Keeping you up to date on the latest data releases.
Real GDP rose at an annualized rate of 1.5 percent in the second quarter, slowing a bit from a 2.0 percent increase in the first quarter. The deceleration in growth relative to the first quarter was primarily driven by a slower growth rate in real consumption (1.5 percent versus 2.5 percent), and real business fixed investment (7.5 percent to 5.4 percent). The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its annual revision alongside the second quarter release, covering data back to 2009. The year-over-year growth rate in real GDP was revised up for 2009 (from −3.5 percent to −3.1 percent); revised down from 3.0 percent to 2.4 percent growth in 2010; and was nudged up for 2011 (from 1.7 percent to 1.8 percent). Importantly, the four-quarter growth rate now appears to have held fairly constant (around 2.0 percent) during the recovery, rather than exhibit a deceleration from a recent peak of 3.5 percent in mid-2010. Among the components, the largest changes during the revision were to real private nonresidential investment and real government expenditures. The level of real private nonresidential investment as of 2012:Q1 was pushed down 1.7 percent during the annual revision, and the level of real government expenditures was revised up by 1.1 percent as of 2012:Q1 (though most of that came in 2009 and 2010). The trajectory in real personal consumption was largely unchanged during the revision.