TIPS Expected Inflation Estimates
The yields on two different kinds of Treasury securities—nominal treasury notes and treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) can be used to calculate a measure of inflation expectations. Because the market's expectations for inflation are priced into one of these securities, the measure that is derived from the yields is a good estimate of the market's estimate of future inflation. The calculation involves correcting for some biases, and the method is described here . The measure is charted below and for comparison a series that has not been corrected for the biases is charted alongside. You can also chart two other measures of inflation expectations,too.
Click here to view/download the entire TIPS data text file
TIPS
TIPS
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/1 Percent 2.502
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/2 Percent 2.533
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/3 Percent 2.714
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/4 Percent 2.637
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/5 Percent 2.5
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/6 Percent 2.333
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/7 Percent 2.301
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/8 Percent 2.367
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/9 Percent 2.5
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/10 Percent 2.518
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/11 Percent 2.469
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/12 Percent 2.34
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/1 Percent 2.401
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/2 Percent 2.519
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/3 Percent 2.525
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/4 Percent 2.579
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/5 Percent 2.665
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/6 Percent 2.576
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/7 Percent 2.576
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/8 Percent 2.581
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/9 Percent 2.391
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/10 Percent 2.309
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/11 Percent 2.3
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/12 Percent 2.308
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/1 Percent 2.32
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/2 Percent 2.363
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/3 Percent 2.388
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/4 Percent 2.437
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/5 Percent 2.375
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/6 Percent 2.413
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/7 Percent 2.358
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/8 Percent 2.232
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/9 Percent 2.262
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/10 Percent 2.315
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/11 Percent 2.382
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/12 Percent 2.306
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/1 Percent 2.254
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/2 Percent 2.342
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/3 Percent 2.413
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/4 Percent 2.328
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/5 Percent 2.456
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/6 Percent 2.504
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/7 Percent 2.52
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/1 Percent 2.468
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/2 Percent 2.439
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/3 Percent 2.727
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/4 Percent 2.558
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/5 Percent 2.333
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/6 Percent 2.096
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/7 Percent 1.996
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/8 Percent 2.167
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/9 Percent 2.389
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/10 Percent 2.491
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/11 Percent 2.669
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/12 Percent 2.461
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/1 Percent 2.327
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/2 Percent 2.509
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/3 Percent 2.599
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/4 Percent 2.488
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/5 Percent 2.537
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/6 Percent 2.421
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/7 Percent 2.245
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/8 Percent 2.277
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/9 Percent 2.169
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/10 Percent 1.983
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/11 Percent 1.935
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/12 Percent 1.975
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/1 Percent 1.98
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/2 Percent 2.14
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/3 Percent 2.259
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/4 Percent 2.262
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/5 Percent 2.182
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/6 Percent 2.277
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/7 Percent 2.22
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/8 Percent 2.504
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/9 Percent 2.374
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/10 Percent 2.32
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/11 Percent 2.763
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/12 Percent 2.904
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/1 Percent 2.861
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/2 Percent 3.194
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/3 Percent 3.326
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/4 Percent 3.213
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/5 Percent 3.325
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/6 Percent 3.361
Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/7 Percent 3.328
Note: Household inflation expectations (5-10 years ahead) series is for charting purposes only. It cannot be downloaded from here as we don't have permission to redistribute.
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Click here to view/download the entire TIPS data text file
