Inflation Nowcasting

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily nowcasts of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the consumer price index (CPI). Nowcasts are estimates or forecasts of the current period's rate of inflation—inflation in a given month or quarter—before the official CPI or PCE inflation data are released. Nowcasts can help to give a sense of where inflation is today and where it is likely to be in the future.

The nowcasts are produced with a model that uses a small number of available data series at different frequencies, including daily oil prices, weekly gasoline prices, and monthly CPI and PCE inflation readings. The model generates nowcasts of monthly inflation, and these are combined to form nowcasts of current-quarter inflation. As with any forecast, there is no guarantee that the nowcasts will be accurate all of the time.  But historically, the Cleveland Fed's model nowcasts have done quite well—in many cases, they have been more accurate than common benchmarks from alternative statistical models and even consensus nowcasts from surveys of professional forecasters.

Updated daily by 10:00 a.m. Eastern time.

Monthly Nowcasts

  Inflation, month-over-month percent change  
Nowcast month CPI Core CPI PCE Core PCE Updated
October 20140.110.140.10.1210/17/2014
September 20140.130.140.110.1210/17/2014

  Inflation, year-over-year percent change  
Nowcast month CPI Core CPI PCE Core PCE Updated
October 20141.761.761.531.4910/17/2014
September 20141.671.741.481.4910/17/2014

Note: if the cell is blank it implies that the actual data corresponding to the nowcast month for that inflation measure has already been released.

Quarterly Nowcasts

  Quarterly annualized percent change  
Nowcast quarter CPI Core CPI PCE Core PCE Updated
2014:Q31.161.311.311.4310/17/2014
2014:Q40.581.570.851.4210/17/2014

Note: if the cell is blank it implies that the actual data corresponding to the nowcast quarter for that inflation measure has already been released.

 

  • Quarterly
  • Monthly (month-over-month)
  • Monthly (year-over-year)
Year:Quarter  

Chart will load here

Click on the name of an inflation measure to select or deselect from the chart.

 

Month-Year  

Chart will load here

Click on the name of an inflation measure to select or deselect from the chart.

 

Month-Year  

Chart will load here

Click on the name of an inflation measure to select or deselect from the chart.