Data Updates

Keeping you up to date on the latest data releases.

02.04.2010
Factory Orders
New orders for manufactured goods outpaced expectations in December, rising 1.0 percent, after a 1.0 percent increase in November. Much of the unexpected strength came from an upward revision to durable goods orders, revised up from a 0.3 percent increase to 1.0 percent in December. The 12-month growth rate in new orders has pared its losses since reaching a cyclical low of −23.4 percent reached in April, and now stands at 3.6 percent (its first positive reading since September 2008). Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft jumped up 2.2 percent in December, after surging 3.2 percent in November, though is still down 1.0 percent on a year-over-year basis. Shipments increased 1.9 percent during the month, posting its fourth consecutive gain, while inventories ticked down a slight 0.1 percent after a 0.2 percent gain in November.

02.04.2010
Productivity and Costs
Nonfarm business sector productivity continued to surge in the fourth quarter of 2009, increasing at an annualized rate of 6.2 percent, its third consecutive quarterly increase in excess of 6.0 percent, pushing its four-quarter growth rate up to 5.1 percent (its highest level since 2002:Q1). The rapid increase in productivity came as real output surged ahead 7.2 percent in the fourth quarter that was slightly tempered by an actual increase in hours worked (up 1.0 percent). That marks the first increase in hours worked since the second quarter of 2007. However, hours are still down 5.1 percent on a year-over-year basis. Compensation per hour rose a slight 1.5 percent during the quarter, compared to gains of 5.6 percent and 6.8 percent over the past two quarter. Though after adjusting for price effects, “real” compensation per hour slipped down 1.9 percent, reversing a 1.8 percent “real” gain in the third quarter. The combination of increased output and decreased compensation pulled unit labor costs down to −4.4 percent, following a 1.5 percent decrease last quarter. On a year-over-year basis, the series—which some use as a proxy for incipient inflation—is down 2.8 percent, its lowest growth rate since 2002:Q1.

02.01.2010
Personal Income
Nominal personal income rose 0.4 percent (nonannualized) in December, following an upwardly-revised 0.5 percent gain in November. The 12-month growth rate in personal income is up 0.5 percent, its first positive growth rate in a year. Disposable personal income posted its fifth consecutive monthly gain, increasing 0.4 percent in December. Personal savings as a percentage of disposable income ticked up from 4.5 percent in November to 4.8 percent in December, averaging 4.6 percent for all of 2009, a stark contrast from a 1.7 percent savings rate just two years ago. Nominal personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2 percent in December, after a relatively strong 0.7 percent gain in November (that was revised up by 0.2 percentage points). After adjusting for price effects, “real” personal consumption ticked up a slight 0.1 percent in December, and is now up 1.8 percent on a year-over-year basis. Gains in both durable goods and services consumption more than offset a 0.8 percent decrease in nondurables, its first decrease in five months.

02.01.2010
PCE
The PCE price index increased at an annualized rate of 1.2 percent in December, down from a 3.1 percent increase in November. On a year-over-year basis, PCE prices are up 2.1 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, “core” PCE rose a slight 0.9 percent during the month, after a virtually flat November. The 12-month growth rate in core PCE is up 1.5 percent, though over the past 3-months it has been trending slightly lower (1.2 percent).

02.01.2010
ISM Manufacturing
The ISM’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) continued to improve in January, rising 3.5 index points to 58.4 (its highest level since August 2004) . The diffusion index has now been above its growth threshold of 50 for six consecutive months. All components of the overall index improved during the month, led by a strong (6.5 point) increase in the production index. Interestingly, the inventories index, at a 46.5, is the only component of the manufacturing PMI that remains below 50.

02.01.2010
Construction Spending
Total construction spending dropped 1.2 percent in December and is down 9.9 percent from December 2008. Nearly all months in 2009 saw declines, putting the current seasonally-adjusted annual rate of spending at its lowest level since August 2003. Both private and public construction had equal drops of 1.2 percent in December, but the largest driver behind the overall retreat was a sizeable 2.8 percent drawback in private residential construction. Although still very depressed, the year-over-year growth rate in private residential construction managed to climb to −10.9 percent, its best rate in over three years, since October 2006. Private nonresidential construction actually increased slightly, by 0.2 percent.