Data Updates

Data Updates

December 2013

  • 12.30.2013
  • Personal Income
  • Nominal personal income increased at a nonannualized rate of 0.2 percent in November and has increased 2.3 percent over the past twelve months. The gain in November follows a 0.4 percent increase in September and a 0.1 percent decrease in October. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less current personal taxes—increased 0.1 percent during the month, which follows an increase of 0.5 percent and a decrease of 0.2 percent in September and October, respectively. After controlling for price changes, real disposable personal income increased 0.1 percent in November, following a 0.2 percent decrease in October and over the past year, is up 0.6 percent.

    Real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5 percent in November, marking the largest monthly gain since February of last year. This follows increases of 0.2 percent and 0.4 percent in September and October, respectively, and over the past year, consumption has increased 2.6 percent. The increase in overall consumption during November was the result of increases in consumption of both goods and services. Goods consumption increased 0.7 percent, which is mostly the result of a 2.2 percent increase in consumption of durable goods. The monthly increase in the consumption of durable goods is the largest since October 2010. Services consumption increased 0.4 percent for the month, following increases of 0.1 percent in each of the previous two months. On a year-over-year basis, goods consumption has increased 4.7 percent and services consumption has increased 1.5 percent. The larger increase in consumption relative to income resulted in a decline in the personal savings rate from 4.5 to 4.2 percent, and the savings rate has declined each of the past two months.

  • 12.30.2013
  • PCE
  • The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 0.3 percent in November, following a 0.3 percent decline in the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE price index has increased 0.9 percent. The price of energy goods and services, a volatile component of the index, decreased 11.8 percent, which is the second consecutive monthly decline. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 1.2 percent in November following increases of 1.1 and 1.0 in September and October, respectively, and on a year-over-year basis, has increased 1.1 percent. The 12-month percent change in the core PCE price index has mostly remained between 1.1 and 1.2 percent since May. The market-based core PCE price index, which also excludes most imputed prices, increased 1.1 percent in November, following an increase of 0.6 percent in October, and has increased 1.1 percent over the past twelve months.
  • 12.30.2013
  • Consumer Sentiment
  • Final numbers show that the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment remained unchanged from the preliminary number of 82.5 posted earlier in December. The Index of Consumer Expectations and Current Economic Conditions remains unrevised at 66.8 and 88.0, respectively.

    In December’s measure of inflation expectations, consumers expect a year-ahead inflation rate of 3.0 percent and a longer (five- to ten-year) rate of 2.7 percent.

  • 12.24.2013
  • Durable Goods
  • New orders for durable goods increased 3.5 percent in November. Over the past year, new orders are up 5.3 percent. New orders for transportation equipment rose 8.4 percent in November. Excluding volatile transportation equipment orders, new orders were up only 1.2 percent following an increase of 0.7 percent in October. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, which is used to evaluate the near-term outlook in equipment and software investment, rose 4.5 percent in November. Shipments of durable goods, which are up 3.4 percent over the past year, were up 1.8 percent in November. Shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, which map directly into GDP, rose 4.5 percent in November after falling 0.7 percent in October. On a year-over-year basis, shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft are up 1.4 percent.
  • 12.20.2013
  • GDP
  • The annualized percent change in real GDP for the third quarter of 2013 was revised up from 3.6 percent to 4.1 percent based on the third estimate. The upward revision to GDP growth primarily reflects revisions to consumption and business fixed investment. Consumption, which was previously estimated to have increased 1.4 percent during the quarter, is now estimated to have increased 2.0 percent and contributed 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth. This revision to consumption was primarily caused by an upward revision to services consumption, which is now estimated to have increased 0.7 percent after being flat in the previous release.

    Business fixed investment increased 4.8 percent in the quarter, compared to a 3.5 percent increase in the second estimate. This upward revision to investment was mostly due to an upward revision to investment in intellectual property, which increased 5.8 percent in the quarter. Business fixed investment contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth, compared with 0.4 percentage points prior to the revision. Residential investment was revised down slightly, from a 13.0 percent increase to an increase of 10.3 percent, contributing 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth. Both exports and imports were revised down slightly as well, and government spending was basically unchanged from the previous estimate.

  • 12.19.2013
  • Existing Home Sales
  • Existing single-family home sales fell 3.8 percent in November and 0.9 percent over the past 12 months to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 4.32 million units sold. Regionally, all areas posted negative growth rates led by an 8.7 percent decline in the West, which is now at the lowest level of sales since November 2010. On an annual basis, existing single-family home sales ranged from an 11.3 percent decline in the West to a 6.0 percent increase in the Northeast. The median price of existing single-family homes was $196,200, a slight decline of 0.7 percent for the month but a 9.4 percent increase since last November. The inventory of homes rose 0.5 percent, representing a 5.2 months’ supply of homes at the current sales pace.
  • 12.18.2013
  • Housing Starts
  • In November, the groundbreaking of new single-family residential homes rose 20.8 percent for the month and is up 26.2 percent over the past 12 months to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 727,000 units. This represents the high level of housing starts since March 2008 and is more than double the trough reached in early 2009. The authorization of single-family home building permits also rose to the highest level since early 2008, up 2.1 percent for the month and 10.5 percent since last November to a seasonally-adjusted rate of 634,000 permits issued.
  • 12.17.2013
  • CPI
  • The CPI was unchanged in November (with an annualized rate of 0.4 percent). Declines in fuel prices were offset by increases in shelter prices and airline fares. Energy prices fell 1.0 percent and are down 2.4 percent over the last 12 months.

    At 0.2 percent (1.9 percent annual rate), the change in the core CPI was 0.1 percent higher than in September and October. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland-based measures of underlying inflation increased at similar rates in November: 0.2 percent (2.2 percent annual rate) for the Median CPI and 0.1 percent (1.2 percent annual rate) for the trimmed-mean CPI.

    The twelve-month change in the median CPI remained at 2.0 percent for the third month in a row. Over the past twelve months through November, the core CPI rose 1.7 percent and the trimmed-mean CPI rose 1.6 percent. Both are similar to what they have been for the prior five months. The twelve-month change in the all-items index rose from 1.0 percent in October to 1.2 percent.

    In November, the most common ranges of annualized price changes of components of the CPI were less than 1 percent (31.0 percent) and 1 percent to 3 percent (27.0 percent) and. Note that the components are weighted by their relative importance in the CPI.

  • 12.17.2013
  • Current Account
  • The US current account deficit narrowed to −$94.8 billion in the third quarter of 2013, a $1.8 billion contraction from the second quarter’s revised −$96.6 billion deficit (−$98.9 billion, previously). The current account deficit has now contracted in five of the past six quarters. The contraction in the third quarter was driven by a 1.1 percent contraction in net unilateral transfers and a 2.2 percent narrowing in the balance of trade in goods, services, and income. A 0.7 percent increase in exports of goods, services, and income and was partially offset by a 0.4 percent gain in imports of goods, services, and income. As a percent of GDP, the current account deficit ticked down to 2.2 percent, which is the smallest percentage since 1998.
  • 12.16.2013
  • Productivity and Costs
  • Based on the second estimate, nonfarm business sector productivity—real output per hour of all persons—was revised up in the third quarter from a 1.9 percent increase to a 3.0 percent increase at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate. This increase is the greatest quarterly improvement since the fourth quarter of 2009 and over the past year, productivity has increased 0.3 percent. The revision to productivity reflects an upward revision to output, which is now estimated to have increased 4.7 percent during the quarter, compared with a prior estimate of 3.7 percent. The increase in hours was unrevised at 1.7 percent. Over the past year, output has increased 2.1 percent, while hours have increased 1.8 percent. Real hourly compensation, which is compensation per hour after controlling for price changes, declined 1.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with a previously estimated decline of 1.3 percent. Unit labor costs, which are measured as hourly compensation per hourly output, declined 1.4 percent for the quarter, following a 2.0 percent increase in the second quarter. Over the past year, unit labor costs have increased 2.1 percent.
  • 12.16.2013
  • Industrial Production
  • Industrial production exceeded expectations with an increase of 1.1 percent in November. This was the greatest gain since November 2012. Manufacturing production rose 0.6 percent in November and production is up 3.7 percent over the past six months. Breaking down the manufacturing sector into durable and nondurable goods, production of durable goods rose by 0.8 percent and nondurables were up by 0.5 percent. Within durable goods, wood products, nonmetallic mineral products, fabricated metal products, furniture and related products, miscellaneous manufacturing, and electrical equipment, appliances, and components all increased by about 1 percent or more in November. Motor vehicle and parts output increased 3.4 percent. Within nondurable manufacturing production, the index for textile and product mills increased by 1.7. The indexes for petroleum and coal products and for chemicals edged up 0.9 percent.

    There were small gains for paper, plastics, and rubber products, however slight losses occurred in the apparel and leather and printing support industries. Mining output increased 1.7 percent in November and the mining capacity utilization rate has increased by 1.1 percentage points to an overall capacity utilization rate of 89.7 percent. Utilities output increased 3.9 percent and the capacity utilization rate for utilities also increased 2 percentage points, for an overall capacity utilization rate of 81 percent. Overall capacity utilization for November rose 0.8 percentage points to 79 percent due to increases in productions.

  • 12.13.2013
  • Producer Price Index
  • The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased at an annualized rate of 0.6 percent in November. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI is up 0.7 percent. Producer prices for finished consumer foods remained unchanged. Energy prices decreased 4.3 percent in November, following a decrease of 17.0 percent in October. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, “core” PPI is up 0.7 percent and core crude prices increased 18.2 percent following seven months of decreases.
  • 12.12.2013
  • Retail Sales
  • Total retail sales increased at a nonannualized rate of 0.7 percent in November, year-over-year sales are up 4.7 percent. Auto sales increased 1.8 percent and over the past 12 months, retail sales excluding autos have increased 0.4 percent. Contributing to the monthly gain in total sales were improvements for non-store retailers (up 2.2 percent), motor vehicle and parts (up 1.8 percent), and building materials (up 1.8 percent). Sectors that saw the largest declines in November were gasoline stations (down −1.1 percent), clothing and accessories (down −0.2 percent), and food and beverages (down −0.1 percent). A less volatile indicator of sales growth, “core” retail sales (which excludes sales of autos, building supplies, and gas stations), increased 0.6 percent in November. On a year-over-year basis, core retail sales are up 4.5 percent.
  • 12.12.2013
  • Import and Export Prices
  • Import prices dropped −0.6 percent in November after falling at the same pace in October. Petroleum prices plummeted −3.5 percent, driving the drop in the overall index. November marks the second month where petroleum prices fell by more than 3.0 percent on a monthly basis. Nonpetroleum prices maintained October’s pace and edged up 0.1 percent. On a year-over-year basis, import prices fell −1.5 percent, marking the third consecutive month of yearly declines. Petroleum prices fell −2.8 percent on a yearly basis, while nonpetroleum prices dropped −1.2 percent. Nonpetroleum prices have now fallen on a yearly basis for nine consecutive months. Overall, November’s trade price report largely extends the weakness seen in October’s report.

    Export prices increased 0.1 percent in November after falling −0.6 percent in October. On a year-over-year basis, export prices fell −1.6 percent, marking four months of consecutive declines.

  • 12.06.2013
  • Consumer Credit
  • In October, outstanding consumer credit increased at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 7.1 percent, beating the revised September increase of 6.4 percent. Revolving credit grew 6.1 percent in October, compared to a 0.3 percent decline in September. Nonrevolving credit, which mainly reflects student and auto loans, increased 7.5 percent for the month, rising $13.9 billion after a revised increase of $16.3 billion in the previous month.
  • 12.06.2013
  • The Employment Situation
  • In November, the unemployment rate fell to 7.0 percent and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 203,000. This notable decline in the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons, down to 10.9 million, largely reflects the return of federal employees who were furloughed in October due to the partial government shutdown. Both the civilian labor force and the employment-to-population-ratio showed improvement, ticking up to 63.0 percent and 58.6 percent, respectively.

    On the establishment side of the report, revisions to September and October’ reports combined for a total of 8,000 more jobs than previously reported. The average monthly payroll employment gain over the past 12 months has been 195,000 and over the past 6 months, sits at 180,000. The strongest employment sector gains in November were seen within transportation and warehousing (up 31,000), healthcare (up 28,000), and manufacturing (up 27,000), which was mostly within durable goods. Professional and business services also trended up with a gain of 35,000, as well as retail trade, up 22,000, where solid gains in general merchandise, hobby, and sporting goods stores composed the bulk of the growth (likely due to the seasonal demand for workers). For all employees, the average workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours, average hourly earnings were up 0.4 cents to $24.15, and average weekly earnings were up $3.80 to $833.18.

  • 12.06.2013
  • PCE Price Index
  • The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index declined at an annualized rate of 0.4 percent in October, following an increase of 1.4 percent in September. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE price index has increased just 0.7 percent. Prices for energy goods and services, which tend to be relatively volatile, declined at an annualized rate of 19.0 percent for the month, putting downward pressure on the PCE price index. Excluding food and energy prices, the core PCE price index increased 0.9 percent in October, which follows monthly increases of 1.4 and 1.1 percent in August and September, respectively. Core PCE prices have increased 1.1 percent over the past twelve months, as the year-over-year changes in both the PCE price index and core PCE price index have been on a steady downward trend since early 2012. The market-based core PCE price index, which also excludes most imputed prices, increased 0.2 percent in October and has increased 1.0 percent over the past year.
  • 12.06.2013
  • Consumer Sentiment
  • Preliminary numbers show that the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment increased to 82.5 in early December, up from 75.1 in November. This increase erased the declines seen over the past three months. The gains seen this month were due to improvements among households with incomes below $75,000. The current economic conditions subindex increased to 97.9 from 88.0 in November. Consumer expectations increased to 72.7 in December, up from a reading of 66.8 in November. The gains for the month were driven by an improved outlook for the economy, including job prospects. The improved outlook for jobs was attributed to consumers holding a more favorable outlook for the overall economy in the next year. Finally, buying attitudes toward household durables increased to the highest level in more than six years, to 155 from 136 in November.

    As for inflation expectations in early December, consumers expect a year-ahead inflation rate of 3.0 percent and a longer-term (five- to ten-year) rate of 2.8 percent.

  • 12.06.2013
  • Personal Income
  • Nominal personal income decreased at a nonannualized rate of 0.1 percent in October, following increases of 0.5 percent in both August and September. Since October of last year, nominal personal income has increased 3.4 percent. Disposable personal income (DPI)— nominal personal income less current personal taxes—decreased 0.2 percent in October, and over the past three months, has averaged increases of 0.3 percent. After controlling for price changes, real DPI decreased at a nonannualized rate of 0.2 percent. This follows increases of 0.5 percent in August and 0.4 percent in September. Over the past year, real disposable personal income has increased 1.8 percent.

    Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.3 percent in October, following increases of 0.2 percent in August and 0.1 percent in September. The three-month trend in consumption growth is at 0.2 percent and has remained mostly between 0.1 and 0.2 percent over the past year. On a year-over-year basis, consumption has increased 2.1 percent. In October, consumption of durable goods increased 0.8 percent and consumption of nondurable goods increased 0.7 percent, driving the gain in overall consumption. Consumption of services increased just 0.1 percent. A look at the year-over-year changes shows that growth in goods consumption has outpaced growth in services consumption over the past twelve months, as goods consumption has increased 4.1 percent and services consumption has increased 2.7 percent. The larger increase in consumption relative to income during October resulted in a 0.4 percentage points decline in the personal savings rate, from 5.2 to 4.8 percent.

  • 12.05.2013
  • GDP
  • The annualized percent change in real GDP for the third quarter of 2013 was revised up from 2.8 percent to 3.6 percent, based on the second estimate. The improvement in GDP growth primarily reflects an upward revision to inventory investment. Also contributing to the positive revision were slight improvements to business fixed investment and government spending, which were partially offset by slight downward revisions to consumption, residential investment, and net exports.

    The contribution of changes in private inventories to GDP growth was revised up from 0.8 percentage points to 1.7 percentage points, accounting for most of the upward revision to the annualized percent change in overall GDP. Business fixed investment is now estimated to have increased 3.5 percent during the third quarter—compared with a prior estimate of 1.6 percent—and is now estimated to have contributed 0.4 percentage points to the increase in GDP. Additionally, the increase in government spending was revised up from 0.2 to 0.4 percent, and the contribution of government spending to GDP growth was 0.1 percentage point.

    Personal consumption expenditures were revised down slightly, increasing 1.4 percent and contributing 1.0 percentage point to GDP growth for the quarter. Residential investment is now estimated to have increased 13 percent, compared with a prior estimate of 14.6 percent. Exports remained essentially unchanged, but an upward revision to imports (from a 1.9 percent increase to a 2.7 percent increase) resulted in an downward revision to net exports. Residential investment and net exports contributed 0.4 percentage points and 0.1 percentage point to the increase in GDP, respectively.

  • 12.05.2013
  • Factory Orders
  • New orders for manufactured goods fell 0.9 percent (nonannualized) in October, following an increase of 1.8 percent in September. Excluding transportation, new orders were unchanged for the month, while new orders of durable goods fell 1.7 percent and nondurable goods fell 0.2 percent. New orders of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders decreased 0.6 percent in October, compared to a 1.2 percent decrease in September. Shipments increased 0.1 percent, led by an increase of 0.4 percent in shipments of durable goods. Unfilled orders and inventories increased 0.4 and 0.1 percent, respectively. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.4, roughly where it has been since late 2009, but still well above the pre-crisis average of 4.3. The inventory-to-shipments ratio was steady at 1.3, roughly where it has been since late 2009.
  • 12.04.2013
  • International Trade
  • In October, the US trade deficit contracted by $2.3 billion to $40.6 billion after increasing by $4.0 billion in September. October’s trade deficit came in slightly above the consensus forecast of $40.0 billion. Both imports and exports were up for the month, with exports climbing 1.8 percent and imports increasing 0.4 percent. October marks the first monthly increase in exports since the second quarter of 2013. On a year-over-year basis, imports jumped 3.6 percent, posting the largest yearly increase since April 2012. Exports advanced 5.5 percent, marking the largest yearly increase since June 2012.
  • 12.04.2013
  • New Home Sales
  • In October, the sale of new single-family homes rose to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 444,000 units sold. This represents a 25.4 percent increase over the newly released September figure of 354,000, and a 21.6 percent increase since October of 2012. Regionally, most areas posted strong monthly and annual improvements with the exception of the West, where new home sales were down 14.2 percent on a year-over-year basis. The median sales price of new single-family home sales was $245,800, which is a decline of 4.5 percent over the month and 0.6 percent since last October. At the current pace sales in October, the monthly supply of new single-family homes is 4.9 months, down 23.4 percent compared to September, but an improvement of 2.1 percent over the past 12 months.
  • 12.02.2013
  • ISM Manufacturing
  • The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased 0.9 percentage points to 57.3 in November, which indicates a general expansion in the manufacturing sector as the index is above the growth threshold of 50. The index has slipped below 50 only twice since July 2009. Three of the five components that constitute the PMI have increased since October. Furthermore, all five components were above the growth threshold of 50. New orders increased 3.0 percentage points to 63.6 percent, production increased 2.0 percentage points to 62.8 percent, employment rose 3.3 percentage points to 56.5 percent from October to November, supplier deliveries decreased 1.5 percentage points to 53.2, percent and inventories fell 2.0 percentage points to 50.5 percent. The ISM Prices Index declined by 3.0 percentage points to 52.5 percent. Prices have decreased by 9.0 percentage points since February 2013’s high of 61.5 percent.
  • 12.02.2013
  • Construction Spending
  • Private construction spending rose to $625.7 billion in October, 0.5 percent below the September estimate of $629.0 billion. October’s results are 6.6 percent higher on a year-over-year basis. Residential construction spending fell 0.6 percent during the course of the month, to $326.9 billion. New multifamily construction spending grew 2.2 percent in October and is up 37.8 percent year-over-year. New single-family construction fell 0.6 percent and is up 17.8 percent since last October. Private nonresidential construction spending was at $298.9 billion, 0.5 percent below the September estimate of $300.2 billion. Eight of the eleven nonresidential construction sectors saw month-to-month increases in spending, with the educational sector posting the largest monthly increase of 6.6 percent. The communication sector saw the largest monthly decline of 8.4 percent.