009. Over the past year, the ECI is up only 1.5 percent, a new low in the history of the series. Wages and salaries for state and local government workers increased 1.4 percent following a slight dip of 0.4 percent in the 2009:Q3, while wages and salaries of workers in private industry increased 1.8 percent. Benefits rose 1.8 percent during the quarter, up from 1.5 percent in the previous quarter.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, November
|
January, 2010 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate remained at 10.7 percent for the month of November. Similar to the national payroll employment situation, Ohio and large metropolitan statistical areas in the Fourth District have recently seen payroll employment begin to bottom out.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions
|
December, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate jumped 0.7 percentage point to 10.7 percent for the month of October.
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| Ohio’s Economic Momentum
|
December, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: In recent remarks, Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke has stated that “from a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over at this point.” The data that lead him to that conclusion are unfortunately not produced at the state level, so it’s not possible to tell what they would show about the degree of recovery in individual states. But another source can give us an idea, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes, which measure real-time changes in state economic activity.
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| Measures of Economic Slack, Cost Pressure, and Inflation
|
December, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; Filippo Occhino; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: In its November 2009 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee appears to consider the level of resource utilization in the economy an important determinant of future inflation. A look at the historical relationship between inflation and two commonly used indicators of economic slack, the output gap and the unemployment rate, makes a good case for the view that slack and inflation are related. Current levels of those and other indicators of resource utilization all suggest a good degree of slack in the economy and contained cost pressures.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, September 2009
|
October, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 10.0 percent for the month of September. The drop in the District unemployment rate most likely does not indicate an improving labor market, as the drop stems mostly from a shrinking labor force (−1.5 percent since this time last year). During recessions, workers leave the labor force because they become discouraged and stop looking for work, effectively shrinking the base from which the unemployment rate is calculated.
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| The Effects of “Cash for Clunkers” on the Auto Industry
|
October, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: As of October 1, the “Cash for Clunkers” program has processed 670,557 reimbursements totaling $2.8 billion dollars. The program has received rave reviews in the media for its short-term success, but the open question is whether short-term successes facilitate long-term growth. Will the program jump start the restructured auto industry or will it result in mere transitory demand shifts, “stealing” from future consumption?
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| Fourth District Employment Condtions, August 2009
|
October, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage point to 10.2 percent for the month of August. Since this time last year, the Fourth District and the national unemployment rates have each increased 3.5 percentage points.
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| Pittsburgh's Labor Market Performance over the Recession
|
September, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: For two days, the leaders of the world’s 20 largest economies will meet to discuss potential reforms to the global economic system. Where will this international meeting take place, you ask? London? New York? Tokyo? All wrong. None other than the Fourth District’s own Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. And the city’ recent history provides its own story of economic reform.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions
|
September, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 10.1 percent for the month of July. An alternative measure of labor market conditions is the U-6 rate, which serves as an estimate for labor underutilization.
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| The Incidence and Duration of Unemployment over the Business Cycle
|
September, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; Murat Tasci; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The unemployment rate provides information on the number of people who are unemployed as a fraction of the labor force at any given point in time, but when it rises, it doesn’t tell us much about why. We can’t tell by looking at the rate whether people who are unemployed are staying unemployed longer or whether more workers have lost their jobs. To understand how much each of these factors contributes to a rise in the unemployment rate, we looked at inflows into unemployment (job separation rate) and outflows from the unemployment pool (job finding rate) for all postwar recessions.
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| Recent Forecasts of Government Debt
|
August, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; Filippo Occhino; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The 2009 federal budget deficit is now anticipated to be 11.2 percent of GDP, by far the largest value of the postwar period. Forecasts for the longer horizon are even more alarming, with the deficit expected to be consistently around 4 percent of GDP over the next decade. Congressional Budget Office forecasts tell a similar story.
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| Private Nonresidential Construction Investment
|
August, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: During the current recession, investment in residential structures and investment in private nonresidential structures have experienced markedly different paths. The sharp fall in residential investment led the economy into recession, while private nonresidential investment held up relatively well until the last two quarters.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, June 2009
|
August, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 10.2 percent in June, reflecting decreases in the number of people unemployed (-1.1 percent), the number of people employed (-0.3 percent), and the size of the labor force (-0.1 percent).
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| Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy
|
July, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; Charles T Carlstrom; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Over the month of June, the yield curve has continued to rise, which some see as evidence of higher inflation in the future. Based on our calculations of inflation-protected Treasury securities, we don't think so. After adjusting TIPS estimates of future inflation for a liquidity bias, we find that longer-term inflation expectations did not decline during the crisis and have not crept up significantly since then.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, May 2009
|
July, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: With the national unemployment rate up to 9.5 percent in June, the District’s unemployment rate jumped 0.6 percentage point to 10.3 percent for the month of May.
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| Gross Domestic Product Growth across States
|
July, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The Bureau of Economic Analysis recently released its annual report documenting patterns of gross domestic product growth across states. Real GDP growth slowed in 38 states in 2008, which included the Fourth District’s dismal numbers.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, April 2009
|
June, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate increased 0.4 percentage point to 9.7 percent for the month of April, 0.8 percentage point higher than the nation’s. Of the 169 counties that make up the District, 47 had an unemployment rate below the national rate in April, and 122 counties had a higher rate. Since this time last year, the Fourth District’s unemployment rate has increased 4.2 percentage points, and the nation’s, 3.9 percentage points.
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| Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy
|
June, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; Charles T Carlstrom; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The recent rise in the yield curve suggests to some observers that inflation expectations are rising. The yield curve may not be the best indicator of this possibility, but there are others. A look at these suggests that, while it is certainly too soon to conclude that long-term inflation expectations are increasing, recent signs warrant an ever-watchful eye to make sure they don’t.
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| Improving Financial Market Conditions and Economic Recovery
|
June, 2009 |
Economic Trends |
Kyle Fee; Filippo Occhino; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: After deteriorating sharply in August 2007 and then again in the fall of 2008, financial market conditions have improved markedly during the past quarter. Given the historical relationship between financial market conditions and economic activity, we interpret this as an encouraging sign that the economy may be recovering. The improvement in financial markets can be observed in the recent evolution of a few indicators of financial market stress, including indicators of borrowers’ credit risk, financial market liquidity, and uncertainty among market participants. We take a look at these indicators and explain how they may be related to economic activity.
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| Regional Labor Market Recessions and Recoveries
|
May, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: What is the recovery of the U.S. labor market expected to look like this time around and will the states follow the same pattern? Overall, Fourth District states have experienced somewhat different labor market cycles in the current recession. Ohio has had the weakest labor market, while Pennsylvania’s and West Virginia’s have been relatively strong. A current fear is that while we are experiencing a sharp labor market contraction similar in magnitude to the 1981 recession, we will have a labor market recovery similar to those which occurred after the 1990 or 2001 recessions—the so-called jobless recoveries.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, March 2009
|
April, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate increased 0.5 percentage point to 9.3 percent for the month of March. Since the recession began, the nation’s monthly unemployment rate has averaged 0.6 percentage point lower than the Fourth District unemployment rate. Year over year, the Fourth District and the national unemployment rates have increased 3.5 percentage points and 3.4 percentage points, respectively.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, February 2009
|
April, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate jumped 0.7 percentage point to 8.8 percent for the month of February. The District’s unemployment rate was again higher than the national rate in February (by 0.7 percentage point), as it has consistently been since early 2004. Since the recession began, the nation’s monthly unemployment rate has been 0.6 percentage point lower on average than the Fourth District unemployment rate.
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| Employment Loss in Ohio's Manufacturing Industry
|
March, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Ohio is often thought of as a state with a relatively large share of economic activity coming from the manufacturing sector, especially heavy manufacturing. Even after the sharp declines in the iron and steel industries in the 1980s, Ohio still had 21.7 percent of its workforce in the manufacturing sector in 1990. This was 34 percent more than the U.S. manufacturing employment share. However, over the last several decades, Ohio’s manufacturing employment has declined more rapidly than the nation’s as a whole.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, January 2009
|
March, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate shot up 0.6 percentage point to 8.1 percent for the month of January. Compared to the national rate in January, the District’s unemployment rate (0.5 percentage point) stood higher, as it has been since early 2004. However, over the past year the gap between unemployment rates has all but vanished as a result of the current recession. Since the same time last year, the Fourth District and the National unemployment rates have both increased by 2.7 percentage points.
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| The Recent Increase in the Volatility of Economic Indicators
|
February, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; Filippo Occhino; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: In recent months, we have seen a staggering increase in stock market volatility. One popular measure of market volatility, the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility Index (VIX), jumped to 62.6 in November 2008, higher than it’s ever been. Is there a corresponding increase in volatility of macroeconomic variables? To answer this question, we focused on four main economic indicators, GDP growth, employment growth, productivity growth, and inflation.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, December 2008
|
February, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate jumped 0.3 percentage point to 7.4 percent for the month of December (0.2 percentage point higher than the nation’s). Unemployment rates across Fourth District counties ranged from 5.2 percent to 13.1 percent, with the median county unemployment rate at 8.0 percent.
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| Ohio's Local Labor Markets
|
February, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Since the recession started in December 2007, the U.S. economy has shed 2.5 million jobs, or 1.9 percent of nonfarm payroll employment, and Ohio has reduced its payrolls by 1.6 percent. However, not all areas of Ohio have experienced similar employment losses.
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| Ohio's Business Cycle
|
January, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has designated December 2007 as the starting point of the current recession. However, the recession referred to is the nation’s as a whole—individual states vary with respect to the timing of their business cycles as well as in the severity of their recessions. To see how Ohio’s business cycle compares to those of other states and the nation, we examine the state coincident indexes published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, November 2008
|
January, 2009 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate remained steady at 7.0 percent for the month of November. As it has consistently been since early 2004, the District’s unemployment rate was higher than the nation’s (0.3 percentage point). Since this time last year, the Fourth District?s unemployment rate has increased 1.7 percentage points, while the nation’s has increased 2.0 percentage points.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, October 2008
|
December, 2008 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate rose 0.1 percent, reaching 7.0 percent in October and exceeding the nation’s rate by 0.5 percentage point. Year–over–year,the District’s unemployment rate has increased 1.5 percentage points, compared to the nation’s increase of 1.7 percentage points.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, September
|
November, 2008 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate remained steady at 6.9 percent for the month of September. The District’s rate was again higher than the nation's (by 0.8 percentage point).
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, August
|
October, 2008 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The District’s unemployment rate increased 0.2 percent, reaching 6.9 percent for the month of August. Compared to the nation’s unemployment rate, the District’s was again higher in August (by 0.8 percentage point), as it has consistently been since early 2004.
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| Cracks in the Real Economy
|
October, 2008 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Not too surprisingly, news of general economic activity has taken a backseat to news of the problems plaguing the U.S. financial system. A look at the main data releases of September (which describe the economic activity of August) suggests a picture of weakening across a broad range of the economy.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, July
|
September, 2008 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The district’s unemployment rate jumped up 0.4 percent to 6.6 percent for the month of July. The District’s rate was 0.9 percent higher than the nation’s in July, and it has been consistently higher since early 2004. Since this time last year, the Fourth District’s unemployment rate has increased 1.2 percentage points and the nation?s has increased 1.0 percentage points.
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| The Columbus Metropolitan Statistical Area
|
September, 2008 |
|
Kyle Fee; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Located in the geographic center of Ohio, the Columbus MSA is home to 1.75 million people dispersed across eight counties. Columbus’s population has grown faster than other Fourth District MSAs, and its workforce has a lower share of workers employed in manufacturing, factors which partly explain the MSA’s overall employment growth numbers as well as that of particular industries.
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| State Labor Markets
|
August, 2008 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Since the start of the credit crisis, labor markets in the 50 states have generally weakened. As the national unemployment rate rose from 4.7 percent to 5.5 percent from September 2007 to June 2008, the vast majority of U.S. states also saw rising unemployment rates. Within the Fourth District, Pennsylvania was the only state adding employment over the period.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, June
|
August, 2008 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The Fourth District’s unemployment rate notched up 0.1 percent in June, reaching 6.2 percent. The increase can be attributed to monthly increases in the number of people unemployed (0.6 percent) along with a decrease in the number of people employed (−0.3 percent). Since the same time last year, the Fourth District’s unemployment rate has increased 0.6 percentage point, while the nation’s has increased 1.1 percentage points.
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| Differences in Educational Attainment across States
|
July, 2008 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The relationship between economic growth and human capital is well established in economics. Looking at Fourth District states, Kentucky and Pennsylvania have above-average growth in the share of the population with both four-year and advanced degrees, while Ohio had below-average growth in both categories. West Virginia had a higher-than-average growth rate in four-year degrees, but the state remains the lowest ranked of the 50 states, with only 1 in 6 adults over 25 having earned a four-year college degree.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, May
|
July, 2008 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The district’s unemployment rate jumped 0.6 percent, to 6.1 percent, for the month of May. Compared to the national rate, the district’s unemployment rate stood 0.6 percent higher in May and has been consistently higher since early 2004. Since the same time last year, the Fourth District unemployment rate has increased 0.7 percentage point. The national rate has increased 1.0 percentage point.
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| Real Income Growth across Metropolitan Areas
|
June, 2008 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The economic performance of different regions is often compared by looking at differences in per capita income growth. Before income growth can be compared, though, it has to be adjusted for inflation. Often, a national price index is used to make the adjustment. But prices can grow at different rates in different areas of the country, and when regional price indexes are used instead of a national index to adjust the data on income growth, it can make a big difference.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, March
|
May, 2008 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Since this time last year, both the Fourth District and the national unemployment rates have increased by 0.7 percentage point. The district’s unemployment rate jumped 0.4 percent for the month of March. The increase in the unemployment rate can be attributed to increases in the number of people unemployed (6.6 percent) and the labor force (0.1 percent), along with a decrease in the number of people employed (−0.3 percent). The district’s unemployment rate was higher than the national rate in March (by 0.6 percent), as it has been since early 2004.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, February
|
April, 2008 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The district’s unemployment rate dropped 0.2 percent to 5.3 percent for the month of February. Of the district’s 169 counties, 29 had an unemployment rate below the national average in February and 140 had a higher one. Rural Appalachian counties continue to experience higher levels of unemployment.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, January
|
April, 2008 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The district’s unemployment rate dropped 0.1 percent to 5.6 percent for the month of January. Since this same time last year, the Fourth District’s unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage point, while the national rate rose 0.3 percentage point.
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| Labor Force Participation in the United States and Ohio
|
March, 2008 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, December
|
February, 2008 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
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| The Ups and Downs in Regional Employment Statistics
|
January, 2008 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; Guhan Venkatu; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract:
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| The Erie Metropolitan Statistical Area
|
January, 2008 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The Erie metropolitan statistical area (MSA) is located in the northwest corner of Pennsylvania on Lake Erie. Home to 279,811 people, Erie, a Great Lakes city, has an employment history of heavy industry and manufacturing. In 2006, Erie was still heavily invested in manufacturing industries, having about an 80 percent higher proportion of its workforce in manufacturing than the nation as a whole. Meanwhile, Erie?s service industry workforce was proportionately higher in health services industries relative to the nation and lower in information, financial, and professional business and services industries.
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, October
|
January, 2008 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
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| Business Establishments
|
December, 2007 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, September
|
December, 2007 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
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| The Cincinnati Metropolitan Statistical Area
|
November, 2007 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, August
|
October, 2007 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
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| Poverty and Income in the Fourth District
|
October, 2007 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, July
|
September, 2007 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, June
|
August, 2007 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
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| Ohio Exports
|
August, 2007 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
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| The Cleveland Metropolitan Statistical Area
|
August, 2007 |
|
Kyle Fee; Robert Sadowski; |
Economic Trends |
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| Fourth District Employment Conditions, May
|
July, 2007 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
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| Midwest Housing Markets
|
July, 2007 |
|
Kyle Fee; Timothy Dunne; |
Economic Trends |
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