Keeping you up to date on the latest data releases.
- Real GDP: Third Estimate for Fourth Quarter 2009
Real GDP was revised down from 5.9 percent (annualized rate) to 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter, according the third estimate from the BEA. While the downward adjustment wasn't expected by most analysts (Bloomberg’s forecast range was 5.7 percent to 6.0 percent), it is just 0.1 percentage point below the initial estimate of 5.7 percent for the fourth quarter. Real GDP rose 0.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the fourth quarter of 2009, marking the first year-over-year increase in more than one year. The overall revision from the second to the third estimate was due to minor downward revisions to consumption, investment in structures, and inventories. Changes in private inventories were trimmed slightly, resulting in a 0.1 percentage point decrease in their contribution to output growth, which still stands at almost 4 percent. Consumption was revised down again to 1.6 percent in the third estimate and is now 0.4 percentage point below the advanced estimate for the fourth quarter. The negative adjustment to business fixed investment during the revision came as investment in structures fell further into the red, going from −13.9 percent to −18.1 percent. The equipment and software component actually nudged a little higher (from 18.2 percent to 19.0 percent) in the fourth quarter.