Timothy Bianco |

Research Assistant

Timothy Bianco is a research assistant in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. His research interests are financial markets, monetary theory, and econometrics.

Mr. Bianco has a master’s degree in economics and a bachelor’s degree in finance and economics from Bowling Green State University.

Fed Publications

Title	Date	Publication	Author(s)	Type
An Update on the High-Yield Corporate Bond Spread and Economic Activity	December, 2009		Timothy Bianco; Mehmet Pasaogullari;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: The financial crisis has brought into focus the importance of financial markets to a properly functioning economy. One important financial market is the corporate bond market. A look at current conditions in it can shed some light on ongoing financial market stabilization.
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Inflation and Inflation Expectations	November, 2009		Timothy Bianco; Andrea Pescatori;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: Inflation expectations play a crucial role in monetary policy making. Not only do they tell policymakers something about the real expected cost of borrowing and hence the viability of investment plans, they also help policymakers gauge the public?s perception of the central bank’s commitment to maintaining a low and stable rate of inflation. Especially in the current policy environment, where the Fed has been forced by events to take unconventional actions, it is more important than ever to make sure that long-run inflation expectations are well anchored and that the policy message is well understood by the public.
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The High-Yield Corporate Bond Spread and Economic Activity	November, 2009		Timothy Bianco; Mehmet Pasaogullari;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: Measures of the external finance premium—the difference between the cost of external funds and the opportunity cost of internal funds—may contain valuable information about future economic activity. The high-yield corporate bond spread is probably a good measure of this premium. There is a theoretical underpinning for this connection, and empirically, the high-yield spread seems a good predictor of future economic activity. A simple empirical model of GDP and the high-yield spread predicts that real GDP will grow 2.8 percent in 2010.
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Bank Lending, Capital, Booms, and Busts	August, 2009		Timothy Bianco; Joseph G Haubrich;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: The current crisis has brought a lot of attention to the sometimes obscure role that bank capital plays in lending levels. One concern is that bank capital, which is intended to serve as a buffer against losses, tends instead to accentuate booms and busts. We check for a procyclical pattern in a variety of measures of capital.
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Implementing Long-Term Security Purchases	July, 2009		Timothy Bianco; John Lindner; Andrea Pescatori;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: During slowdowns in economic activity and periods of inflation, the optimal response is to lower the real rate. Traditionally, the Federal Reserve achieved this by reducing the target fed funds rate. In general (but with notable exceptions), this reduction has an effect also on yields of longer maturity, which can be thought of as a combination of current and future expected short-term rates, thus stimulating the economy. However, when short-term rates are close to zero the traditional tool is no longer feasible.
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Consumer Credit Markets	July, 2009		Timothy Bianco; Ozgur Emre Ergungor;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: Signs so far suggest that Fed programs designed to revive consumer credit markets are having a positive impact. The market for consumer asset-backed securities (ABS), which effectively shut down in September 2008, has returned to pre-crisis levels after the Fed lent $25 billion to investors against their ABS portfolios. With the Fed’s purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and Treasury bonds, Treasury yields as well as the spread between Fannie Mae MBS and Treasury securities have declined in recent months.
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Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland: http://www.clevelandfed.org

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Timothy Bianco |