Mehmet Pasaogullari |

Research Economist

Mehmet Pasaogullari, Research Economist

Mehmet Pasaogullari is a research economist in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. His research areas include macroeconomics, financial economics, and applied econometrics. In particular, he works on the macroeconomics explanations of the nominal term structure slope and the interaction between monetary policy and the yield curve.

Dr. Pasaogullari received his PhD in economics from Columbia University.  He has a BA in management from Bogazici University (Istanbul, Turkey) and an MA in economics from Bilkent University (Ankara, Turkey).

  • Fed Publications
Title Date Publication Author(s) Type


2014-01 ; Patricia Waiwood; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Some analysts pay particular attention to oil prices, thinking they might give an advance signal of changes in inflation. However, using a variety of statistical tests, we find that adding oil prices does little to improve forecasts of CPI inflation. Our results suggest that higher oil prices today do not necessarily signal higher CPI inflation next year, although they do help to explain short-term movements in the CPI. [ Online extras (tables with results of all model specifications)]



December, 2011 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, working paper no. 11-33 ; Simeon Tsonev; Working Papers
Abstract: We propose a DSGE model with regime switching in the central bank’s inflation target to explain inflation compensation in the UK. Taking advantage of the well-documented change in UK monetary policy to adopt inflation targeting, we estimate our model using nominal and inflation-linked Treasury bond data from the UK from 1985 to 2007. We find that this model can account for the term structure of inflation compensation in the nominal yield curve by generating regime-dependent conditional expectations of future inflation.



May, 2011 Vol. 2, No. 2 ; Brent Meyer; Forefront
Abstract: Because there is a difference between inflation and relative price changes.



2010-17 ; Brent Meyer; Economic Commentary
Abstract: There are many ways to forecast the future rate of inflation, ranging from sophisticated statistical models involving hundreds of variables to hunches based on past experience. We generate a number of forecasts using a simple statistical model and an even simpler estimating rule, adding in various measures thought to be helpful in predicting the course of inflation. Then we compare their forecast accuracy. We find that no single specification outperforms all others over all time periods. For example, the median and 16 percent trimmed-mean measures outperform all other specifications during the 1990s, and survey-based inflation expectations seem to do better during volatile periods.