Working Paper 8304 top
Forecasting the Money Supply in Time Series Models
by Michael L. Bagshaw and William T. Gavin
A demonstration of time series techniques used to forecast quarterly money supply levels. The results indicate that a bivariate model, including an interest rate and M1 predicts M1 better than the univariate model using M1 only, and as well as a 5-variable model which adds prices, output, and credit.
PDF file 435K
Working Paper 8303 top
Extension of Granger Causality in Multivariate Time Series Models
by Michael L. Bagshaw
This paper proposes an extension of Granger causality when more than two variables are used in a multivariate time series model, and it is necessary to consider more than one-period-ahead forecasts.
PDF file 301K
Working Paper 8302 top
Holding Company Organizational Form and Efficiency
by Gary Whalen
An exploration of the impact of multibank holding company organizational centralization on subsidiary bank efficiency, using survey data on holding company structure and a profit-function approach.
PDF file 330K
Working Paper 8301 top
Non-Nested Specification Tests and the Intermediate Target for Monetary Policy
by Mitsuru Toida and William T. Gavin
An examination of a procedure for comparing non-nested models to the problem of choosing an intermediate target for monetary policy. Six models of economic activity, based on six different monetary aggregates, are compared.
PDF file 398K
1982 1983 1984
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