Keeping you up to date on the latest data releases.
- Real GDP
The second estimate for real GDP in the first quarter came in at 3.0 percent, 0.2 percentage point (pp) below the advance estimate and 0.5 pp lower than the Bloomberg survey’s median expectation of an upward revision to 3.5 percent. The lower estimate reflects downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential fixed investment, as well as an upward revision to imports, which were only partially offset by upward revisions to exports and change in private inventories. Personal consumption expenditures were revised down 0.1 pp to a 3.5 percent increase in the first quarter, contributing 0.1 pp less to real GDP growth. Real imports were revised from 8.9 percent to 10.4 percent during the quarter, slicing 0.2 pp from real GDP growth. The nonresidential investment revision, from 4.0 percent to 3.1 percent, subtracted 0.1 percent from output growth. Real exports were revised up from 5.8 percent to 7.2 percent, adding 0.2 pp to output growth. Private inventories in the advance estimate were shown to have fallen by $31.1 billion in the first quarter, while the second estimate changed this number to $33.9 billion, tacking on an additional 0.1 pp to real GDP growth. Modest adjustments to residential investment and government spending had a very minimal effect on the revision to output growth. Corporate profits were released alongside the GDP report, rising 5.5 percent ($81.4 billion) during the first quarter, the fifth consecutive quarterly increase. On a year-over-year basis, profits are up 31.0 percent, their second consecutive quarter in positive territory after eleven straight quarters of declines.