Keeping you up to date on the latest data releases.
- Real GDP
First quarter real GDP was revised down yet again, from an annualized gain of 3.0 percent in the first quarter to 2.7 percent during the third estimate. The lower estimate was largely due to an upward revision to imports and a downward revision to consumption that was partially offset by upward adjustments to exports and inventories. Personal consumption rose 3.0 percent during the first quarter according to the third estimate, 0.6 percentage point below the BEA’s initial guess, but still its largest quarterly gain since 2007:Q1. Business investment weakened slightly during the revision, from a 3.1 percent to a 2.2 percent increase in the first quarter, as both equipment and structures were revised lower. The swing in inventories (from a slight loss in the fourth quarter to accumulation in the first quarter) was revised up by 0.2 percentage points, now adding 1.9 percentage points to growth in the first quarter. Net exports subtracted 0.8 percentage points from growth (in GDP calculation), as imports outpaced export growth in the first quarter. Final sales of real GDP—which subtract out inventories and thus give us a purer read on demand—were revised down from 1.4 percent to 0.8 percent in the first quarter, a little less than half of the fourth quarter’s gain of 1.7 percent. Final sales to domestic purchasers (a read on domestic demand), which rose 1.6 percent in the first quarter, after a 1.4 percent gain in the fourth. Both measures are trending slightly above 1.0 percent over the past four quarters, well below “trend” growth.