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Daniel Carroll |

Research Economist

Daniel Carroll, Research Economist

Daniel Carroll is a research economist in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. His primary research interests are macroeconomics, public finance, and political economy. Currently, he is studying the implications of progressive income taxation for the distributions of wealth and income.

Dr. Carroll received a PhD in economics from the University of Virginia. He has a BA from Whitman College in Walla Walla, Washington.

  • Fed Publications
  • Other Publications
Title Date Publication Author(s) Type

 

 October, 2011 ; John Lindner; Economic Commentary
Abstract: The United States is not the first advanced modern economy to face a serious federal budget challenge. A number of countries have seen their debt rise to unacceptable levels in recent decades, and they have taken steps to rein it in. We explore the approaches that Canada and the United Kingdom have used. Though there are important differences in approaches and countries, we draw five useful lessons for the reforms that may be proposed in the U.S. as it addresses its fiscal challenges.
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 May, 2011 Web Exclusives ; Forefront
Abstract: Not if the Federal Reserve does its job.
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 February, 2011 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, working paper no. 11-06 ; Working Papers
Abstract: This paper examines the degree of income tax progressivity chosen through a simple majority vote in a model with savings. Households have permanent differences with respect to their labor productivity and their discount factors. The government has limited commitment to future policy, so voting is repeated every period. Because the model features mobility within the wealth distribution, the median voter is determined endogenously. In a numerical experiment, the model is initialized to the 1992 U.S. joint distribution of income and wealth as well as several statistics of the federal income tax distribution. Support for a high degree of progressivity is widespread. In the long run, households that vote for lower progressivity have high labor productivity and/or very high wealth. A movement towards greater progressivity increases aggregate capital and income, but it effects only a small decrease in long-run income and wealth inequality.
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 December, 2009 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper, no. 09-13 ; Eric R Young; Working Papers
Abstract: This paper compares the steady state outcomes of revenue-neutral changes to the progressivity of the tax schedule. Our economy features heterogeneous households who differ in their preferences and permanent labor productivities, but it does not have idiosyncratic risk. We find that increases in the progressivity of the tax schedule are associated with long-run distributions with greater aggregate income, wealth, and labor input. Average hours generally declines as the tax schedule becomes more progressive implying that the economy substitutes away from less productive workers toward more productive workers. Finally, as progressivity increases, income inequality is reduced and wealth inequality rises. Many of these results are qualitatively different than those found in models with idiosyncratic risk, and therefore suggest closer attention should be paid to modeling the insurance opportunities of households.
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 July, 2009 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper no. 0906 ; Eric R Young; Working Papers
Abstract: This paper studies sunspot fluctuations in a model with heterogeneous households. We find that wealth inequality reduces the degree of increasing returns needed to produce indeterminacy, while wage inequality increases it. When the model is calibrated to match the joint distribution of hours, income, and wealth, the required degree of increasing returns to scale is still much too high to be supported empirically (although smaller than similar homogeneous agent economies). We also find that the model robustly predicts only one sunspot, despite having 1,262 predetermined state variables.
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Title Date Publication Author(s) Type
The Long-Run Effects of Changes in Tax Progressivity

 

 September, 2011 Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 35, no. 9, pp. 1451-1473 ; Eric R Young; Journal Article
Abstract: This paper studies sunspot fluctuations in a model with heterogeneous households. We find that wealth inequality reduces the degree of increasing returns needed to produce indeterminacy, while wage inequality increases it. When the model is calibrated to match the joint distribution of hours, income, and wealth, the required degree of increasing returns to scale is still much too high to be supported empirically (although smaller than similar homogeneous agent economies). We also find that the model robustly predicts only one sunspot, despite having 1,262 predetermined state variables.
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The Stationary Wealth Distribution under Progressive Taxation

 

 July, 2009 Review of Economic Dynamics, July 2009 ; Eric R Young; Journal Article
Abstract: This paper studies sunspot fluctuations in a model with heterogeneous households. We find that wealth inequality reduces the degree of increasing returns needed to produce indeterminacy, while wage inequality increases it. When the model is calibrated to match the joint distribution of hours, income, and wealth, the required degree of increasing returns to scale is still much too high to be supported empirically (although smaller than similar homogeneous agent economies). We also find that the model robustly predicts only one sunspot, despite having 1,262 predetermined state variables.
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