Data Updates

Data Updates

October 2013

  • 10.30.2013
  • CPI
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2 percent (2.2 percent annually) in September. After falling the past two months, energy prices rose 0.8 percent, their largest increase since June. However, energy prices are down 3.1 percent over the past 12 months.

    At 0.1 percent (1.5 percent annually), the change in the core CPI was smaller than that for the all-items index. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland-based measures of underlying inflation increased at about the same pace in September—0.2 percent (2.1 percent annually) for the median CPI and 0.2 percent (1.7 percent annually) for the trimmed-mean CPI.

    The twelve-month change in the median CPI fell to 2.0 percent after five months at 2.1 percent. Over the twelve months through September, both the core CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI rose 1.7 percent and are similar to what they have been for the previous five months. The twelve-month change in the all-items index fell from 1.5 percent in August to 1.2 percent in September.

    In September, the most common ranges of annualized price changes of components of the CPI were 1 percent to 3 percent (39.3 percent) and 3 percent to 5 percent (25.7 percent). For the second month in a row, over 35 percent of the components in the CPI increased by 3 percent or more. Note that the components are weighted by their relative importance in the CPI.

  • 10.30.2013
  • Producer Price Index
  • The Producer Price Index (PPI), decreased at an annualized rate of 0.60 percent in September. On a year-over-year basis, PPI is up 0.30 percent. Producer prices for finished consumer foods fell 11.59 percent in September, compared to an increase of 7.28 percent in August. Energy prices increased 5.73 percent in September. Year-over?year energy prices are down 2.80 percent. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, “core” PPI was up 0.65 percent in September. At earlier stages of production, core intermediate goods prices increased 1.25 percent and core crude prices decreased 10.85 percent.
  • 10.30.2013
  • Retail Sales
  • Total retail sales decreased at a nonannualized rate of 0.1 percent in September, while year-over-year retail sales are up 3.2 percent. Auto sales decreased 2.17 percent, but over the past 12 months, retail sales excluding autos increased 0.4 percent. Contributing to the monthly gain in total sales were improvements for food service and drinking places (up 0.9 percent), food and beverages (up 0.9 percent), and electronics and appliances (up 0.7 percent). Sectors that saw the largest declines in September were clothing and accessories (down −0.5) and motor vehicles and parts (down −2.2). A less volatile indicator of sales growth, “core” retail sales (which excludes sales of autos, building supplies, and gas stations) increased 0.4 percent in September, following an increase of 0.1 percent in August.
  • 10.29.2013
  • Home Price Indexes
  • In August, the S&P Case-Shiller 10-city and 20-city composite housing price indexes rose 1.3 percent during the month and 12.8 percent over the past 12 months, the highest annual growth rate since February 2006. On both a monthly and annual basis, all cities posted positive growth rates (led by Las Vegas), up 2.9 percent and 29.2 percent, respectively. While Denver and Dallas set new record highs, Detroit remains the only city on the index below its January 2000 level. Overall, both composite indexes are back to their mid-2004 levels.

    The FHFA national housing price index rose 0.3 percent in August after a modest downward revision to July’s figure and 8.5 percent over the past 12 months. This represents the nineteenth consecutive month of growth in the national purchase-only index level. Regionally, the monthly price indexes ranged from a 0.5 percent decline in the South Atlantic to a 1.3 percent increase in the Mountain division. Meanwhile, all census regions posted solid positive annual growth rates, which ranged from a 4.0 percent increase in the Middle Atlantic to 18.2 percent in the Pacific. Overall, the national index is back to early 2005 levels.

  • 10.28.2013
  • Industrial Production
  • Industrial production rose by 0.6 percent in September, following a 0.4 percent increase in August. Overall industrial production rose at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the third quarter. Manufacturing output experienced an uptick of 0.1 percent in September, following a 0.5 percent increase in August, while the three-month annualized growth rate decreased from 2 percent in August to 1.1 percent in September.

    Breaking down the manufacturing sector into durable and nondurable goods, durable goods rose by 0.5 percent and nondurable goods declined by 0.3 percent. Within durable goods furniture, computer and electronic products, and nonmetallic mineral production fell by 0.7 percent, 0.5 percent, and 0.3 percent, respectively. Motor vehicle and parts production increased by 2 percent for September. Within nondurable goods apparel and leather, plastics and rubber, and petroleum and coal products rose in output by 1.5 percent, 0.7 percent, and 0.5 percent, respectively. Mining output rose 0.2 percent after having increased by 0.6 percent in August. Mining production is 6.6 percent higher than it was in September 2012. After experiencing five consecutive months of declining production, utilities production rose by 4.4 percent. September was the first month since February that both mining and utility production increased during the same month. Overall capacity utilization increased by 0.4 percentage points, to 78.3 percent. This rate is 1.9 percentage points below its historic average.

  • 10.25.2013
  • Consumer Sentiment
  • Final numbers show that the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 73.2 from the preliminary number, 75.2, posted earlier in October. The consumer expectations and current economic conditions indexes contributed to the intramonth decrease, with revisions of 62.5 from 63.9 and 89.9 from 92.8, respectively. October’s final reading is the lowest reading in nine months.

    As for inflation expectation revisions, consumers now expect a year-ahead inflation rate of 3.0 percent down from 3.3 percent in September. And a longer-term (five- to ten-year) rate of 2.8 percent, down from 3.0 percent in September.

  • 10.25.2013
  • Durable Goods
  • New orders for durable goods rose 3.7 percent in September. Over the past year, new orders are up 4.6 percent. New orders for transportation equipment increased 12.3 percent, following a decline of 1.7 percent in August. New orders excluding transportation equipment were down 0.1 percent, following a 0.4 percent drop in August. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, which is used to evaluate the near-term outlook in equipment and software investment, fell 1.1 percent in September. Shipments of durable goods, which are up 3.0 percent over the past year, were up 0.2 percent in September. Shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, which map directly into GDP, fell 0.2 percent in September. This decrease followed an increase of 1.1 percent in August. On a year-over-year basis, shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft are up 1.4 percent.
  • 10.24.2013
  • International Trade
  • In August, the US trade deficit expanded slightly, by $0.2 billion to a level of $38.8 billion after expanding $4.1 billion July. The widening was driven by a $0.1 billion expansion in imports and unchanged exports. On a year-over-year basis, imports increased 0.9 percent after posting 0.5 percent yearly gains in July. Exports expanded 3.9 percent on a yearly basis and increased 3.2 percent in June. Import activity did not extend last month’s strength, coming in slightly softer. Export activity in August was less tepid than previous months and shows strength relative to the same period last year.
  • 10.23.2013
  • Import and Export Prices
  • Import prices increased 0.2 percent after rising at the same pace in August, which was unchanged prior to revisions. Petroleum prices, up 0.8 percent, drove the change in the overall index while nonpetroleum prices remained unchanged. On a year-over-year basis, import prices fell −1.0 percent, marking the second month of yearly declines. At −0.4 percent, petroleum prices fell on a year-over-year basis for the first time since May of this year. Nonpetroleum prices dropped −1.0 percent in September, the seventh consecutive month of yearly declines.

    Export prices ticked up 0.3 percent from August to September after posting monthly declines the past six months. On a year-over-year basis, export prices fell −1.6 percent after falling −1.1 percent in August.

  • 10.22.2013
  • Construction Spending
  • Private construction spending rose to $640.5 billion in August, 0.7 percent higher than the upwardly revised July estimate of $636.1 billion. August’s results are 11.5 percent higher on a year-over-year basis. Residential construction spending rose 1.2 percent over the month, to $340.2 billion. New multi-family construction spending grew 3.2 percent in August and is up 37.5 percent year-over-year. New single-family construction rose 1.6 percent and is up 28.2 percent since last August. Private nonresidential construction spending was at $300.3 billion, 0.1 percent above the upwardly revised July estimate of $299.9 billion. Five of the eleven nonresidential construction sectors saw month-to-month increases in spending, with the amusement and recreation sector posting the largest monthly gain of 5.4 percent. The educational sector saw the largest monthly decline of 3.7 percent.
  • 10.22.2013
  • Existing Home Sales
  • Existing single-family home sales fell 1.5 percent in September, but are up 10.9 percent annually to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 4.68 million units sold. This monthly decline comes after initial estimates of August’s figures reported the highest level of sales in nearly four years. Regionally, existing home sales ranged from a 4.9 percent decline in the Midwest to a 0.9 percent increase in the West. On a year-over-year basis, all regions posted strong positive growth rates. The median price of home sales fell 4.9 percent for the month to $199,300, but remains up 11.4 percent over the past 12 months. Meanwhile, the inventory of homes available for sale stood at 1.96 million units, representing a five month supply at the current sales pace.
  • 10.22.2013
  • The Employment Situation
  • In September, payroll employment increased by 148,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 7.2 percent. On the household side of the report, there was a slight uptick in the total civilian labor force and the total number of persons employed, which was offset by a decline in the total civilian noninstitutional population. Meanwhile, both the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio were unchanged at 63.2 percent and 58.6 percent, respectively.

    On the establishment side of the report, a downward revision of 15,000 jobs to July’s estimate combined with an upward revision of 24,000 jobs to August’s figure adds a total of 9,000 more jobs than previously reported. Over the past three months, payroll gains have improved by an average of roughly 143,000 each month and 185,000 over the past 12 months. Sectors that made notable gains were construction (up 20,000), wholesale (up 16,100), and transportation and warehousing (up 23,400). The sharpest declines came from leisure and hospitality, down 13,000, and nondurable goods, down 7,000. The average weekly hours worked remained 34.5 hours, while the both average hourly and weekly earnings ticked up to $24.09 and $831.11, respectively.

  • 10.11.2013
  • Consumer Sentiment
  • Preliminary numbers show that The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dipped to 75.2 in early October (from 77.5 in September)—the lowest reading since August 2012. Thirty-five percent of all consumers mentioned an unfavorable reference to the government’s economic policies, an all-time record. Survey respondents viewed current economic conditions better than last month, up slightly to 92.8. This increase was due to more households reporting income gains. On the other hand, consumer expectations decreased, from 67.8 to 63.9. Finally, buying attitudes toward household durables fell from 143 to 139 in September due to fewer discounts on prices and interest rates, yet vehicle and home-buying improved.

    As for inflation expectations in early October, consumers expect a year-ahead inflation rate of 2.9 percent and a longer-term (five- to ten-year) rate of 2.8 percent.

  • 10.07.2013
  • Consumer Credit
  • In August, outstanding consumer credit increased at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 5.4 percent, outpacing July’s increase of 4.1 percent. Revolving credit growth fell −1.2 percent in August, compared to a −2.6 percent decline in July. Nonrevolving credit, which mainly reflects student and auto loans, increased 8.0 percent in August, rising $14.5 billion after an increase of $12.3 billion in the previous month.
  • 10.01.2013
  • ISM Manufacturing
  • The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased 0.5 percentage points to 56.2 in September, which indicates a general expansion in the manufacturing sector as the index is above the growth threshold of 50. The index has slipped below 50 only twice since July 2009. Four of the five components that constitute the PMI have increased since August. Furthermore, four out of the five components were above the growth threshold of 50—inventories being the exception at 50.0 percentage points—which is an increase of 2.5 from the previous month. New orders declined 2.7 percentage points to 60.5, production increased 0.2 percentage points to 62.6 percent, supplier deliveries increased 0.3 percentage points to 52.6 percent, and employment increased 2.1 percentage points to 55.4 from August to September. The ISM Prices Index increased by 2.5 percentage points to 56.5 percent. Prices have decreased by 5.0 percentage points since February 2013’s high of 61.5 percent.