- A Brief History of Central Banks
by Michael Bordo - Coordination Failures in the Labor Market
by Guillaume Rocheteau and Murat Tasci - Regional Productivity Growth and
Plant-Level Dynamics
by Yoonsoo Lee - Are Consumers Cashing Out?
by Paul W. Bauer and Daniel Littman - Regional Variation in Job Creation and Destruction
by Paul W. Bauer and Yoonsoo Lee - Prepayment Penalties on Subprime Mortgages
by O. Emre Ergungor - Peak Oil
by Joseph G. Haubrich and Brent Meyer - The Growth of Cities in the Fourth District
by Tim Dunne - What’s Really Going on in Housing Markets?
by Morris A. Davis, François Ortalo-Magné, and Peter Rupert - Price Stability: Issues and Challenges
by Sandra Pianalto - Global Risks to U.S. Monetary Policy
by Owen F. Humpage - The Minimum Wage and the Labor Market
by Guillaume Rocheteau and Murat Tasci - How Much U.S. Technological Innovation Begins in Universities?
by Jinyoung Kim and Gerald Marschke - U.S. Ethnic Scientists and Entrepreneurs
by William R. Kerr - Mirror, Mirror, Who’s the Best
Forecaster of Them All?
by Michael F. Bryan and Linsey Molloy - Credit Spreads and Subordinated Debt
by Joseph G. Haubrich and James B. Thomson - A Closer Look at Cleveland's Latest Poverty Ranking
by Mark Schweitzer and Brian Rudick - Human Capital and the Challenge of Persistent Poverty in Appalachia
by James P. Ziliak - Home Price Derivatives
by O. Emre Ergungor - Private Money in our Past, Present, and Future
by Bruce Champ
A Brief History of Central Banks top
by Michael D. Bordo
12.07
One of the world’s foremost economic historians explains the forces behind the development of modern central banks, providing insight into their role in the financial system and the economy.
Coordination Failures in the Labor Market top
by Guillaume Rocheteau and Murat Tasci
11.07
Can two countries, or two different states, with similar technologies, resources, and policies exhibit differences in labor market performance? In contrast to a commonly held view, the answer is yes under some conditions that we review in this Commentary. If these conditions are satisfied, the unemployment rate and the production of an economy can fluctuate even in the absence of shocks. Moreover, government intervention can be useful provided that it coordinates the economy on the preferred outcome.
Regional Productivity Growth and Plant-Level Dynamics top
by Yoonsoo Lee
10.15.07
The mix of companies in the economy is always changing. The more-productive ones expand, and the less-productive ones are driven out of the market, freeing resources such as labor and capital for new ventures. This reallocation contributes more to aggregate productivity growth than the productivity gains achieved by individual businesses. The efficiency with which the process takes place is a key factor affecting rates of productivity growth in different regions and explaining why they differ.
Are Consumers Cashing Out? top
by Paul W. Bauer and Daniel Littman
10.01.07
The information age has led to many new forms of payment, including credit cards, debit cards, and online banking. In many ways, these new mechanisms seem preferable to cash. While the disappearance of cash is a very long way off, it seems people are starting to use it less.
Regional Variation in Job Creation and Destruction top
by Paul W. Bauer and Yoonsoo Lee
09.15.07
As companies and consumers adapt to a changing marketplace, jobs are eliminated and new ones are created. Rates at which this happens vary across states and reflect the flexibility of the labor market. More flexible markets are associated with faster growth.
Prepayment Penalties on Subprime Mortgages top
by O. Emre Ergungor
09.01.07
As a result of the subprime mortgage mess, prepayment penalties are under close scrutiny. While these, like other kinds of contract terms, can be abused, there are good reasons for why they exist. In principle, they serve to extend credit to a greater number of borrowers.
Peak Oil top
by Joseph G. Haubrich and Brent Meyer
08.15.07
When will the world’s production of oil peak, and what will the economic consequences be? Calculating when turns out not to be so straightforward as it seems, but predicting the likely economic consequences is—and they’re not as bleak as many fear.
The Growth of Cities in the Fourth District top
by Tim Dunne
08.01.07
Many Fourth District cities have experienced relatively weak population growth over the past half century. One possible reason some cities have recently grown more is because they have better educated workforces. Recent research suggests that the educational attainment of residents is critical to population growth, particularly for cities in the Northeast and Midwest.
What’s Really Going on in Housing Markets? top
by Morris A. Davis, François Ortalo-Magné, and Peter Rupert
July 2007
Most of the public concern about housing markets is based on claims that house prices have increased at historically anomalous rates and that house prices have outpaced incomes. The first claim is based on inaccurate historical data. The second is linked to relaxed credit constraints. House prices are likely to fall further, but not for the reasons usually proposed.
Price Stability: Issues and Challenges top
Sandra Pianalto
June 2007
Central banks have done a very impressive job of achieving low and stable rates of inflation in recent years. But despite past successes, they must always be ready to deal with new challenges that might arise. Sandra Pianalto, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, discusses some of those challenges and how central banks might best prepare for them (from a speech she gave at a conference sponsored by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Cleveland Fed in Frankfurt, Germany, on June 6, 2007).
Global Risks to U.S. Monetary Policy top
by Owen F. Humpage
May 15, 2007
We recently invited four international economists to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland to discuss global developments and to help us identify and understand the key international risks that these developments present for U.S. monetary policy. This Commentary develops a key macroeconomic concern that emerged from our conversations.
The Minimum Wage and the Labor Market top
by Guillaume Rocheteau and Murat Tasci
May 1, 2007
New models of employment show that there are some cases in which a minimum wage can have positive effects on employment and social welfare. The effects depend ultimately on the prevailing market wage and the frictions in the market. Evidence to date does not support the view that raising the minimum wage will lead to positive employment effects.
How Much U.S. Technological Innovation Begins in Universities? top
by Jinyoung Kim and Gerald Marschke
April 15, 2007
Technological progress has been the key to improved living standards, but how and where do new ideas get their start? The answer might give us some insight into how we can support greater innovation. Some suggest universities have been an important source of innovative technology. A look at the people involved in the development of patented technologies can give an idea of how much innovation originates in universities.
U.S. Ethnic Scientists and Entrepreneurs top
by William R. Kerr
April 1, 2007
Immigrants are exceptionally important for U.S. technology development, accounting for almost half of the country’s Ph.D. workforce in science and engineering. Most notably, the contribution of Chinese and Indian scientists and entrepreneurs in U.S. high-technology sectors increased dramatically in the 1990s. These ethnic scientific communities in the United States also help transfer new technologies back to their home countries.
Mirror, Mirror, Who’s the Best Forecaster of Them All?top
by Michael F. Bryan and Linsey Molloy
March 15, 2007
Say you need an accurate forecast of future GDP or inflation. What’s your best bet—the economist who was hot last year or the forecaster in the middle? The record indicates it’s tough to consistently beat the median prediction.
Credit Spreads and Subordinated Debttop
by Joseph G. Haubrich and James B. Thomson
March 1, 2007
Stock and bond prices contain all sorts of information about investors’ beliefs and expectations. For example, the interest rate on bank debt not insured by the FDIC has information about the health of the banks issuing the debt. Unfortunately, difficulties in extracting information from these subordinated debt prices reduces the information’ usefulness to regulators and policymakers.
A Closer Look at Cleveland's Latest Poverty Rankingtop
by Mark Schweitzer and Brian Rudick
February 15, 2007
News that Cleveland’s poverty rate is the worst in the nation--and rising--has elevated the community’s concern about conditions in the city. But a closer look at the way poverty rates are calculated suggests that all the possible causes of Cleveland’s ranking have not been fully understood.
Human Capital and the Challenge of Persistent Poverty in Appalachiatop
by James P. Ziliak
February 1, 2007
Recent research suggests that investments in education may provide the key to reducing persistent poverty in regions such as Appalachia. A look at some trends in poverty and educational attainment in Appalachia over the past two decades confi rms that the two are strongly related.
Home Price Derivativestop
by O. Emre Ergungor
January 15, 2007
Until recently, homeowners had no way to protect the value of their homes against losses that could result from housing market downturns. With the derivatives contracts introduced by the CME last year, homeowners now have some means of protection, and new and better products are more likely to follow from them.
Private Money in our Past, Present, and Future top
by Bruce Champ
January 1, 2007
The government isn’t the only entity allowed to issue money. Private citizens and businesses can too, and throughout U.S. history, they often have. But private money—as such money is called—isn’t issued much these days. What lessons have our experiences with private money taught us, and what do they imply for our money today and in the future?
2006 2007 | top