Keeping you up to date on the latest data releases.
Nonfarm payrolls added a mere 80,000 jobs in June, following a slight upward revision to May’s estimate (up from 69,000 to 77,000), but the gain is well off the 12-month pace of 148,000 per month. On net, revisions to the past two months were a wash. That said, the composition of the revisions shifted roughly 20,000 from public to private payrolls. Payroll growth in the second quarter slowed dramatically relative to its average monthly gain in the first quarter (75,000 vs. 226,000). Even if you were clinging to a story that the first quarter was elevated relative to its underlying trajectory and the second quarter is under-reporting the trend, that still leaves the average monthly gain in payrolls over the last six months at 150,000.
For context: The average monthly increase in the civilian labor force over the past 30 years is 125,000, so continued employment gains around 150,000 would do little to tamp down the unemployment rate. In June, most of the meager employment gains came from the private service-providing sector, which increased 71,000 compared to a 13,000 increase in goods-producing payrolls. And, of that 13,000 increase in goods-producing employment, roughly half was due to an increase in motor vehicle and parts payrolls (+7,000). Mining and logging employment was flat in June, and payrolls in the construction industry edged up just 2,000 after a relatively large 35,000 decline in May.
On the service side, temporary employment jumped up 25,000 accounting for 35 percent of the overall sector’s increase in June. Leisure and hospitality payrolls posted the next-largest gain in June, rising 13,000, and reversing losses of 7,000 in May and 4,000 in April. Transportation and warehousing payrolls slipped down 2,000 in June, but that was after a relatively large 32,000 increase in May. Employment losses in June were also seen in retail trade (down 5,400) and the information industry (down 8,000). On the household side of the report; the unemployment rate remained at 8.2 percent in June, as an increase in the civilian labor force of 156,000 slightly outpaced an increase in the number of employed persons (up 128,000). The employment-to-population ratio was also unchanged in June, remaining at 58.6 percent.