Keeping you up to date on the latest data releases.
The headline CPI fell at an annualized rate of 1.6 percent in June, largely on decreasing gasoline prices. On a year-over-year basis the CPI is up 1.1 percent. Excluding food and energy prices (core CPI), the index rose 1.9 percent in June and is trending at annualized growth rate of 1.3 percent over the past three months, above its longer-term (12-month) growth rate of 0.9 percent. Measures underlying inflation produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, which have been trending a bit lower than the core CPI lately, continued to do so in June. The median CPI rose 1.2 percent in June, while the 16 percent trimmed-mean CPI rose just 0.3 percent. The median and trim have risen just 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, since the beginning of the year and are ranging between 0.5 percent and 0.8 percent over the past 12 months. As has frequently been the case, all of the monthly volatility (noise) wasn't captured exclusively by excluding food and energy prices in June. Notably, mens’ and boys’ apparel prices shot up a record (going back to 1947) 31.2 percent in June, a price increase that smacks of a seasonal adjustment problem, given that those prices fell 14.2 percent before seasonal adjustment. Nevertheless, the underlying price-change distribution exhibited some firming relative to May, as 34 percent of the overall index rose at rates between 1 percent and 3 percent, compared to just 19 percent in May and an average share of 15.4 percent over the past three months.