News from the Fed

  • Cleveland Fed Estimates of Expected Inflation
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland reports that its latest estimate of 10-year expected inflation is 1.89 percent. In other words, the public currently expects the inflation rate to be less than 2 percent on average over the next decade. Read more
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  • Median CPI up 0.1% in July
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland reports the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% (1.5% annualized rate) in July. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also increased 0.1% (1.6% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics? (BLS) monthly CPI report.  (PDF)
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  • Connections between wages, prices, and economic activity a "tangled web," say Cleveland Fed researchers
  • The slow growth of wages during the economic recovery has rekindled interest in the connections between wages, prices, and economic activity. Read more
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  • Peer-to-peer lending is poised for continued growth, say Cleveland Fed researchers
  • Peer-to-peer lending has been growing rapidly and is poised for continued growth, say Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland researchers Yuliya Demyanyk and Daniel Kolliner. Read more
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  • Inflation Expectations
  • Inflation Nowcasting
  • Median CPI
  • Credit Easing
  • CFSI

Estimates of Inflation Expectations

Estimates of inflation expectations, the real interest rate, and the inflation risk premium. 

Median Consumer Price Index

Inflation Nowcasting

Forecasts of today's inflation rates in the CPI and the PCE price index. 

 

  Quarterly annualized percent change  
Nowcast quarter CPI Core CPI PCE Core PCE Updated
2014:Q31.651.71.471.4308/19/2014

Median Consumer Price Index

A more accurate measure of the underlying inflation trend. 

Median Consumer Price Index

Credit Easing Policy Tools

Compare the amounts of different assets on the Federal Reserve balance sheet, from T-bills to mortgage-backed securities. 

Median Consumer Price Index

Cleveland Financial Stress Index
 
08/18: -0.444

0.07 decrease
over the past seven days   

Chart.

Latest Economic Research

  • On the Relationships between Wages, Prices, and Economic Activity 
  • and  
  • We take a closer look at the connections between wages, prices, and economic activity. We find that causal relationships between wages and prices are difficult to identify, and the ability of wages to help predict future inflation is limited. Wages appear to be useful in assessing the current state of labor markets, but they are not necessarily sufficient for thinking about where the economy and inflation are going. Read more  (PDF)  
  • Peer-to-Peer Lending Is Poised to Grow 
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  • Peer-to-peer lending—a type of lending which matches individual borrowers with investors—is a recent innovation. But because it fills at least two gaps left by traditional lending sources, the peer-to-peer-lending market is likely to continue growing for some time. Read more  
  • Bitcoin versus the Dollar 
  • and Ashley Orr 
  • You can’t hold a bitcoin in your hand, but you can spend one. Bitcoins are digital representations of value, a fiat currency based on cryptography. It’s perhaps too early to assess the future of bitcoin, but in terms of number of transactions, total value, and price stability, it is not currently a major competitor of the US dollar. Read more  
  • State Unemployment Insurance Policy Responses during the Great Recession 
  • , and Brad Kaplita 
  • During the Great Recession, state unemployment insurance systems faced unequal burdens depending on how well their accounts within the federal Unemployment Trust Fund (UTF) were funded and how severely they were hit by the recession. This article describes the different ways that states responded to the effects of the recession on their unemployment insurance systems because of these factors. Read more  

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