May 2006

U.S. Domestic Net Migration

Population change has two sources: natural increase (births and deaths) and migration, domestic and international. Because the rate of natural increase is about the same throughout the nation, and international migration is small, domestic migration plays a large role in determining population growth across areas. How does the Fourth District’s domestic migration compare with the rest of the nation?

The Northeast census region, of which Pennsylvania is a part, had a higher rate of population loss than any of the nation’s other three regions: On net, the Northeast lost 6.1 people per thousand residents in the 1990s and 4.6 per thousand since 2000. The Midwest, of which Ohio is a part, also posted net losses in the 1990s (–1.2) and since 2000 (–2.5). Kentucky and West Virginia belong to the South, which was the fastest-growing region in both periods.

Fourth District States, Domestic Net Migration

At the state level, Pennsylvania lost residents in both periods, although its net migration rate in 2000–04 improved on its 1990s rate. Ohio, like Pennsylvania, lost residents in both periods, but its rate of loss was higher in 2000–04. On the other hand, Kentucky and West Virginia have been attracting residents from other states since 1990, like the rest of the South.

Looking at the entire nation, we find that Kentucky and West Virginia show some of the better population gains from other states. Of all the states’ annual domestic net migration rates for 2000–04, Kentucky ranked twentieth and West Virginia came in twenty-third. In fact, at a time when California and New York were losing residents to other states, Kentucky and West Virginia were gaining them.

Direction of Migration Flows

The direction of migration flows for all four District states was the same in 2000–04 as in the 1990s. Wyoming, Maine, Rhode Island, and Maryland lost residents to other states in the 1990s, then gained residents from them in 2000–04. Utah, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Indiana, and Minnesota did just the opposite, gaining residents from other states in the 1990s but losing them in the years that followed.

Domestic Net Migration by Metropolitan Statistical Area

The District’s three largest metropolitan areas all lost population, on net, to other areas in the post-2000 period. Cleveland had the lowest average annual domestic net migration rate, losing about 12,300 people per year since 2000. Pittsburgh’s net annual loss during the period averaged 5,700 residents, and Cincinnati’s loss averaged 2,200.

Domestic Net Migration by County

However, a breakdown of domestic migration rates by county shows that the suburbs around major cities are growing fast. For example, average annual domestic migration rates have been 10% or better since 2000 in Delaware, Union, Monroe, Knox, and Fairfield counties near Columbus, Warren and Boone counties near Cincinnati, Medina County near Cleveland, and Scott County near Lexington.