Keeping you up to date on the latest data releases.
- Durable Goods
New orders for durable goods were flat in October, following a volatile couple of months (down 13.1 percent in August and up 9.2 percent in September). Much of the headline volatility in orders is due to large swings in transportation equipment orders over the past few months. Excluding transportation equipment, new orders rose 1.5 percent in October following a 1.7 percent gain in September. Despite the relative strength in the near-term, on a year-over-year basis new orders excluding transportation equipment are down 2.3 percent over the past year. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which is used to evaluate the near-term outlook in equipment and software investment, jumped up 1.7 percent in October, helping to pull its three-month annualized growth rate up from −20.9 percent to 6.4 percent. Still, the series is down 8.1 percent over the past year. Shipments of durable goods fell 0.6 percent in October, more than reversing a 0.5 percent increase in September. Perhaps more disconcerting is that shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which map directly into GDP, have fallen in each of the last 4 months and were down 0.4 percent in October. On a year-over-year basis, shipments of non-defense cap goods ex aircraft are up just 0.9 percent and have fallen sharply since a recent high of 9.6 percent in early 2012.