Keeping you up to date on the latest data releases.
Third quarter real GDP was revised up during the third estimate, from 2.5 percent to 2.6 percent, though rounding somewhat overstates the actual change, which was from 2.53 percent to 2.56 percent. While real was largely unchanged in aggregate, the details were a little more pessimistic. The current revision was largely due to a higher estimate for the change in private inventories which was almost completely offset by a relatively large downward revision to consumption. Private inventories added 1.6 percentage points to real GDP growth in the third quarter, revised up by 0.3 percentage point over the second estimate. Real personal consumption was revised down from 2.8 percent to a gain of 2.4 percent in the third quarter, though is still slightly higher than a 2.2 percent increase in the second quarter. All of the knockdown to consumption came from service (revised down from an increase of 2.5 percent to 1.6 percent), as durable and nondurable spending was actually revised up slightly. Real consumption’s contribution to output growth in the third quarter slipped down 0.3 percentage point to 1.7 percentage points during the revision. With the downward revision in consumption, final sales of real GDP (GDP less the change in private inventories), were adjusted down from 1.2 percent to 0.9 percent, equal to its second quarter gain. Outside of consumption and inventories, little else was effected by the revision. Taking a quick peek at revisions to prices reveals that the PCE price index excluding food and energy was revised down from an annualized rate of 0.8 percent to 0.5 percent in the third quarter, with the majority of the downward revision coming from services prices—which were revised down from 1.1 percent to 0.7 percent.