Keeping you up to date on the latest data releases.
- Durable Goods
New orders for durable goods jumped up 4.6 percent in December, following a modest 0.7 percent in November. Despite some signs of near-term momentum, growth in new orders for durables is roughly flat on a year-over-year basis (up just 0.2 percent). Some of the growth in durables orders has been tied to increases in transportation orders, which are notoriously noisy. Excluding this volatile category, orders rose 1.3 percent in December, but are actually down 2.8 percent on a year-over-year basis. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which is used to evaluate the near-term outlook in equipment and software investment, increased just 0.2 percent in December, but that is on the heels of two consecutive 3.0 percent monthly gains that has pushed it’s near-term (three-month) annualized growth rate up to 28.1 percent (its highest growth rate since May 2011). Still, on a year-over-year basis, the series is down 4.3 percent. Shipments of durable goods rose 1.3 percent in December, after an upwardly revised 1.8 percent increase in December. Over the past year, shipments are up 4.8 percent. More importantly, over the last 3 months of 2012, shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, rose 2.8 percent, compared to 3.0 percent decrease over the previous 3 months. This should prove positive sign for fourth quarter equipment and software investment. On a year-over-year basis, shipments of non-defense cap goods ex aircraft are up 2.0 percent.