Keeping you up to date on the latest data releases.
- The Employment Situation
Nonfarm payrolls rose 117,000 in July, following an upwardly revised 46,000 in June and 53,000 in May. The revisions added 56,000 on net. Private payrolls were a little stronger than the headline as the government sector shed 37,000 workers (mostly state and local). Since last July government payrolls are down 547,000 workers. Private payrolls rose 154,000 in July and are averaging 111,000 over the past three months (though thatandrsquo;s still well short of its average of 204,000 over the first four months of the year). Goods-producing payrolls rose 42,000 in July, in line with its average over the first four months of the year, after posting two consecutive gains of 20,000 or less. Manufacturing employment rose 24,000 in July, accounting for most of the overall increase in goods-producing payrolls. The gain was bolstered by a 12,000 jump up in motor vehicles and parts employment, likely as supply chain disruptions dissipated. Private-sector employment rose 112,000 in July, following a 64,000 increase in June. Gains were mixed across most major categories, with the largest gains in health care and social assistance (up 37,000), professional and business services (up 34,000), and retail trade (up 26,000). Interestingly, temporary help services, which had been a large part of the initial recovery in employment, were roughly flat in July and have actually fallen roughly 18,000 over the past four months. On the household side, the unemployment rate edged down to 9.1 percent, though that appears to largely be a function of a decrease in the labor forceandmdash;which slipped down roughly 200,000 in July. The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 63.9 percent (a fresh cyclical low). Importantly, the employment-to-population ratio also edged down 0.1 percentage point to 58.1 percent (also a new cyclical low).