Samuel B. Chapman |

Research Analyst


Samuel B. Chapman, Research Analyst

Samuel Chapman is a former research analyst in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

  • Fed Publications
Title Date Publication Author(s) Type

 

May, 2013 Samuel B Chapman; Yuliya Demyanyk; Economic Trends
Abstract: Since the end of the recent financial crisis, individuals have been reducing the large amounts of debt that they had built up prior to the recession. Recent studies show that the percentage of individuals holding debt in 2012 is less than in 2000.

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April, 2013 Samuel B Chapman; Daniel R Carroll; Economic Trends
Abstract: After steadily increasing for a decade, government spending and employment began to reverse course halfway into 2010. We are now almost four years into the recovery, and neither has returned to levels typical of past recoveries. Our trend analysis of government spending and employment suggests that it is still too soon to expect a return to historical norms after the Great Recession.

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February, 2013 Samuel B Chapman; Charles T Carlstrom; Saeed Zaman; Economic Trends
Abstract: There has been a lot of interest in financial circles in finding a guidepost or rule of thumb that reflects how monetary policymakers decide how to set interest rates. Given that the federal funds rate—the short-term interest rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)—has been at zero for a while, such a rule may not seem useful today. But presumably it will be once the rate is above zero, and it is interesting to see what the rule suggests about when the rate will increase. Some versions of the rule predict an earlier increase than the FOMC’s current projections, and we explain why this would be so.

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February, 2013 Samuel B Chapman; Yuliya Demyanyk; Economic Trends
Abstract: Americans’ debt burden—the ratio of debt payments to disposable income—grew steadily before the last recession and fell sharply once the recession began. But the changes were not spread uniformly across all states. Some states saw dramatic swings in the overall indebtedness of their residents. Others experienced little change.

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January, 2013 Samuel B Chapman; Daniel R Carroll; Economic Trends
Abstract: On many occasions during the past few years, housing market conditions have been cited as a key factor contributing to the slow recovery. For a typical household, the largest component of wealth is house value. The decline in house values has also been suggested as partly responsible for stubbornly high unemployment due to “lock-in,” where a household that is underwater on its mortgage limits its job search because it cannot afford to move.

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December, 2012 Samuel B Chapman; Charles T Carlstrom; Economic Trends
Abstract: In September, the Federal Open Market Committee announced what has widely been referred to as QE3 (quantitative easing 3). QE3 will consist of purchasing additional mortgage-backed securities at the rate of $40 billion per month. Unlike previous QEs, this one was described in open-ended terms, such that “if the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities.” The Committee did not specify, however, what“substantial improvement” would be.

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November, 2012 Samuel B Chapman; Yuliya Demyanyk; Economic Trends
Abstract: Since the end of the recent recession, the economy has been struggling to regain a solid footing and return to precrisis levels of employment and GDP. GDP has returned to positive growth, and despite an elevated unemployment rate, there are signs that the economy is slowly gaining traction and improving. One such indicator of positive growth is the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index, which surveys consumers’ level of optimism in the economy, and, theoretically, mirrors their level of willingness to consume.

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November, 2012 Samuel B Chapman; Daniel R Carroll; Economic Trends
Abstract: Investment is a key factor influencing economic growth. Investments in factories and machines, houses and computer software, all increase the capital available for production and expand the frontier of goods and services that workers can supply to the economy. As evidence, consider that investment today is strongly, positively correlated with GDP in the future. More than just expanding GDP in the future, growth in the capital stock through investment puts upward force on wages by making workers more productive.

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September, 2012 Samuel B Chapman; Kristle Romero Cortes; Economic Trends
Abstract: Recent reports indicate that banks are on much sounder footing than they were a few years ago. We take a look at the condition of 10 banks that are the peers of Bank of America, which was one of the first of the large banks to repay its Troubled Asset Relief Program funding in 2010. The latest data on asset growth, deposits, and loan loss reserves suggest that overall bank health is slowly on the road to recovery.

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August, 2012 Samuel B Chapman; Charles T Carlstrom; Economic Trends
Abstract: One area of active interest for both policymakers and market watchers is to find a simple rule (or rule of thumb) that approximates Fed policy on interest rates. John Taylor came up with the first such rule in 1993, and since then, a number of variations have been proposed. One variation suggests that the Fed responds positively to increases in inflation above target (currently 2 percent) and negatively when unemployment increases.

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