Keeping you up to date on the latest data releases.
- Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment increased from an index value of 73.6 to 75.5 in early June. The modest gain was enough to push the series back near its highs seen at the beginning of the recession (78.4 in January 2008). The overall increase came as the current economic conditions component rose from 81.0 to 82.9, and the expectations component edged up from 68.8 to 70.7 in June. Still, the expectations component has been relatively stagnant over the past year, up just 1.5 index points from last June, “signaling that consumers expect a very slow pace of economic growth in the year ahead,” according to the release. Inflation expectations slipped down slightly in June. One-year-ahead average inflation expectations fell by 1.0 percentage point in June to 3.1 percent (the median ticked down from 3.2 percent to 2.8 percent); while longer-run (5- to 10-year-ahead) average expectations slid down from 3.4 percent to 2.8 percent during the month (with the median edging down from 2.9 percent to 2.7 percent). Interestingly, the monthly variance in the longer-run expectations slipped down to its lowest level since April 1999, more than halving its average variance since the recession began.