Keeping you up to date on the latest data releases.
- Durable Goods
New orders for durable goods increased 4.2 percent (nonannualized) in July, following an increase of 1.6 percent in June. Overall, orders have been positive for three straight months, with the 3-month trend currently at 2.4 percent, and are up 4.9 percent since July of last year. However, as has been the case over the past few months, the rise in the overall number for July was driven primarily by an increase in the volatile orders for transportation equipment, which jumped 14.1 percent for the month following a rise of 10.8 percent in June. A large portion of the recent surge in orders for transportation equipment is coming from the airline industry, as orders for aircraft and parts has increased 29.8 percent and 35.9 percent in June and July, respectively. New orders excluding transportation have actually been negative over the past couple of months, falling 0.4 percent in July and 2.2 percent (downwardly revised) in June. The year-over-year growth rate in orders excluding transportation has moved into negative territory for the first time since 2009, dropping to −0.3 percent from 1.8 percent in the prior month. New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, which is used to evaluate the near-term outlook in equipment and software investment, fell for the second consecutive month, dropping 3.4 percent in July. The year-over-year change in this series has turned negative over the past few months as well, dropping from 2.2 percent in May to −1.7 percent in June, and finally, to −5.6 percent last month. Shipments of durable goods were up 2.6 percent after being flat in June, and after excluding transportation, are up 0.3 percent for the month. Inventories for durable goods increased 0.7 percent in July, as the near-term (3-month) trend increased from 0.3 percent to 0.5 percent.