Edward S. Knotek II |

Vice President


Edward S. Knotek II, Vice President

Edward S. Knotek II is a vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, where he leads the development of the Bank’s forecasting models. Dr. Knotek’s research interests focus on macroeconomics and monetary economics. In addition to forecasting, he has conducted research on firms’ price-setting behavior, inflation dynamics, unemployment movements over the business cycle, consumers’ responses to uncertainty, and consumer debt dynamics.

Dr. Knotek joined the Bank in 2012 from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, where he held the position of vice president and economist.  He began his career as an economist at the Kansas City Fed in 2005. 

Dr. Knotek received a B.A. in mathematics-economics and Spanish from Denison University.  He received his M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan.

  • Fed Publications
  • Other Publications
Title Date Publication Author(s) Type

 

March, 2014 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, working paper no. 14-01 ; John Carter Braxton; Working Papers
Abstract: Consumer debt played a central role in creating the U.S. housing bubble, the ensuing housing downturn, and the Great Recession, and it has been blamed as a factor in the weak subsequent recovery as well. This paper uses micro-level data to decompose consumer debt dynamics by separating the actions of consumer debt increasers and decreasers, and then further decomposing movements into percentage and size margins among the increasers and decreasers. We view such a decomposition as informative for macroeconomic models featuring a central role for consumer debt. Using this framework, we show that variations in borrowing activity among the increasers explain four times as much of the total variation in consumer debt as variations among the decreasers who are shedding debt, whether through paydowns or defaults. We also provide micro-level evidence of a sharp decline in the percentage of increasers during the financial crisis that is qualitatively consistent with a binding zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, and evidence of a cycle in the average size of debt changes among the increasers that is related to rising collateral values pre-crisis coupled with additional financial frictions after the crisis.

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2013-19 ; Saeed Zaman; Economic Commentary
Abstract: The Federal Open Market Committee has been providing guidance to help markets anticipate when it will begin raising the federal funds rate target. The most recent guidance suggests that the target will not change at least until after an unemployment or inflation threshold is breached. We use a forecasting model to estimate when these thresholds are likely to be breached. We also consider how an inflation floor would affect the timing of liftoff.

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December, 2012 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, fourth quarter, 97(4): 31?54. ; John Carter Braxton; Other FRB Publications

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May, 2011 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, second quarter, 96(2): 5-34. ; Economic Review

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September, 2009 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, third quarter, 94(3): 5-33. ; Stephen J Terry; Economic Review

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November, 2007 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, fourth quarter, 92(4): 73-103. ; Economic Review

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Title Date Publication Author(s) Type

 

January, 2011 Review of Economics and Statistics 93(3): 1076-86. ; Journal Article

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January, 2011 Economics Letters 110(1): 4-6. ; Stephen J Terry; Journal Article

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January, 2010 Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 42(8): 1543-64. ; Journal Article

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January, 2008 Journal of Monetary Economics 55(7): 1303-16. ; Journal Article

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Stagflation

 

June, 2004 The Social Science Encyclopedia, 3rd ed., New York: Routledge. ; Robert B Barsky; Article in Book

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