Data Updates

Data Updates

Keeping you up to date on the latest data releases.

February 2012

  • 02.03.2012
  • Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
  • The balance sheet increased nearly $5 billion over the course of January, which can roughly be attributed to an increase in the amount of central bank dollar liquidity swaps drawn. The outstanding draws increased from $99.8 billion to $104.5 billion in January, with nearly $77 billion of that amount taken in 3-month swaps by the European Central Bank. Following a request for assets from the Maiden Lane II portfolio, the New York Fed auctioned over $7 billion worth of securities in early January, with the winning bid going to Credit Suisse Securities. The tentative schedule of outright Treasury operations for the month of February was released at the end of the month, with an announced schedule of $45 billion of purchases and $43 billion of sales. Finally, it was announced that the Fed earned $83.6 billion in 2011 in interest income on securities acquired through open market operations (U.S. Treasury securities, agency mortgage-backed securities and agency debt). Another $2.3 billion was earned as realized gains on the sale of U.S. Treasury securities.
  • 02.03.2012
  • Employment Report
  • Nonfarm payrolls jumped up by 243,000 in January, following revisions to 2011 data that left the level of employment as of December 266,000 jobs higher than we previously thought. Importantly, the near term trajectory appears to be looking up. Average payroll growth over the past three months was 201,000, compared to an average gain of 152,000 in 2011. Private payroll growth was a little stronger than the overall gain in January, rising 257,000 (its strongest monthly gain since last April), as government sector employment continued to trend down (decreasing 14,000). Nearly every major private sector industry posted employment gains that either met or exceeded their near-term trends in January. The two exceptions were information sector payrolls (down 13,000) and employment in financial activities (down 5,000). Goods-producing employment posted its highest monthly gain since January 2006, rising 81,000 during the month, and was much improved relative to its 2011 average monthly gain of 33,000. Durable goods manufacturing payrolls rose by 50,000 in January, accounting for much of the overall gain in goods-producing payrolls.

    On the service side, notable increases were seen in professional and business services employment (up 70,000—a 10 month high), and transportation and warehousing, which rose by 13,000 in January compared to an average gain of just 7,000 in 2011. Other indicators on the establishment side were mixed. Hours and earnings were little changed. However, the employment diffusion index (which measures the breadth of the employment gains) improved from 62.4 percent to 64.1 percent of firms adding to payrolls. And this improvement appears to be driven by a marked jump up in the manufacturing diffusion index, which rose from 64.2 percent to 69.1 percent in January—its highest level since January 2011.

    Any signal of labor market improvement coming from the household side of the report should be weighed against a dramatic adjustment in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s measurement of the annual population. The civilian noninstitutional population was revised up by 1.5 million people as of December 2011, with most of these individuals “entering” into existence outside the labor force. This led to a 0.3 percentage point drop in the labor force participation rate to 63.7 percent in January. On the other hand, the number of employed persons jumped by 847,000 in January, and the combination of various factors led to a decrease in the unemployment rate from 8.5 percent to 8.3 percent. It is important to note that despite the unusually large increase in the population and the strong January gain in employment, the employment-to-population ratio remained unchanged at 58.5 percent.

  • 02.02.2012
  • Productivity and Costs
  • Nonfarm business sector productivity—real output per hour of all persons—grew at an annualized rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter, following a downwardly revised third-quarter estimate of 1.9 percent growth. From the fourth quarter of 2010, productivity grew 0.5 percent. Output growth accelerated in the fourth quarter to 3.6 percent, outpacing its 2.8 percent gain in the third quarter. These output gains were offset in the productivity measure by a sizable jump in hours worked, which increased by 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter, its highest rate of growth since the second quarter of 2010. Hourly compensation posted an increase for the first time since the first quarter of 2011, growing 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter. After adjusting for price changes, real hourly compensation was also back in positive territory, increasing by 1.0 percent. The decrease in productivity and increase in hourly compensation pushed unit labor costs up 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter. On a year-over-year basis, unit labor costs increased 1.3 percent.
  • 02.01.2012
  • ISM Manufacturing
  • The ISM’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in right around consensus expectations, increasing from 53.1 to 54.1 in January. The inventories component grew 4.0 points to an index level of 49.5, which is still slightly below its growth threshold of 50. New orders also added 2.8 points, increasing to 57.6, and the supplier deliveries index rose from 51.5 in December to 53.6 in January. These gains were partially offset by a slight 0.5 point decline in the employment index, which fell from 54.8 to 54.3, and by a larger drop in the production component. Production decreased by 3.2 points to an index level of 55.7. The prices index (which is not seasonally adjusted and does not enter into the overall PMI) surged in January, increasing from 47.5 to 55.5, climbing above 50 for the first time since September. This month’s readings reflect the U.S. Department of Commerce’s recently completed annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used to calculate the indexes.
  • 02.01.2012
  • Construction Spending
  • After an upward revision to October and a slight downward revision to November, private construction spending improved 28.5 percent (annualized rate) in December. Nonresidential spending increased by 3 percent, while residential spending increased nearly 1 percent over December. Throughout 2011, private construction increased 8.3 percent. Nonresidential spending is up 11.4 percent from this time last year even with the slight slowdown in November. Manufacturing and communication pushed the increase while automotive, amusement, and lodging continued their four-month decline. On the residential side, multi-family construction has expanded by 18.8 percent, outperforming single-family home construction (3.66 percent) over the past year. Home improvement is starting to see a flat-to-upward trend: December came in at $114.1 billion, which is a 4.4 percent increase over a year ago.