| Title |
Date |
Publication |
Author(s) |
Type |
| Measuring Household Economic Stress
|
August, 2009 |
The Housing and Mortgage Market Review |
LaVaughn M Henry; David Berson; |
Economic Commentary |
| Abstract: For the past 40 years, economists have used various measures to estimate the amount of economic stress that the nation was feeling at any point in time. The unemployment rate, consumer inflation rate, and others have become most common in the popular economic lexicon. Today, however, much of the economic stress felt by households stems from the sharp decline in household wealth that has come mostly from falling house prices.
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| The Jumbo Mortgage Market?A Major Casualty of the Housing Market Decline
|
July, 2009 |
The Housing and Mortgage Market Review |
LaVaughn M Henry; David Berson; |
Economic Commentary |
| Abstract: Much has been written about the evisceration of the subprime and Alt-A mortgage markets, and how they contributed to the broader decline in the housing and mortgage markets. Relatively little, however, has been written about the jumbo loan marke—those mortgages with loan amounts exceeding the statutory limitations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Government Sponsored Enterprises, or GSEs).
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| An Update on Mortgage Loan Modification Programs
|
June, 2009 |
The Housing and Mortgage Market Review |
LaVaughn M Henry; David Berson; |
Economic Commentary |
| Abstract: Although we think that the bottom in home sales has been passed, the tumult in the mortgage market is likely to continue for a while. Specifically, as a result of ongoing home price declines, upward payment adjustments on option ARMs, and unemployment increases—exacerbated by significant negative equity on many homeowners’ balance sheets—mortgage defaults are expected to rise further from their already record level over the next year.
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| Leading Economic Indicators of Future
|
May, 2009 |
The Housing and Mortgage Market Review |
LaVaughn M Henry; David Berson; |
Economic Commentary |
| Abstract: There are several regular surveys whose results are viewed as near-term leading indicators of housing market activity. This article looks at the National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index(PHSI), The National Association of Homebuilders /Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), and the Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Applications Survey(specifically the purchase applications
component). We also consider PMI’s U.S. Market Risk Index with regard to its ability to predict future trends in house prices in each of the nation’s 381 MSAs.
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| What is Pushing Serious Delinquency Rates Up So Much?
|
April, 2009 |
The Housing and Mortgage Market Review |
LaVaughn M Henry; David Berson; |
Economic Commentary |
| Abstract: The national unemployment rate has jumped to 8.5 percent from its trough of 4.4 percent in March 2007 (and non-farm payroll employment has declined by 5.1 million from peak-to-trough
in this cycle). Over mostly the same period, national home prices have fallen by 21 percent (using the First American Core Logic Loan Performance house price index).
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| The Magnitude and Impact of Negative Equity
|
March, 2009 |
The Housing and Mortgage Market Review |
LaVaughn M Henry; David Berson; |
Economic Commentary |
| Abstract: According to a recent study by FirstAmerican CoreLogic (FACL), over 8.3 million houses in the United States (about 20 percent of all homes with a mortgage) had mortgages that were larger than the value of the property at the end of 2008. This was up from 7.6 million houses (about 18 percent) at the end of the third quarter. During the fourth quarter, an average of 230,000 houses per month slid into negative equity positions.
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| Why is the Number of Vacant Units Up Again When the Inventory of Homes for Sale is Down?
|
February, 2009 |
The Housing and Mortgage Market Review |
LaVaughn M Henry; David Berson; |
Economic Commentary |
| Abstract: Popular measures of the number of homes for sale show that they have fallen in recent months. The Census Bureau’s monthly estimate of the number of new homes for sale fell to 357,000 units in December, down by 38 percent from their July 2006 peak and at the lowest level since ugust 2003. The National Association of Realtors’ monthly estimate of total homes for sale dropped to 3.68 million units in ecember, down by nearly 20 percent from their peak just five months earlier and at the lowest level since January 2007.
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| Are Adjustable Rate Mortgages Next to be Included in the Endangered Species Act?
|
January, 2009 |
The Housing and Mortgage Market Review |
LaVaughn M Henry; David Berson; |
Economic Commentary |
| Abstract: In February 2004, former Federal Reserve Board Chair Alan Greenspan stated, “American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage.” He noted that given the long-term downward trend in interest rates, households might have done better by using adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and riding those rates downward than by using fixed-rate mortgages and having to refinance at certain intervals in order to benefit from lower rates (and certainly would have done better than staying in a higher rate FRM without refinancing).
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| Recognizing a Bottom in the Housing Market
|
December, 2008 |
The Housing and Mortgage Market Review |
LaVaughn M Henry; David Berson; |
Economic Commentary |
| Abstract: National house prices have fallen sharply since they peaked in 2006 or 2007 (depending upon which measure of prices is used). Peak-to-current declines in the three widely used repeat-transaction house price indices (HPIs) are −15.0 percent for Loan Performance (LP), −21.3 percent for S&P/Case-Shiller (Case-Shiller), and −7.9 percent for the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).
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| Real House Price Declines
|
November, 2008 |
The Housing and Mortgage Market Review |
LaVaughn M Henry; David Berson; |
Economic Commentary |
| Abstract: It is well known by now that national house prices are falling, a rare occurrence (although regional price declines, sometimes significant, happen more often). Less well known is that when adjusted for inflation, national house prices normally decline in recessions, with the 2001 downturn the only time this has not occurred (with data back to the late 1960s). In the current cycle the decline in house prices since the late-2005/early-2006 peak, coupled with inflation over the same period, have combined to erase almost all of the above-normal real home price gains achieved between 2000 and 2005. Moreover, it appears that this decline in real house prices is not over yet.
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| Unemployment and House Prices—Round Two of House Price Declines
|
October, 2008 |
The Housing and Mortgage Market Review |
LaVaughn M Henry; David Berson; |
Economic Commentary |
| Abstract: Thus far the primary cause of the national decline in home prices has been the substantial and long-lasting overhang of homes for sale, augmented by the increasing rate of foreclosures. With the slowdown in the economy, however, unemployment rates have increased across much of the country, and they probably haven?t peaked yet. The rise in unemployment rates will delay the bottoming in house prices, as more households will need to sell their homes as joblessness reduces their income and ability to afford their mortgage payments.
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