12.29.06
Existing Home Sales for November
Existing-home sales climbed a second straight time, and inventories fell during November in another sign that the housing market might be stabilizing. Home resales rose to a 6.28 million annual rate, a 0.6 percent increase from October's unrevised 6.24 million annual pace. The median home price was $218,000 in November, down from a revised $219,000 in October and lower than $225,000 in November 2005.
12.27.06
New Home Sales for November
Sales of new homes rose 3.5% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.047 million. This leaves sales down 15.3% over the past year. Sales in October were revised higher.
The median sales price of a new home rose by 3.2%, reaching $251,700. The number of new homes on the market last month dropped 1.4%. At 545,000, this represented a 6.3-month supply at the November rate. Some analysts argue that home sales and construction "are in better balance than they have been for some time."
12.22.06
Durable Goods
In November, durable goods orders excluding transportation fell 1.1 percent and nondefense/aircraft capital goods orders and shipments fell sharply. Orders excluding transportation have now fallen in four of the past five months.
12.22.06
Personal Income and Outlays
Both personal income and wages and salaries rose 0.3 percent in November. Although the rise in personal income matched October's gain, it is down from the average 0.5 percent gain over the previous four months. Both nominal and real personal consumption expenditures rose 0.5 percent, bringing the savings rate down to -1.0 percent, its lowest level since July. Similar to trends in the CPI released earlier this month, the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (PCE) and the PCE excluding food and energy prices were unchanged in November.
12.21.06
GDP, Final Revision
The final revision to GDP showed 2006:IIIQ annualized growth at 2.0 percent, less than the consensus expectation, and 0.2 percent less than the preliminary estimate. Aside from a small uptick in business spending on equipment and software, virtually every other expenditure category was revised slightly downward.
12.19.06
November Producer Prices
The Producer Price Index increased at its fastest rate since 1974 in November, rising 2.0 percent, more than offsetting its 1.6 percent decline in October. The PPI excluding food and energy also increased at its fastest rate since 1980, rising 1.3 percent, more than offsetting its 0.9 percent decline in October. The jump in November's PPI reflects large increases in energy (gasoline) and motor vehicle (light truck) prices, which may be caused by difficulties in seasonally-adjusting the truck data.
12.19.06
November Housing Starts
Housing starts exceeded expectations and rose 6.7 percent in November to 1.59 million units, partially offsetting the sharp decline in October (when starts reached their lowest level since mid-2000). The average level of housing starts over the past two months is 1.54 million units, about 27 percent down from the last peak in the series, in the third quarter of 2005.
12.15.06
November Consumer Price Index
The CPI remained unchanged in November. Even the CPI less food and energy was exceptionally well behaved, rising a mere 0.6 percent (annualized) for the month. Meanwhile, the median CPI (produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) rose a stubbornly high 3 percent in November (annualized). Over the last 12 months, the CPI is up 2 percent, the CPI excluding food and energy has risen 2.6 percent, and the median CPI grew 3.7 percent.
12.15.06
November Industrial Production
Industrial production increased 0.2 percent in November, a slightly stronger gain than the market had anticipated. However, production was not as strong as the top-line data would suggest since a majority of the growth came from a surprising increase in motor vehicle production; this seems to conflict with anecdotal evidence and industry data on production during the month. Industries related to business investment had a good month, with computers, aerospace and machinery production all posting gains. On the flip side, production related to housing (furniture, appliances) and construction showed some weakness.
12.14.06
Import Prices
The import price report provided a somewhat favorable read on import price pressures in November. Import prices rose a mere 2.1 percent (annualized rate) during the month, largely reflecting the continued decline in petroleum prices. Nonpetroleum import prices jumped 8.4 percent (annualized rate) during the month, up from longer-term trends. However, this largely reflects an increase in industrial supplies and materials, which was driven by a sharp upturn in natural gas prices (following a large decline in natural gas prices in October) Meanwhile, consumer goods prices excluding autos (and petroleum products) remained stable in November and continued to decelerate from longer-term trends.
12.13.06
November Retail Sales
Retail sales jumped 1.0 percent in November, well above analyst expectations of a 0.2 percent rise. Although motor vehicle and parts sales were up a modest 0.1 percent for the third consecutive month, non-auto sales rose a strong 1.1 percent with broadly based gains.
12.12.06
October Trade Deficit
The U.S. trade deficit declined in October, falling short of consensus estimates, with imports exceeding exports by $58.9 billion, down from $64.3 billion in September. While this month's decline in large part reflected falling oil prices, the non-petroleum trade balance also improved modestly in October.
12.08.06
Household Inflation Expectations
Short-term average inflation expectations ticked up to 3.5 percent from 3.3 percent in early December, while long-term expectations, which are more correlated with movements in the core CPI, continue to be on the high side and inched up to 3.6 percent in early December.
12.08.06
November Employment Report
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 132,000 workers in November. The gain was above expectations, but just slightly under the three-month average of 138,000 jobs. Strength was centered in the service sector—it was up 172,000 jobs last month—while weakness in the homebuilding and remodeling sectors drained 29,000 jobs in the construction industry. Manufacturing employment was also soft in November—down 15,000 workers. Meanwhile, the civilian unemployment rate edged up from 4.4 percent to 4.5 percent, though the rate is still below the first nine months of the year.
12.05.06
Productivity and Costs (third quarter)
Nonfarm business sector productivity growth was revised up from the preliminary report of 0.0 percent to 0.2 percent; productivity was 1.4 percent above a year ago. At the same time, hourly compensation was revised downward in both the second and third quarters and, as a result, nonfarm business unit labor cost growth was significantly reduced from the preliminary 3.8 percent to 2.3 percent in the third quarter and from 5.4 percent to 2.4 percent in the second quarter.
12.05.06
Factory Orders (October)
Factory orders fell 4.7 percent in October, with declines posted in both the durable and nondurable sectors. New orders for construction and metalworking machinery, computers, communications equipment, and nondefense aircraft were all off sharply from September.
12.01.06
Construction Spending
Construction spending fell 1.0 percent in October, its largest drop in five years. Weakness was seen in both residential and nonresidential construction, although public construction spending increased 0.8 percent from September.
12.01.06
ISM Manufacturing (November)
The national ISM index dipped to 49.5 in November—its first time below the expansionary threshold of 50 since the spring of 2003. Softness was especially evident for new orders, although the readings on production and employment were also down.