Keeping you up to date on the latest data releases.
- Real GDP
Real GDP in the third quarter was revised up from an annualized quarterly growth rate of 2.0 percent to 2.5 percent (slightly above expectations), according to the second estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The revision was largely due to upward adjustments to personal consumption expenditures, exports, and state and local government spending. A slight downward revision to private inventories shaved 0.1 percentage point (pp) off this component’s contribution to output growth, partially offsetting the upward revisions. Real personal consumption was revised up from a gain of 2.6 percent to an increase of 2.8 percent, adding an additional 0.2 pp to growth. Export growth was revised up from an increase of 5.0 percent to a 6.3 percent gain, and imports were relatively unrevised at a nearly 17 percent growth rate, a combined contribution of 0.3 pp to output growth. The investment picture remained roughly the same. On the business side, structures investment fell 5.8 percent in the third quarter, compared to its 4-quarter growth rate of −14.0 percent; while equipment and software continued to grow strongly during the quarter—up 16.8 percent (revised up from a 12.0 percent gain). Residential investment was revised up, but that was from a decrease of 29.1 percent to a decrease of 27.5 percent, still more than reversing a tax-credit-induced 25.6 percent gain in the second quarter. Primarily because of the upward adjustments to consumption and exports, real final sales (GDP less change in private inventories) were revised up by 0.6 pp to an increase of 1.2 percent, a slight acceleration over a 0.9 percent increase in the second quarter. While the growth rate in final sales is still relatively soft, at least the recent trend appears to be that demand gained some traction when compared with the second quarter, instead of losing a bit.