Working Paper 8509 top
Total Factor Productivity and Electric Utilities Regulation
by Philip Israilevich
An examination of the components of total factor productivity, including its measurement and the usefulness of TFP indicators to regulators.
PDF file 460K
Working Paper 8508 top
The Ohio Economy: Using Time Series Characteristics in Forecasting
by James G. Hoehn and James J. Balazsy, Jr.
The premise of this study is that the regional economist can better understand the Ohio economy by studying the properties of important Ohio time series that can be identified and quantified through simple regression methods.
PDF file 803K
Working Paper 8507 top
Forecasting and Seasonal Adjustment
by Michael L. Bagshaw
An examination of whether one should seasonally adjust data before developing multivariate time series models to provide forecasts.
PDF file 511K
Working Paper 8506 top
Stochastic Interest Rates in the Aggregate Life Cycle/Permanent Income Cum Rational Expectations Model
by Kim J. Kowalewski
An estimation of the life cycle/permanent income model with rational expectations that allows for uncertain future interest rates. Results provide ample evidence to reject this form of model during the postwar period.
PDF file 647K
Working Paper 8505 top
Dynamics of Fixprice Model
by Eric A. Kades
An examination of the dynamics of a class of disequilibrium models developed in earlier Working Paper 8504, using both graphics and analysis to show that non-Walrasian equilibria can be steady states for disequilibrium models.
PDF file 656K
Working Paper 8504 top
Fixprice Models for Dynamic Studies
by Eric A. Kades
A specification of static fixprice (or disequilibrium) models developed for dynamic extension in the companion piece, Working Paper 8505. This paper, using only static analysis, gives the disequilibrium explanation for the existence of business cycles.
PDF file 1,225K
Working Paper 8503 top
Forecasting GNP Using Monthly M1
by Michael L. Bagshaw
A presentation of multivariate time series forecasting in which the data consist of a mixture of quarterly and monthly series. in particular, a monthly series of M1 is used to forecast quarterly GNP.
PDF file 534K
Working Paper 8502 top
Federal Reserve Credibility and the Market's Response to the Weekly M1 Announcements
by William T. Gavin and Nicholas V. Karamouzis
A presentation of new evidence on the issue of Federal Reserve System credibility, examining the response pattern of asset prices to the weekly M1 announcements under different operating procedures and monetary policy regimes.
PDF file 434K
Working Paper 8501 top
A Bureaucratic Theory of Flypaper Effects
by Paul Gary Wyckoff
An analysis of two competing theories, the median voter model and the bureaucratic model, as they relate to how noncategorical grants to communities are spent.
PDF file 539K
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