Keeping you up to date on the latest data releases.
- Durable Goods
New orders for durable goods jumped up 4.0 percent (nonannualized) in July, rebounding from an 1.3 percent decrease in June (that was revised up from a 2.1 percent drop). A strong July reading combined with upward revisions have turned its 3-month annualized growth rate from a 7.1 percent decline to a 20.3 percent increase. The 12-month growth rate in durables orders improved from 8.6 percent in June to 9.2 percent in July. Much of July’s increase was driven by new orders for autos, which spiked up 11.5 percent during the month. Still, excluding transportation equipment, new orders rose 0.7 percent in July, pushing its near-term (3-month) annualized trend up from 5.1 percent to 8.5 percent, just slightly softer than its 12-month trend of 9.6 percent. An important signal of future equipment and software investment—new orders of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—fell 1.5 percent in July, following a modest 0.6 percent gain in June. This led to a slight loss of momentum in its near-term trend, but its year-over-year growth rate still stands at a robust 10.8 percent. Shipments of durables, increased 2.5 percent in July, following an upwardly revised 1.1 percent gain in June, and are now up up 7.0 percent over the past year. As was the case with new orders, shipments of autos comprised much of the overall gain. Though after excluding transportation equipment, shipments still increased 0.9 percent in July. Durables inventories continued to swell in July, increasing 0.8 percent and, at a year-over-year growth rate of 12.6 percent, remain near its current cyclical high.